国际货币基金组织警告国家即将举行的全球经济衰退

国际货币基金组织警告国家即将举行的全球经济衰退

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is sounding the alarm on an impending global recession, attributing US President Donald Trump's tariff strategy and geopolitical indifferences as factors that could destabilize global financial markets, according to a report released Monday.

根据周一发布的一份报告，国际货币基金组织（IMF）正在对即将举行的全球经济衰退发出警报，将美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税战略和地缘政治冷漠归因于可能破坏全球金融市场的因素。

As the world lender prepares for its spring meeting on April 21, where Trump's tariff policies are expected to dominate the agenda, it has cautioned that escalations in geopolitical risk, especially related to trade conflicts, could lead to major and lasting corrections in global asset prices.

随着世界贷方为4月21日的春季会议做准备，预计特朗普的关税政策将主导议程，因此警告说，地缘政治风险的升级，尤其是与贸易冲突有关的升级，可能会导致全球资产价格进行重大和持久的更正。

This assessment follows several weeks of volatility in global financial markets. Since Trump's January 20 inauguration for a second term, the S&P 500 index has fallen more than 10%, bond markets have experienced several swings on both sides, and gold prices have surged to record highs.

这项评估是在全球金融市场的几周波动之后进行的。自从特朗普1月20日就职第二任期以来，标准普尔500指数下降了10％以上，双方都经历了几次波动，黄金价格飙升以创造高高。

The global lender's report highlights how financial institutions are coping with market whiplash. Institutions such as banks, hedge funds, private equity firms, and pension funds face elevated risks from large, unpredictable market moves.

全球贷方的报告强调了金融机构如何应对市场鞭打。银行，对冲基金，私募股权公司和养老基金等机构面临着不可预测的市场转移的风险。

"Major geopolitical risk events can trigger large and persistent corrections in asset prices, generating market volatility that could threaten macro-financial stability," the IMF stated.

国际货币基金组织说：“重大的地缘政治风险事件可能会引发资产价格的大规模和持续的校正，从而引起市场波动，这可能威胁到宏观金融稳定。”

The Fund's assessment also includes several geopolitical threats over the past decade, discussing the US-China trade war during Trump's first term, which it reckoned would add to the recession fears, albeit slightly.

该基金的评估还包括过去十年来的几个地缘政治威胁，讨论了特朗普在第一任期期间的美中国贸易战，它认为这会增加经济衰退的恐惧，尽管稍微稍微降低了经济衰退的恐惧。

Other geopolitical elements, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were listed as examples of global market impact events. Still, the Fund reiterated that Trump's focus on trade in his second term is more aggressive than the POTUS's first tenure at the White House.

其他地缘政治因素，例如俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，被列为全球市场影响事件的例子。尽管如此，该基金重申，特朗普在第二任期内专注于贸易，比POTUS在白宫的第一个任期更具侵略性。

Data shows that the United States has raised tariffs to the highest level in a century, while China has responded in kind. The world's two largest economies are now imposing import levies exceeding 100% on each other's goods, effectively doubling the price of cross-border products.

数据表明，美国已将关税提高到一个世纪以来的最高水平，而中国已经做出了反应。现在，全球两个最大的经济体对彼此的商品施加了超过100％的进口税，有效地使跨境产品的价格翻了一番。

Such protectionist policies, the IMF warned, are increasing the difficulty for investors in accurately pricing geopolitical risks. This uncertainty could lead to what it described as "sharp market reactions," compounding the threat of volatility.

国际货币基金组织警告说，这种贸易保护主义政策正在增加投资者准确定价地缘政治风险的困难。这种不确定性可能导致它所说的“急剧反应”，从而使波动的威胁更加复杂。

In the statement, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has spoken against “Liberation Day,” adding that the president's tariff program “clearly represented significant risk” to the global economy.

在声明中，国际货币基金组织董事总经理克里斯塔利娜·乔治瓦（Kristalina Georgieva）表示反对“解放日”，并补充说总统的关税计划“明显代表了全球经济的重大风险”。

Georgieva, like most analysts who are worried about Trump tariffs, asserted that the longer-term consequences of the taxes will increase the so-called “market tail risks.” These refer to the likelihood of rare but severe portfolio losses, such as during a financial crash. And if the risks grow, she asserted, so does the possibility of a market collapse.

像大多数担心特朗普关税的分析师一样，乔治瓦（Georgieva）断言，税收的长期后果将增加所谓的“市场尾巴风险”。这些是指罕见但严重的投资组合损失的可能性，例如在金融崩溃期间。她断言，如果风险增加，市场崩溃的可能性也是如此。

“Geopolitical tensions and abrupt policy shifts heighten investor anxiety. This can contribute to feedback loops where falling asset prices further erode investor confidence, amplifying downward pressure on markets,” the director added.

董事补充说：“地缘政治紧张局势和突然的政策改变了投资者的焦虑。这可能有助于反馈循环，因为资产价格下跌进一步侵蚀了投资者的信心，从而增加了对市场的下降压力。”

She also cautioned nations about the effects of tariffs on sovereign debt markets. Sovereign risk premiums, which is the cost of credit default swaps that protect against government default, are rising.

她还警告国家关税对主权债务市场的影响。主权风险溢价正在上升，这是违反政府违约的信用违约掉期成本的上升。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.43% on Monday, after rising steeply last week, based on over-the-counter interbank quotes for the government bond's maturity. This, the Fund said, could spill into other countries through international trade and finance channels, particularly in emerging markets with higher debt burdens.

基于政府债券成熟的非处方银行报价，上周上周急剧上升后，美国10年美国国库票据的收益率为4.43％。该基金说，这可以通过国际贸易和金融渠道蔓延到其他国家，尤其是在债务负担更高的新兴市场中。

Meanwhile, a recent survey by Reuters shows that consumer confidence in America has dropped because of fears over inflation, which has climbed to its highest point since 1981. That sentiment is evident in several major global investment banks, many of which have recently flagged recession possibilities stemming from Trump's economic policies.

同时，路透社最近的一项调查显示，由于担心通货膨胀的担忧，消费者对美国的信心下降了，这种信心已攀升至1981年以来的最高点。这种观点在几家主要的全球投资银行中很明显，其中许多人最近标记了来自特朗普经济政策的经济衰退可能性。

The IMF also released an accompanying blog examining the impact of US-China tariff actions between 2018 and 2024. It found that announcements during that period consistently pushed stock markets lower in both America and the East Asian country.

国际货币基金组织还发布了一个随附的博客，研究了2018年至2024年之间美中关税行动的影响。它发现，在此期间，公告始终如一地推动了美国和东亚国家的股市较低。