Michael Saylor 的微观策略是在 5 年内发行债务购买 200,000 枚比特币

比特币（$BTC）周四短暂上涨至 77,000 美元，美国现货比特币 ETF 录得自该基金成立以来最大的每日净流入

The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are continuing to buy huge amounts of BTC, which is having the effect of driving the price even higher. On Thursday, the ETFs recorded their biggest daily net inflow since being launched on January 11 this year. Of the 17.99K BTC purchased by the funds, Blackrock’s IBIT was responsible for the vast majority, with a 14.63K BTC purchase.

美国现货比特币 ETF 继续大量购买比特币，这导致价格进一步走高。周四，ETF 录得自今年 1 月 11 日推出以来的最大单日净流入。在这些基金购买的 17,990 个 BTC 中，贝莱德的 IBIT 占据了绝大多数，购买了 14,630 个 BTC。

To put this one-day purchase into perspective, the total daily issuance of Bitcoin is 450 BTC. Therefore, the total buying by the ETF funds on Thursday was nearly 40 times the total daily mined amount.

以一日购买为例，比特币每日发行总量为 450 BTC。因此，周四ETF基金的总买入量是日开采总量的近40倍。

This massive buying is also being aided by other large institutions, such as Microstrategy, which is planning to buy an additional 200,000 BTC over the next five years by issuing debt. At the same time, the next U.S. administration is also planning to look at legislation that would require the U.S. to buy and hold large amounts of BTC in a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

这种大规模购买也得到了其他大型机构的帮助，例如 Microstrategy 计划在未来五年内通过发行债券额外购买 200,000 BTC。与此同时，下一届美国政府还计划考虑立法，要求美国购买并持有大量比特币作为战略比特币储备。

This is all part of a larger trend, with other countries also being expected to follow suit, which could potentially create a feeding frenzy on an asset that is like no other in the financial world.

这是一个更大趋势的一部分，预计其他国家也会效仿，这可能会引发对金融界独一无二的资产的疯狂追逐。

On the shorter time frames, it appears that the price has managed to get above the ascending channel, which is a very bullish move. This move was no doubt aided by the Spot Bitcoin ETF purchases on Thursday. If Friday is another big net inflow day, BTC could make the top of the channel a more definitive support, together with the $76,000 horizontal level.

在较短的时间范围内，价格似乎已成功突破上升通道，这是一个非常看涨的走势。这一举措无疑得益于周四现货比特币 ETF 的购买。如果周五是另一个大净流入日，那么 BTC 可能会使通道顶部以及 76,000 美元的水平位成为更明确的支撑位。

The Fibonacci sequence on the chart is only valid if $77,000 does become the top for this upside move. If this is the case, the retracement levels are $74,600, $73,000, $71,900, $70,700, and the absolute base case of $69,000, which is the deepest 0.786 Fibonacci level, and the top of the 2021 bull market.

图表上的斐波那契序列仅在 77,000 美元确实成为此上涨走势的顶部时才有效。如果是这种情况，回撤位为 74,600 美元、73,000 美元、71,900 美元、70,700 美元，绝对基本情况为 69,000 美元，这是最深的 0.786 斐波那契水平，也是 2021 年牛市的顶部。

For momentum purposes, the 4-hour Stochastic RSI is on its way down, while the 8-hour and 12-hour are still very near the top. The 1-day Stochastic RSI is approaching the top. This would generally indicate that the bulls are tiring somewhat, and that some kind of a retrace would probably be forthcoming.

就动量而言，4 小时随机 RSI 正在下降，而 8 小时和 12 小时随机 RSI 仍非常接近顶部。 1 日随机 RSI 正在接近顶部。这通常表明多头有些疲倦，并且可能即将出现某种回调。

On the longer time frames, it is clear to see how important the previous bull market high of $69,000 has become. The eight months of repeatedly tapping on that resistance level displayed just how tough this nut was to crack. Now that resistance has been broken, and assuming that the current 2-week candle closes above, it really should be onwards and upwards from here.

从较长的时间范围来看，可以清楚地看到之前牛市高点 69,000 美元的重要性。八个月的反复敲击该阻力位表明了这个坚果是多么难以破解。现在该阻力位已被突破，假设当前两周蜡烛图收于上方，那么它确实应该从这里向前和向上。

As already discussed, there may be a bit of chop to come over the next several days, as the short-term Stochastic RSI momentum indicators come back down, but when one sees that the weekly, 2-week, and monthly indicators are angled upward, it could be expected that the price increases for BTC continue, at least into the end of the year, and perhaps some way into 2025.

正如已经讨论过的，随着短期随机 RSI 动量指标回落，但当人们看到每周、两周和每月指标向上倾斜时，未来几天可能会出现一些波动，预计 BTC 的价格将持续上涨，至少会持续到今年年底，或许会持续到 2025 年。