比特币减半前的重大加密货币事件着眼于市场波动

周五的重大市场事件将决定加密货币市场的方向，其中比特币和以太坊期权将迎来历史上最大的到期。 Deribit 将结算超过 150 亿美元的 BTC 和 ETH 期权，其中 95 亿美元的 BTC 和 57 亿美元的 ETH 期权即将到期。尽管加密货币贪婪和恐惧指数略有下降，表明到期后可能出现买盘，但市场情绪仍然乐观。交易员还在关注美国经济分析局发布的通胀数据以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于宏观经济的讲话。

Major Crypto Events to Shape Market Direction Ahead of Bitcoin Halving

比特币减半前影响市场方向的重大加密事件

On Friday, the cryptocurrency market stands poised at a pivotal juncture, as a confluence of major events promises to determine its trajectory in the coming days. Colossal Bitcoin and Ethereum options expirations, coupled with pivotal economic data releases and a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will undoubtedly sway market sentiment and influence price movements.

周五，加密货币市场正处于一个关键时刻，一系列重大事件有望决定未来几天的走势。巨大的比特币和以太坊期权到期，加上关键的经济数据发布以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔备受期待的讲话，无疑将影响市场情绪并影响价格走势。

Crypto Derivatives Exchange Settles Massive Bitcoin and Ethereum Options

加密衍生品交易所解决了大量比特币和以太坊期权

The crypto landscape braces for the largest crypto expiry in history, as leading crypto derivatives exchange Deribit prepares to settle over $15 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. This gargantuan surge in activity signifies the immense growth and maturation of the crypto derivatives market. With $9.5 billion in BTC options open interest expiring alongside $5.7 billion in ETH options, the potential for market volatility and price swings cannot be underestimated.

随着领先的加密货币衍生品交易所 Deribit 准备结算超过 150 亿美元的比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 期权，加密货币格局即将迎来历史上最大规模的加密货币到期。这种活动的激增标志着加密货币衍生品市场的巨大增长和成熟。由于 95 亿美元的 BTC 期权未平仓合约以及 57 亿美元的 ETH 期权即将到期，市场波动和价格波动的潜力不容低估。

U.S. Economic Data and Fed Chair's Speech to Impact Inflation Expectations

美国经济数据和美联储主席讲话影响通胀预期

Friday's economic calendar also holds significant implications for the crypto market. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauges. While experts anticipate a further cooling of inflation, the annual value has the potential to surprise the market and exert pressure on crypto prices.

周五的经济日历也对加密货币市场产生重大影响。美国经济分析局将发布个人消费支出（PCE）和核心PCE，这是美联储首选的通胀指标。尽管专家预计通胀将进一步降温，但年度价值有可能令市场感到意外并对加密货币价格施加压力。

Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on macroeconomics and monetary policy on March 29. Investors will listen intently to his remarks, seeking insights into the central bank's future policy decisions and their potential impact on the crypto market.

此外，美联储主席鲍威尔将于3月29日就宏观经济和货币政策发表讲话。投资者将专心聆听他的讲话，深入了解央行未来的政策决策及其对加密货币市场的潜在影响。

Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Analysis

比特币和以太坊期权到期分析

Traders eagerly await the monthly and quarterly options expiry, characterized by massive buying and selling activity. The Crypto Greed and Fear Index, which measures market sentiment, has registered a slight decline from 83 to 80, indicating a cautious approach among investors ahead of the expiry and PCE inflation data.

交易者热切地等待月度和季度期权到期，其特点是大量的买卖活动。衡量市场情绪的加密货币贪婪和恐惧指数从 83 略有下降至 80，表明投资者在到期和 PCE 通胀数据之前采取谨慎态度。

Deribit's data reveals a massive $9.5 billion in BTC options open interest expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.85. This suggests that traders are positioning themselves for both upside and downside scenarios. The max pain point, where the most options contracts will expire worthless, is currently set at $51,000, indicating expectations of significant price volatility and potential reshuffling of positions.

Deribit 的数据显示，价值 95 亿美元的 BTC 期权未平仓合约即将到期，看跌期权与看涨期权比率为 0.85。这表明交易者正在为上行和下行情况做好准备。最大痛点（大多数期权合约到期时将毫无价值）目前设定为 51,000 美元，表明预计价格将大幅波动，头寸可能会重新调整。

Meanwhile, 1,575K ETH options worth almost $5.6 billion are approaching expiration, with a put-call ratio of 0.63 and a max pain point of $2,600. Traders will closely monitor trading volume fluctuations for confirmation of recovery or a potential decline in ETH prices.

与此同时，价值近 56 亿美元的 1,575,000 个 ETH 期权即将到期，看跌期权与看涨期权比率为 0.63，最大痛点为 2,600 美元。交易者将密切关注交易量波动，以确认 ETH 价格的复苏或潜在下跌。

Analyst Perspectives on Post-Expiry Rally Potential

分析师对到期后反弹潜力的看法

Despite the high levels of anticipation surrounding the options expiry, analysts caution against immediate expectations of a sustained rally in the crypto market. The release of PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech are likely to exert downward pressure on BTC prices.

尽管人们对期权到期的预期很高，但分析师警告不要立即预期加密货币市场将持续上涨。 PCE通胀数据的发布以及美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话可能会给BTC价格带来下行压力。

However, some analysts remain optimistic, citing the potential for strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs to mitigate the impact of options expiry. Analyst Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin has the potential to reach new all-time highs if it remains above $67K, while Markus Thielen predicts a surge towards $100K and even $140K after the Bitcoin halving.

然而，一些分析师仍然保持乐观，理由是现货比特币 ETF 的强劲需求可能会减轻期权到期的影响。分析师 Michael van de Poppe 认为，如果比特币保持在 6.7 万美元以上，就有可能创下历史新高，而 Markus Thielen 预测比特币减半后，比特币价格将飙升至 10 万美元，甚至 14 万美元。

Market Volatility and Strategic Positioning

市场波动与战略定位

As options expiry approaches, market volatility is expected to intensify, creating opportunities for both long and short-term traders. With prices potentially fluctuating significantly, investors should carefully manage their risk exposure and adopt a strategic approach to positioning.

随着期权到期日的临近，市场波动预计将加剧，为长期和短期交易者创造机会。由于价格可能大幅波动，投资者应谨慎管理风险敞口并采取战略定位方法。

Traders can monitor the open interest and volume of options contracts, as well as the put-call ratio, to gauge market sentiment and identify potential price targets. Technical analysis and fundamental insights can further aid in decision-making, enabling traders to navigate the upcoming market turbulence with greater precision.

交易者可以监控期权合约的未平仓合约和交易量以及看跌期权比率，以衡量市场情绪并确定潜在的价格目标。技术分析和基本面洞察可以进一步帮助决策，使交易者能够更精确地应对即将到来的市场动荡。

Conclusion

结论

The confluence of major events on Friday presents a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market. The massive Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry, coupled with the release of key economic data and a highly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Powell, will undoubtedly shape market direction in the coming days. While opportunities exist for both bulls and bears, investors must proceed with caution, carefully managing their risk exposure and utilizing a comprehensive approach to trading in this volatile and rapidly evolving market landscape.

周五重大事件的汇合为加密货币市场带来了关键时刻。大规模的比特币和以太坊期权到期，加上关键经济数据的发布以及美联储主席鲍威尔备受期待的讲话，无疑将在未来几天塑造市场方向。虽然多头和空头都存在机会，但投资者必须谨慎行事，仔细管理风险敞口，并在这个动荡且快速变化的市场环境中采用综合方法进行交易。