机构洞察：ETH 现货 ETF 热情持续升温

我们的每周机构洞察探讨最新的市场动态，包括市场表现、行业新闻、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 资金流向

Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments, including market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks, aiming to supercharge your crypto trading.

我们每周的机构洞察探讨最新的市场发展，包括市场表现、行业新闻、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 流量、趋势主题、即将发生的事件和代币解锁，旨在增强您的加密货币交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我们每周对市场的看法！

Macro Overview — Data Bolsters Fed’s Confidence

宏观概览——数据增强美联储信心

For over two years, inflation has been the Federal Reserve's primary concern. However, this is poised to change as central bankers prepare to cut interest rates in September. Officials have expressed growing confidence that price stability is within sight, while risks to the labor market have increased.

两年多来，通胀一直是美联储最关心的问题。然而，随着央行行长准备在 9 月份降息，这种情况可能会发生变化。官员们对价格稳定指日可待的信心不断增强，而劳动力市场的风险却在增加。

Recent data has bolstered the Fed's confidence in the inflation trajectory, with the preferred gauge easing to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the once-overheated labor market has cooled, with a decline in job openings and a gradual rise in unemployment. This "sweet spot" has policymakers determined to avoid letting the labor market falter substantially.

近期数据增强了美联储对通胀轨迹的信心，首选指标降至 2.6%。与此同时，一度过热的劳动力市场已经降温，职位空缺减少，失业率逐渐上升。这个“最佳点”让政策制定者决心避免让劳动力市场大幅下滑。

While officials haven’t specified the exact timing, their comments have been interpreted as signaling a September rate cut. This shift reflects their desire to stick a "soft landing" for the economy, which is showing signs of cooling consumer spending and slowing growth. Policymakers emphasize they need more data before committing, but the momentum appears to be building toward a September rate reduction.

虽然官员们没有具体说明具体时间，但他们的言论被解读为暗示 9 月份降息。这一转变反映出他们希望经济实现“软着陆”，目前经济显示出消费支出降温和增长放缓的迹象。政策制定者强调，他们在做出承诺之前需要更多数据，但 9 月份降息的势头似乎正在增强。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — Excitement Around ETH ETFs Continues to Build

每周加密亮点——围绕 ETH ETF 的兴奋持续升温

As suggested by SEC Chair Gary Gensler, ETH Spot ETFs are expected to be approved in summer 2024. The market gained more visibility of this approval on Jul 16, 2024, as the SEC reportedly had no further comments on the applications of some ETH Spot ETF proposals. Meanwhile, it’s anticipated that Bitcoin Spot ETFs will start trading as early as next Tuesday, Jul 23, 2024.

根据 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 的建议，ETH 现货 ETF 预计将于 2024 年夏季获得批准。据报道 SEC 对某些 ETH 现货 ETF 的申请没有进一步评论，市场在 2024 年 7 月 16 日获得了更多关于这一批准的知名度提案。与此同时，预计比特币现货 ETF 最早将于 2024 年 7 月 23 日下周二开始交易。

There are fewer applicants for ETH Spot ETFs than the 11 applicants there were for Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Hashdex, Valkyrie and WisdomTree® haven’t proceeded to launch their ETH Spot ETFs, which may suggest fierce price competition among the issuers to gain market share. This also indicates that the issuers foresee relatively less demand for ETH Spot ETFs as compared to Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

ETH 现货 ETF 的申请人数量少于比特币现货 ETF 的 11 名申请人。 Hashdex、Valkyrie 和 WisdomTree® 尚未推出其 ETH 现货 ETF，这可能表明发行人之间为争夺市场份额而展开激烈的价格竞争。这也表明发行人预计与比特币现货 ETF 相比，ETH 现货 ETF 的需求相对较少。

How much capital will flow into ETH Spot ETFs?

有多少资金将流入 ETH 现货 ETF？

AUM

资产管理规模

Bitcoin Spot ETFs (U.S.)

比特币现货 ETF（美国）

$57.8 billion

578 亿美元

ETH Spot ETFs (U.S.)

