如何投资币安Alpha？短期、中长期上市效应详实数据分析

自币安于 12 月 18 日上线 Binance Alpha 以来，共有 38 个代币上线。第一阶段大部分代币都是高市值代币，价格涨幅相对较小

Since Binance launched Binance Alpha on December 18, a total of 38 tokens have been listed. The first phase saw most of the tokens being high market cap tokens, resulting in relatively insignificant price increases; however, the fifth phase's WHALES experienced significant increases due to their very small market cap. So how should one invest?

自币安于 12 月 18 日上线 Binance Alpha 以来，共有 38 个代币上线。第一阶段，大部分代币都是高市值代币，价格涨幅相对较小；然而，第五阶段的鲸鱼由于其市值非常小而出现了显着的增长。那么应该如何投资呢？

In this article, we will answer several questions through detailed data:

在这篇文章中，我们将通过详细的数据回答几个问题：

- What is the short-term listing effect?

- 短期上市效果如何？

- What is the medium to long-term listing effect?

- 中长期上市效果如何？

- Are there different price fluctuation patterns across different chains?

- 不同链之间的价格波动模式是否不同？

- Is there a correlation between the listing effect and market cap?

- 上市效应与市值之间是否存在相关性？

Data Overview

数据概览

The 5-minute price changes, 1-hour price changes, and cumulative price changes since listing for the 38 tokens in the six phases of Binance Alpha are shown in the table below. All price data comes from TradingView's 5-minute candlestick chart; market cap is the circulating market cap from CoinGecko.

Binance Alpha 6个阶段的38个币种的5分钟价格变化、1小时价格变化以及上市以来的累计价格变化如下表所示。所有价格数据均来自TradingView的5分钟烛台图；市值是 CoinGecko 的流通市值。

To objectively compare whether the cumulative price changes outperform the overall market, this article selects three tokens as reference objects: arc on Solana, VIRTUAL on Base, and BTC. (Note: PSTAKE was omitted here as no sufficiently liquid trading pairs could be found, resulting in significant price volatility.)

为了客观比较累计价格变化是否跑赢整体市场，本文选取了 Solana 上的 arc、Base 上的 VIRTUAL 和 BTC 三种代币作为参考对象。 （注：这里省略了 PSTAKE，因为找不到足够流动性的交易对，导致价格大幅波动。）

What is the short-term listing effect?

短期上市效果如何？

From the table above, we can see that the average 5-minute price changes from the first to the sixth phase are all positive, at 14%, 23%, 18%, 5%, 22%, and 0%, respectively. This indicates that Binance Alpha does have a short-term listing effect, but it is certainly much less significant compared to Binance's own platform. For reference, the average 5-minute listing effect of Moonshot is about 30%, which is relatively close.

从上表可以看出，第一阶段到第六阶段的平均5分钟价格变化均为正值，分别为14%、23%、18%、5%、22%和0%。这表明币安Alpha确实具有短期上币效应，但与币安自有平台相比肯定要小得多。作为参考，Moonshot平均5分钟上币效果约为30%，比较接近。

However, further analysis shows that the short-term price increases are mainly contributed by one or two standout tokens, while most tokens have negligible price increases.

但进一步分析发现，短期价格上涨主要是由一两个表现突出的代币贡献的，而大多数代币的价格涨幅可以忽略不计。

The following chart shows the price changes in three different time periods, clearly indicating that the red sections (5-minute price increases) have a few standout bars, but most price increases are very small.

下图显示了三个不同时间段的价格变化，清楚地表明红色部分（5 分钟价格上涨）有一些突出的条形，但大多数价格上涨都很小。

What is the medium to long-term listing effect?

中长期上市效果如何？

Using the 1-hour closing price as a reference, the table shows that most tokens maintain positive price increases (green bars above the 0 axis) one hour after listing.

以1小时收盘价为参考，该表显示大多数代币在上市一小时后保持正价格上涨（0轴上方的绿色条）。

Considering users who may not buy quickly, comparing the 1-hour closing price to the 5-minute closing price (where green bars below red bars indicate relative declines), the relative price changes for the six phases are -10%, -7%, 3%, -3%, 4%, and 4%. This means that if you buy in too late, you may get stuck in the mid-term.

考虑到用户可能不会很快买入，比较1小时收盘价和5分钟收盘价（其中红条下面的绿条表示相对下跌），六期相对价格变化分别为-10%、-7% 、3%、-3%、4% 和 4%。这意味着如果你买得太晚，你可能会陷入中期困境。

How does the long-term performance look? The blue bars in the chart clearly show that after listing on Binance Alpha, these tokens have significantly better long-term price increases compared to short-term increases. For most users, it is more suitable to first research which projects are of high quality after listing, then wait for a pullback to buy in and anticipate long-term gains.

长期表现如何？图表中的蓝色条清楚地表明，在币安 Alpha 上市后，这些代币的长期价格涨幅明显好于短期涨幅。对于大多数用户来说，更适合上市后先研究哪些项目优质，然后等待回调买入，预期长期收益。

Is the long-term price increase driven by the overall upward trend in the crypto market, or is there indeed an influence from the platform? Through the three comparison groups of arc, VIRTUAL, and BTC, we can see that the overall market was in a downward trend during the first three batches of listings, yet the listed tokens still had positive price increases. Therefore, overall, listing on Binance Alpha is indeed a long-term benefit for tokens.

长期价格上涨是加密市场整体上涨趋势推动的，还是确实有平台的影响？通过arc、VIRTUAL、BTC这三个对比组我们可以看到，前三批上市期间，整体市场处于下跌趋势，但上市代币仍然出现了积极的价格上涨。因此，总体而言，上线Binance Alpha对于代币来说确实是一个长期利益。

Do different chains exhibit different price fluctuation patterns?

不同的链是否表现出不同的价格波动模式？

Organizing by chain, the data tables and bar charts are shown below. The differences among the chains are very obvious; Ethereum leads significantly in 5-minute price changes, while Base is the weakest; in terms of long-term price increases, Solana is far ahead, with the other three chains showing little difference.

按链式组织，数据表和条形图如下所示。各链条之间的差异非常明显；以太坊在5分钟价格变化中显着领先，而Base最弱；从长期价格涨幅来看，Solana 遥遥领先，其他三大链相差不大。

The data for Solana chain tokens is as follows. Overall, the 5-minute and 1-hour price changes show little difference, while the long-term price increase is far ahead, making it possibly the most suitable chain to participate in Binance Alpha.

Solana 链代币的数据如下。总体来看，5分钟和1小时价格变化差别不大，而长期价格涨幅遥遥领先，可能是最适合参与Binance Alpha的链。

The data for Ethereum is shown below. The differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price changes are relatively larger compared to Solana. The average 5-minute price increase is 24%, and the average 1-hour price increase is 17%, but the cumulative price increase since listing is only 24%. Ethereum requires extremely high gas costs to secure a favorable position in the short term, but the overall price increase is not significant, making it currently the least valuable to participate in.

以太坊的数据如下所示。与 Solana 相比，5 分钟和 1 小时价格变化的差异相对较大。 5分钟平均涨幅为24%，1小时平均涨幅为17%，但上市以来累计涨幅仅为24%。以太坊需要极高的 Gas 成本才能在短期内获得有利地位，但整体价格涨幅并不大，目前参与价值最低。

The data for BNB Chain is shown in the chart below. The differences between the 5-minute and 1-hour price changes further expand, but it can be

BNB Chain的数据如下图所示。 5分钟和1小时价格变化的差异进一步扩大，但可以