比特幣減半前的重大加密貨幣事件著眼於市場波動

週五的重大市場事件將決定加密貨幣市場的方向，其中比特幣和以太坊選擇權將迎來歷史上最大的到期。 Deribit 將結算超過 150 億美元的 BTC 和 ETH 選擇權，其中 95 億美元的 BTC 和 57 億美元的 ETH 選擇權即將到期。儘管加密貨幣貪婪和恐懼指數略有下降，表明到期後可能出現買盤，但市場情緒仍然樂觀。交易員也正在關注美國經濟分析局發布的通膨數據以及聯準會主席鮑威爾關於宏觀經濟的演講。

Major Crypto Events to Shape Market Direction Ahead of Bitcoin Halving

比特幣減半前影響市場方向的重大加密事件

On Friday, the cryptocurrency market stands poised at a pivotal juncture, as a confluence of major events promises to determine its trajectory in the coming days. Colossal Bitcoin and Ethereum options expirations, coupled with pivotal economic data releases and a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will undoubtedly sway market sentiment and influence price movements.

週五，加密貨幣市場正處於一個關鍵時刻，一系列重大事件有望決定未來幾天的趨勢。巨大的比特幣和以太坊選擇權到期，加上關鍵的經濟數據發布以及聯準會主席鮑威爾備受期待的講話，無疑將影響市場情緒並影響價格走勢。

Crypto Derivatives Exchange Settles Massive Bitcoin and Ethereum Options

加密衍生性商品交易所解決了大量比特幣和以太坊期權

The crypto landscape braces for the largest crypto expiry in history, as leading crypto derivatives exchange Deribit prepares to settle over $15 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. This gargantuan surge in activity signifies the immense growth and maturation of the crypto derivatives market. With $9.5 billion in BTC options open interest expiring alongside $5.7 billion in ETH options, the potential for market volatility and price swings cannot be underestimated.

隨著領先的加密貨幣衍生品交易所 Deribit 準備結算超過 150 億美元的比特幣 (BTC) 和以太幣 (ETH) 選擇權，加密貨幣格局即將迎來歷史上最大規模的加密貨幣到期。這種活動的激增標誌著加密貨幣衍生性商品市場的巨大成長和成熟。由於 95 億美元的 BTC 選擇權未平倉合約以及 57 億美元的 ETH 選擇權即將到期，市場波動和價格波動的潛力不容小覷。

U.S. Economic Data and Fed Chair's Speech to Impact Inflation Expectations

美國經濟數據和聯準會主席講話影響通膨預期

Friday's economic calendar also holds significant implications for the crypto market. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauges. While experts anticipate a further cooling of inflation, the annual value has the potential to surprise the market and exert pressure on crypto prices.

週五的經濟日曆也對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響。美國經濟分析局將發布個人消費支出（PCE）和核心PCE，這是聯準會首選的通膨指標。儘管專家預計通膨將進一步降溫，但年度價值有可能令市場感到意外並對加密貨幣價格施加壓力。

Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on macroeconomics and monetary policy on March 29. Investors will listen intently to his remarks, seeking insights into the central bank's future policy decisions and their potential impact on the crypto market.

此外，聯準會主席鮑威爾將於3月29日就宏觀經濟和貨幣政策發表講話。投資者將專心聆聽他的講話，深入了解央行未來的政策決策及其對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響。

Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Analysis

比特幣和以太坊期權到期分析

Traders eagerly await the monthly and quarterly options expiry, characterized by massive buying and selling activity. The Crypto Greed and Fear Index, which measures market sentiment, has registered a slight decline from 83 to 80, indicating a cautious approach among investors ahead of the expiry and PCE inflation data.

交易者熱切地等待月度和季度期權到期，其特點是大量的買賣活動。衡量市場情緒的加密貨幣貪婪和恐懼指數從 83 略有下降至 80，顯示投資者在到期和 PCE 通膨數據之前採取謹慎態度。

Deribit's data reveals a massive $9.5 billion in BTC options open interest expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.85. This suggests that traders are positioning themselves for both upside and downside scenarios. The max pain point, where the most options contracts will expire worthless, is currently set at $51,000, indicating expectations of significant price volatility and potential reshuffling of positions.

