如何投資幣安Alpha？短期、中長期上市效應詳實數據分析

自幣安於 12 月 18 日上線 Binance Alpha 以來，共有 38 個代幣上線。第一階段大部分代幣都是高市值代幣，價格漲幅相對較小

Since Binance launched Binance Alpha on December 18, a total of 38 tokens have been listed. The first phase saw most of the tokens being high market cap tokens, resulting in relatively insignificant price increases; however, the fifth phase's WHALES experienced significant increases due to their very small market cap. So how should one invest?

自幣安於 12 月 18 日上線 Binance Alpha 以來，共有 38 個代幣上線。第一階段，大部分代幣都是高市值代幣，價格漲幅相對較小；然而，第五階段的鯨魚由於其市值非常小而出現了顯著的增長。那麼該如何投資呢？

In this article, we will answer several questions through detailed data:

在這篇文章中，我們將透過詳細的數據回答幾個問題：

- What is the short-term listing effect?

- 短期上市效果如何？

- What is the medium to long-term listing effect?

- 中長期上市效果如何？

- Are there different price fluctuation patterns across different chains?

- 不同鏈之間的價格波動模式是否不同？

- Is there a correlation between the listing effect and market cap?

- 上市效應與市值之間是否有相關性？

Data Overview

數據概覽

The 5-minute price changes, 1-hour price changes, and cumulative price changes since listing for the 38 tokens in the six phases of Binance Alpha are shown in the table below. All price data comes from TradingView's 5-minute candlestick chart; market cap is the circulating market cap from CoinGecko.

Binance Alpha 6個階段的38個幣種的5分鐘價格變動、1小時價格變動、上市以來的累計價格變動如下表所示。所有價格數據均來自TradingView的5分鐘燭台圖；市值是 CoinGecko 的流通市值。

To objectively compare whether the cumulative price changes outperform the overall market, this article selects three tokens as reference objects: arc on Solana, VIRTUAL on Base, and BTC. (Note: PSTAKE was omitted here as no sufficiently liquid trading pairs could be found, resulting in significant price volatility.)

為了客觀比較累積價格變動是否跑贏整體市場，本文選取了 Solana 上的 arc、Base 上的 VIRTUAL 和 BTC 三種代幣作為參考物件。 （註：這裡省略了 PSTAKE，因為找不到足夠流動性的交易對，導致價格大幅波動。）

What is the short-term listing effect?

短期上市效果如何？

From the table above, we can see that the average 5-minute price changes from the first to the sixth phase are all positive, at 14%, 23%, 18%, 5%, 22%, and 0%, respectively. This indicates that Binance Alpha does have a short-term listing effect, but it is certainly much less significant compared to Binance's own platform. For reference, the average 5-minute listing effect of Moonshot is about 30%, which is relatively close.

由上表可看出，第一階段到第六階段的平均5分鐘價格變動均為正值，分別為14%、23%、18%、5%、22%及0%。這顯示幣安Alpha確實具有短期上幣效應，但與幣安自有平台相比肯定小得多。作為參考，Moonshot平均5分鐘上幣效果約30%，比較接近。

However, further analysis shows that the short-term price increases are mainly contributed by one or two standout tokens, while most tokens have negligible price increases.

但進一步分析發現，短期價格上漲主要是由一兩個表現突出的代幣貢獻的，而大多數代幣的價格漲幅可以忽略不計。

The following chart shows the price changes in three different time periods, clearly indicating that the red sections (5-minute price increases) have a few standout bars, but most price increases are very small.

下圖顯示了三個不同時間段的價格變化，清楚地表明紅色部分（5 分鐘價格上漲）有一些突出的條形，但大多數價格上漲都很小。

What is the medium to long-term listing effect?

中長期上市效果如何？

Using the 1-hour closing price as a reference, the table shows that most tokens maintain positive price increases (green bars above the 0 axis) one hour after listing.

