Michael Saylor 的微觀策略是在 5 年內發行債務購買 20 萬枚比特幣

比特幣（$BTC）週四短暫上漲至 77,000 美元，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 錄得自該基金成立以來最大的每日淨流入

The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are continuing to buy huge amounts of BTC, which is having the effect of driving the price even higher. On Thursday, the ETFs recorded their biggest daily net inflow since being launched on January 11 this year. Of the 17.99K BTC purchased by the funds, Blackrock’s IBIT was responsible for the vast majority, with a 14.63K BTC purchase.

美國現貨比特幣 ETF 繼續大量購買比特幣，這導致價格進一步走高。週四，ETF 錄得自今年 1 月 11 日推出以來的最大單日淨流入。在這些基金購買的 17,990 個 BTC 中，貝萊德的 IBIT 佔了絕大多數，購買了 14,630 個 BTC。

To put this one-day purchase into perspective, the total daily issuance of Bitcoin is 450 BTC. Therefore, the total buying by the ETF funds on Thursday was nearly 40 times the total daily mined amount.

以一日購買為例，比特幣每日發行總量為 450 BTC。因此，週四ETF基金的總買量是日開採總量的近40倍。

This massive buying is also being aided by other large institutions, such as Microstrategy, which is planning to buy an additional 200,000 BTC over the next five years by issuing debt. At the same time, the next U.S. administration is also planning to look at legislation that would require the U.S. to buy and hold large amounts of BTC in a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

這種大規模購買也得到了其他大型機構的幫助，例如 Microstrategy 計劃在未來五年內透過發行債券額外購買 20 萬BTC。同時，下一屆美國政府也計劃考慮立法，要求美國購買並持有大量比特幣作為戰略比特幣儲備。

This is all part of a larger trend, with other countries also being expected to follow suit, which could potentially create a feeding frenzy on an asset that is like no other in the financial world.

這是一個更大趨勢的一部分，預計其他國家也會效仿，這可能會引發對金融界獨一無二的資產的瘋狂追逐。

On the shorter time frames, it appears that the price has managed to get above the ascending channel, which is a very bullish move. This move was no doubt aided by the Spot Bitcoin ETF purchases on Thursday. If Friday is another big net inflow day, BTC could make the top of the channel a more definitive support, together with the $76,000 horizontal level.

在較短的時間範圍內，價格似乎已成功突破上升通道，這是一個非常看漲的走勢。這項舉措無疑得益於週四現貨比特幣 ETF 的購買。如果週五是另一個大淨流入日，那麼 BTC 可能會使通道頂部以及 76,000 美元的水平位成為更明確的支撐位。

The Fibonacci sequence on the chart is only valid if $77,000 does become the top for this upside move. If this is the case, the retracement levels are $74,600, $73,000, $71,900, $70,700, and the absolute base case of $69,000, which is the deepest 0.786 Fibonacci level, and the top of the 2021 bull market.

圖表上的斐波那契序列僅在 77,000 美元確實成為此上漲走勢的頂部時才有效。如果是這種情況，回檔位為 74,600 美元、73,000 美元、71,900 美元、70,700 美元，絕對基本情況為 69,000 美元，這是最深的 0.786 斐波那契水平，也是 2021 年牛市的頂部。

For momentum purposes, the 4-hour Stochastic RSI is on its way down, while the 8-hour and 12-hour are still very near the top. The 1-day Stochastic RSI is approaching the top. This would generally indicate that the bulls are tiring somewhat, and that some kind of a retrace would probably be forthcoming.

就動量而言，4 小時隨機 RSI 正在下降，而 8 小時和 12 小時隨機 RSI 仍非常接近頂部。 1 日隨機 RSI 正在接近頂部。這通常表示多頭有些疲倦，並且可能即將出現某種回調。

On the longer time frames, it is clear to see how important the previous bull market high of $69,000 has become. The eight months of repeatedly tapping on that resistance level displayed just how tough this nut was to crack. Now that resistance has been broken, and assuming that the current 2-week candle closes above, it really should be onwards and upwards from here.

從較長的時間範圍來看，可以清楚地看到之前牛市高點 69,000 美元的重要性。八個月的反覆敲擊該阻力位表明了這個堅果是多麼難以破解。現在該阻力位已被突破，假設當前兩週蠟燭圖收於上方，那麼它確實應該從這裡向前和向上。

As already discussed, there may be a bit of chop to come over the next several days, as the short-term Stochastic RSI momentum indicators come back down, but when one sees that the weekly, 2-week, and monthly indicators are angled upward, it could be expected that the price increases for BTC continue, at least into the end of the year, and perhaps some way into 2025.

如同已經討論過的，隨著短期隨機 RSI 動量指標回落，但當人們看到每週、兩週和每月指標向上傾斜時，未來幾天可能會出現一些波動，預計BTC 的價格將持續上漲，至少會持續到今年底，或許會持續到2025 年。