Deribit 的數據顯示，價值 95 億美元的 BTC 選擇權未平倉合約即將到期，賣權與買權比率為 0.85。這表明交易者正在為上行和下行情況做好準備。最大痛點（大多數選擇權合約到期時將毫無價值）目前設定為 51,000 美元，表明預計價格將大幅波動，頭寸可能會重新調整。

Meanwhile, 1,575K ETH options worth almost $5.6 billion are approaching expiration, with a put-call ratio of 0.63 and a max pain point of $2,600. Traders will closely monitor trading volume fluctuations for confirmation of recovery or a potential decline in ETH prices.

同時，價值近 56 億美元的 1,575,000 個 ETH 選擇權即將到期，看跌期權與看漲期權比率為 0.63，最大痛點為 2,600 美元。交易者將密切關注交易量波動，以確認 ETH 價格的復甦或潛在下跌。

Analyst Perspectives on Post-Expiry Rally Potential

分析師對到期後反彈潛力的看法

Despite the high levels of anticipation surrounding the options expiry, analysts caution against immediate expectations of a sustained rally in the crypto market. The release of PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech are likely to exert downward pressure on BTC prices.

儘管人們對選擇權到期的預期很高，但分析師警告不要立即預期加密貨幣市場將持續上漲。 PCE通膨數據的發布以及聯準會主席鮑威爾的演講可能會對BTC價格造成下行壓力。

However, some analysts remain optimistic, citing the potential for strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs to mitigate the impact of options expiry. Analyst Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin has the potential to reach new all-time highs if it remains above $67K, while Markus Thielen predicts a surge towards $100K and even $140K after the Bitcoin halving.

然而，一些分析師仍然保持樂觀，理由是現貨比特幣 ETF 的強勁需求可能會減輕選擇權到期的影響。分析師 Michael van de Poppe 認為，如果比特幣維持在 6.7 萬美元以上，就有可能創下歷史新高，而 Markus Thielen 預測比特幣減半後，比特幣價格將飆升至 10 萬美元，甚至 14 萬美元。

Market Volatility and Strategic Positioning

市場波動與策略定位

As options expiry approaches, market volatility is expected to intensify, creating opportunities for both long and short-term traders. With prices potentially fluctuating significantly, investors should carefully manage their risk exposure and adopt a strategic approach to positioning.

隨著選擇權到期日的臨近，市場波動預計將加劇，為長期和短期交易者創造機會。由於價格可能大幅波動，投資者應謹慎管理風險敞口並採取策略定位方法。

Traders can monitor the open interest and volume of options contracts, as well as the put-call ratio, to gauge market sentiment and identify potential price targets. Technical analysis and fundamental insights can further aid in decision-making, enabling traders to navigate the upcoming market turbulence with greater precision.

交易者可以監控選擇權合約的未平倉合約和交易量以及看跌選擇權比率，以衡量市場情緒並確定潛在的價格目標。技術分析和基本面洞察可以進一步幫助決策，使交易者能夠更精確地應對即將到來的市場動盪。

Conclusion

結論

The confluence of major events on Friday presents a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market. The massive Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry, coupled with the release of key economic data and a highly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Powell, will undoubtedly shape market direction in the coming days. While opportunities exist for both bulls and bears, investors must proceed with caution, carefully managing their risk exposure and utilizing a comprehensive approach to trading in this volatile and rapidly evolving market landscape.

週五重大事件的匯合為加密貨幣市場帶來了關鍵時刻。大規模的比特幣和以太坊選擇權到期，加上關鍵經濟數據的發布以及聯準會主席鮑威爾備受期待的講話，無疑將在未來幾天塑造市場方向。雖然多頭和空頭都存在機會，但投資者必須謹慎行事，仔細管理風險敞口，並在這個動盪且快速變化的市場環境中採用綜合方法進行交易。