ETH 现货 ETF（美国）

$8–20 billion

8-200 亿美元

Bitcoin Spot ETFs (HK)

比特币现货ETF（香港）

HK$2,450 million

24.5亿港元

ETH Spot ETFs (HK)

ETH现货ETF（香港）

HK$350 million

3.5亿港元

Source: Bybit (data as of Jul 16, 2024)

资料来源：Bybit（数据截至2024年7月16日）

In our estimate, we expect the total assets under management (AUM) of ETH Spot ETFs in the U.S. market to be between $8 billion and $20 billion. In the optimistic scenario, we expect a cap of $20 billion in inflows to these ETFs, assuming that the inflows to ETH ETFs don’t have a significant cannibalization effect on the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and that all the new money is directed toward these investments.

根据我们的估计，我们预计美国市场 ETH 现货 ETF 的管理总资产（AUM）将在 80 亿美元至 200 亿美元之间。在乐观的情况下，我们预计这些 ETF 的流入上限为 200 亿美元，假设流入 ETH ETF 不会对比特币现货 ETF 产生重大蚕食效应，并且所有新资金都将流向这些投资。

This estimate takes into account the typical asset allocation patterns of crypto investors, as outlined in Bybit's asset allocation report. In our view, investors will likely choose to invest in either Bitcoin or Ethereum, rather than diversifying their exposure across multiple cryptocurrencies. As the report suggests, investors intend to focus their investments on the largest blue-chip crypto assets.

这一估计考虑了加密货币投资者的典型资产配置模式，如 Bybit 资产配置报告中所述。我们认为，投资者可能会选择投资比特币或以太坊，而不是分散投资多种加密货币。正如报告所示，投资者打算将投资重点放在最大的蓝筹加密资产上。

$20 billion (as % of total)

200 亿美元（占总额的百分比）

Market cap

市值

$415 billion

4150亿美元

~5%

〜5%

Exchange reserves

外汇储备

$57.4 billion

574 亿美元

~35%

〜35%

Non-staked ETH

非质押 ETH

$302 billion

3020亿美元

~6.6%

〜6.6%

Source: Bybit (data as of Jul 16, 2024)

资料来源：Bybit（数据截至2024年7月16日）

The $20 billion inflows are estimated to take up 5% of Ether’s market capitalization. What is striking is that $20 billion could take up 35% of the total exchange balance, which would likely lead to a liquidity crunch.

预计 200 亿美元的资金流入将占以太坊市值的 5%。令人震惊的是，200亿美元可能占外汇余额总额的35%，这可能会导致流动性紧缩。

Ether Exchange Reserves. Source: CryptoQuant (data as of Jun 16, 2024)

以太币交易所储备。资料来源：CryptoQuant（数据截至 2024 年 6 月 16 日）

Additionally, data from CryptoQuant suggests that cryptocurrency exchange reserves have been declining. This is likely due to the tendency for exchange outflows driven by the staking rewards that decentralized liquid staking protocols offer. As a result, the liquidity squeeze is expected to further intensify.

此外，CryptoQuant 的数据表明，加密货币交易储备一直在下降。这可能是由于去中心化流动质押协议提供的质押奖励驱动了交易所流出的趋势。因此，流动性紧缩预计将进一步加剧。

This poses a potential challenge for ETH Spot ETFs, as they rely on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges — particularly Coinbase — to facilitate their subscription and redemption activities. The decreasing liquidity in these exchanges could make it more difficult for these ETFs to efficiently manage their operations and maintain their tracking of the underlying Ether spot price.

这对 ETH 现货 ETF 构成了潜在的挑战，因为它们依赖集中式加密货币交易所（尤其是 Coinbase）来促进其认购和赎回活动。这些交易所的流动性下降可能会使这些 ETF 更难以有效管理其运营并保持对基础以太坊现货价格的跟踪。

Will Ether Spot ETFs affect the approval of Solana Spot ETFs?

以太币现货 ETF 是否会影响 Solana 现货 ETF 的批准？

Currently, only VanEck and 21Shares have filed for Solana Spot ETFs in the U.S. market. However, influential financial institutions like Blackrock'

目前，只有 VanEck 和 21Shares 在美国市场申请了 Solana 现货 ETF。然而，像贝莱德这样有影响力的金融机构