國際貨幣基金組織警告國家即將舉行的全球經濟衰退

國際貨幣基金組織警告國家即將舉行的全球經濟衰退

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is sounding the alarm on an impending global recession, attributing US President Donald Trump's tariff strategy and geopolitical indifferences as factors that could destabilize global financial markets, according to a report released Monday.

根據周一發布的一份報告，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）正在對即將舉行的全球經濟衰退發出警報，將美國總統唐納德·特朗普的關稅戰略和地緣政治冷漠歸因於可能破壞全球金融市場的因素。

As the world lender prepares for its spring meeting on April 21, where Trump's tariff policies are expected to dominate the agenda, it has cautioned that escalations in geopolitical risk, especially related to trade conflicts, could lead to major and lasting corrections in global asset prices.

隨著世界貸方為4月21日的春季會議做準備，預計特朗普的關稅政策將主導議程，因此警告說，地緣政治風險的升級，尤其是與貿易衝突有關的升級，可能會導致全球資產價格進行重大和持久的更正。

This assessment follows several weeks of volatility in global financial markets. Since Trump's January 20 inauguration for a second term, the S&P 500 index has fallen more than 10%, bond markets have experienced several swings on both sides, and gold prices have surged to record highs.

這項評估是在全球金融市場的幾週波動之後進行的。自從特朗普1月20日就職第二任期以來，標準普爾500指數下降了10％以上，雙方都經歷了幾次波動，黃金價格飆升以創造高高。

The global lender's report highlights how financial institutions are coping with market whiplash. Institutions such as banks, hedge funds, private equity firms, and pension funds face elevated risks from large, unpredictable market moves.

全球貸方的報告強調了金融機構如何應對市場鞭打。銀行，對沖基金，私募股權公司和養老基金等機構面臨著不可預測的市場轉移的風險。

"Major geopolitical risk events can trigger large and persistent corrections in asset prices, generating market volatility that could threaten macro-financial stability," the IMF stated.

國際貨幣基金組織說：“重大的地緣政治風險事件可能會引發資產價格的大規模和持續的校正，從而引起市場波動，這可能威脅到宏觀金融穩定。”

The Fund's assessment also includes several geopolitical threats over the past decade, discussing the US-China trade war during Trump's first term, which it reckoned would add to the recession fears, albeit slightly.

該基金的評估還包括過去十年來的幾個地緣政治威脅，討論了特朗普在第一任期期間的美中國貿易戰，它認為這會增加經濟衰退的恐懼，儘管稍微稍微降低了經濟衰退的恐懼。

Other geopolitical elements, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were listed as examples of global market impact events. Still, the Fund reiterated that Trump's focus on trade in his second term is more aggressive than the POTUS's first tenure at the White House.

其他地緣政治因素，例如俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵，被列為全球市場影響事件的例子。儘管如此，該基金重申，特朗普在第二任期內專注於貿易，比POTUS在白宮的第一個任期更具侵略性。

Data shows that the United States has raised tariffs to the highest level in a century, while China has responded in kind. The world's two largest economies are now imposing import levies exceeding 100% on each other's goods, effectively doubling the price of cross-border products.

數據表明，美國已將關稅提高到一個世紀以來的最高水平，而中國已經做出了反應。現在，全球兩個最大的經濟體對彼此的商品施加了超過100％的進口稅，有效地使跨境產品的價格翻了一番。

Such protectionist policies, the IMF warned, are increasing the difficulty for investors in accurately pricing geopolitical risks. This uncertainty could lead to what it described as "sharp market reactions," compounding the threat of volatility.

國際貨幣基金組織警告說，這種貿易保護主義政策正在增加投資者準確定價地緣政治風險的困難。這種不確定性可能導致它所說的“急劇反應”，從而使波動的威脅更加複雜。

In the statement, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has spoken against “Liberation Day,” adding that the president's tariff program “clearly represented significant risk” to the global economy.

在聲明中，國際貨幣基金組織董事總經理克里斯塔利娜·喬治瓦（Kristalina Georgieva）表示反對“解放日”，並補充說總統的關稅計劃“明顯代表了全球經濟的重大風險”。

Georgieva, like most analysts who are worried about Trump tariffs, asserted that the longer-term consequences of the taxes will increase the so-called “market tail risks.” These refer to the likelihood of rare but severe portfolio losses, such as during a financial crash. And if the risks grow, she asserted, so does the possibility of a market collapse.

像大多數擔心特朗普關稅的分析師一樣，喬治瓦（Georgieva）斷言，稅收的長期後果將增加所謂的“市場尾巴風險”。這些是指罕見但嚴重的投資組合損失的可能性，例如在金融崩潰期間。她斷言，如果風險增加，市場崩潰的可能性也是如此。

“Geopolitical tensions and abrupt policy shifts heighten investor anxiety. This can contribute to feedback loops where falling asset prices further erode investor confidence, amplifying downward pressure on markets,” the director added.

董事補充說：“地緣政治緊張局勢和突然的政策改變了投資者的焦慮。這可能有助於反饋循環，因為資產價格下跌進一步侵蝕了投資者的信心，從而增加了對市場的下降壓力。”

She also cautioned nations about the effects of tariffs on sovereign debt markets. Sovereign risk premiums, which is the cost of credit default swaps that protect against government default, are rising.

她還警告國家關稅對主權債務市場的影響。主權風險溢價正在上升，這是違反政府違約的信用違約掉期成本的上升。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.43% on Monday, after rising steeply last week, based on over-the-counter interbank quotes for the government bond's maturity. This, the Fund said, could spill into other countries through international trade and finance channels, particularly in emerging markets with higher debt burdens.

基於政府債券成熟的非處方銀行報價，上週上週急劇上升後，美國10年美國國庫票據的收益率為4.43％。該基金說，這可以通過國際貿易和金融渠道蔓延到其他國家，尤其是在債務負擔更高的新興市場中。

Meanwhile, a recent survey by Reuters shows that consumer confidence in America has dropped because of fears over inflation, which has climbed to its highest point since 1981. That sentiment is evident in several major global investment banks, many of which have recently flagged recession possibilities stemming from Trump's economic policies.

同時，路透社最近的一項調查顯示，由於擔心通貨膨脹的擔憂，消費者對美國的信心下降了，這種信心已攀升至1981年以來的最高點。這種觀點在幾家主要的全球投資銀行中很明顯，其中許多人最近標記了來自特朗普經濟政策的經濟衰退可能性。

The IMF also released an accompanying blog examining the impact of US-China tariff actions between 2018 and 2024. It found that announcements during that period consistently pushed stock markets lower in both America and the East Asian country.

國際貨幣基金組織還發布了一個隨附的博客，研究了2018年至2024年之間美中關稅行動的影響。它發現，在此期間，公告始終如一地推動了美國和東亞國家的股市較低。