以1小時收盤價為參考，該表顯示大多數代幣在上市一小時後保持正價格上漲（0軸上方的綠色條）。

Considering users who may not buy quickly, comparing the 1-hour closing price to the 5-minute closing price (where green bars below red bars indicate relative declines), the relative price changes for the six phases are -10%, -7%, 3%, -3%, 4%, and 4%. This means that if you buy in too late, you may get stuck in the mid-term.

考慮到用戶可能不會很快買入，比較1小時收盤價和5分鐘收盤價（其中紅條下面的綠條表示相對下跌），六期相對價格變化分別為-10%、-7% 、3 %、-3%、4% 和4%。這意味著如果你買得太晚，你可能會陷入中期困境。

How does the long-term performance look? The blue bars in the chart clearly show that after listing on Binance Alpha, these tokens have significantly better long-term price increases compared to short-term increases. For most users, it is more suitable to first research which projects are of high quality after listing, then wait for a pullback to buy in and anticipate long-term gains.

長期表現如何？圖表中的藍色條清楚地表明，在幣安 Alpha 上市後，這些代幣的長期價格漲幅明顯優於短期漲幅。對於大多數用戶來說，更適合上市後先研究哪些項目優質，然後等待回調買入，預期長期收益。

Is the long-term price increase driven by the overall upward trend in the crypto market, or is there indeed an influence from the platform? Through the three comparison groups of arc, VIRTUAL, and BTC, we can see that the overall market was in a downward trend during the first three batches of listings, yet the listed tokens still had positive price increases. Therefore, overall, listing on Binance Alpha is indeed a long-term benefit for tokens.

長期價格上漲是加密市場整體上漲趨勢所推動的，還是確實有平台的影響？透過arc、VIRTUAL、BTC這三個對比組我們可以看到，前三批上市期間，整體市場處於下跌趨勢，但上市代幣仍然出現了積極的價格上漲。因此，整體而言，上線Binance Alpha對於代幣來說確實是長期利益。

Do different chains exhibit different price fluctuation patterns?

不同的鍊是否表現出不同的價格波動模式？

Organizing by chain, the data tables and bar charts are shown below. The differences among the chains are very obvious; Ethereum leads significantly in 5-minute price changes, while Base is the weakest; in terms of long-term price increases, Solana is far ahead, with the other three chains showing little difference.

依鍊式組織，資料表和長條圖如下所示。各鏈之間的差異非常明顯；以太坊在5分鐘價格變動中顯著領先，而Base最弱；長期價格漲幅來看，Solana 遙遙領先，其他三家鏈差異不大。

The data for Solana chain tokens is as follows. Overall, the 5-minute and 1-hour price changes show little difference, while the long-term price increase is far ahead, making it possibly the most suitable chain to participate in Binance Alpha.

Solana 鏈代幣的數據如下。整體來看，5分鐘和1小時價格變化差異不大，長期價格漲幅遙遙領先，可能是最適合參與Binance Alpha的鏈。

The data for Ethereum is shown below. The differences in 5-minute and 1-hour price changes are relatively larger compared to Solana. The average 5-minute price increase is 24%, and the average 1-hour price increase is 17%, but the cumulative price increase since listing is only 24%. Ethereum requires extremely high gas costs to secure a favorable position in the short term, but the overall price increase is not significant, making it currently the least valuable to participate in.

以太坊的數據如下所示。與 Solana 相比，5 分鐘和 1 小時價格變化的差異相對較大。 5分鐘平均漲幅為24%，1小時平均漲幅為17%，但上市以來累計漲幅僅24%。以太坊需要極高的 Gas 成本才能在短期內獲得有利地位，但整體價格漲幅並不大，目前參與價值最低。

The data for BNB Chain is shown in the chart below. The differences between the 5-minute and 1-hour price changes further expand, but it can be

BNB Chain的數據如下圖所示。 5分鐘和1小時價格變動的差異進一步擴大，但可以