機構洞察：ETH 現貨 ETF 熱情持續升溫

我們的每週機構洞察探討最新的市場動態，包括市場表現、產業新聞、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 資金流向

Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments, including market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks, aiming to supercharge your crypto trading.

我們每週的機構洞察探討最新的市場發展，包括市場表現、行業新聞、交易所交易基金 (ETF) 流量、趨勢主題、即將發生的事件和代幣解鎖，旨在增強您的加密貨幣交易。

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

享受我們每週對市場的看法！

Macro Overview — Data Bolsters Fed’s Confidence

宏觀概覽－資料增強聯準會信心

For over two years, inflation has been the Federal Reserve's primary concern. However, this is poised to change as central bankers prepare to cut interest rates in September. Officials have expressed growing confidence that price stability is within sight, while risks to the labor market have increased.

兩年多來，通膨一直是聯準會最關心的問題。然而，隨著央行行長準備在 9 月降息，這種情況可能會改變。官員們對價格穩定指日可待的信心不斷增強，而勞動市場的風險卻在增加。

Recent data has bolstered the Fed's confidence in the inflation trajectory, with the preferred gauge easing to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the once-overheated labor market has cooled, with a decline in job openings and a gradual rise in unemployment. This "sweet spot" has policymakers determined to avoid letting the labor market falter substantially.

近期數據增強了聯準會對通膨軌蹟的信心，首選指標降至 2.6%。同時，一度過熱的勞動市場已經降溫，職缺減少，失業率逐漸上升。這個「最佳點」讓政策制定者決心避免讓勞動市場大幅下滑。

While officials haven’t specified the exact timing, their comments have been interpreted as signaling a September rate cut. This shift reflects their desire to stick a "soft landing" for the economy, which is showing signs of cooling consumer spending and slowing growth. Policymakers emphasize they need more data before committing, but the momentum appears to be building toward a September rate reduction.

雖然官員們沒有具體說明具體時間，但他們的言論被解讀為暗示 9 月降息。這一轉變反映出他們希望經濟實現“軟著陸”，目前經濟顯示出消費支出降溫和成長放緩的跡象。政策制定者強調，他們在做出承諾之前需要更多數據，但 9 月降息的勢頭似乎正在增強。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — Excitement Around ETH ETFs Continues to Build

每週加密亮點——圍繞 ETH ETF 的興奮持續升溫

As suggested by SEC Chair Gary Gensler, ETH Spot ETFs are expected to be approved in summer 2024. The market gained more visibility of this approval on Jul 16, 2024, as the SEC reportedly had no further comments on the applications of some ETH Spot ETF proposals. Meanwhile, it’s anticipated that Bitcoin Spot ETFs will start trading as early as next Tuesday, Jul 23, 2024.

根據SEC 主席Gary Gensler 的建議，ETH 現貨ETF 預計於2024 年夏季獲得批准。批准的知名度提案。同時，預計比特幣現貨 ETF 最快將於 2024 年 7 月 23 日下週二開始交易。

There are fewer applicants for ETH Spot ETFs than the 11 applicants there were for Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Hashdex, Valkyrie and WisdomTree® haven’t proceeded to launch their ETH Spot ETFs, which may suggest fierce price competition among the issuers to gain market share. This also indicates that the issuers foresee relatively less demand for ETH Spot ETFs as compared to Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

ETH 現貨 ETF 的申請人數少於比特幣現貨 ETF 的 11 名申請人。 Hashdex、Valkyrie 和 WisdomTree® 尚未推出其 ETH 現貨 ETF，這可能表明發行人之間為爭奪市場份額而展開激烈的價格競爭。這也顯示發行人預期與比特幣現貨 ETF 相比，ETH 現貨 ETF 的需求相對較少。

How much capital will flow into ETH Spot ETFs?

有多少資金將流入 ETH 現貨 ETF？

AUM

資產管理規模

Bitcoin Spot ETFs (U.S.)

比特幣現貨 ETF（美國）

$57.8 billion

578 億美元

ETH Spot ETFs (U.S.)

ETH 現貨 ETF（美國）

$8–20 billion

8-200 億美元

Bitcoin Spot ETFs (HK)

比特幣現貨ETF（香港）

HK$2,450 million

24.5億港元

ETH Spot ETFs (HK)

ETH現貨ETF（香港）

HK$350 million

3.5億港元

Source: Bybit (data as of Jul 16, 2024)

資料來源：Bybit（數據截至2024年7月16日）

In our estimate, we expect the total assets under management (AUM) of ETH Spot ETFs in the U.S. market to be between $8 billion and $20 billion. In the optimistic scenario, we expect a cap of $20 billion in inflows to these ETFs, assuming that the inflows to ETH ETFs don’t have a significant cannibalization effect on the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and that all the new money is directed toward these investments.

根據我們的估計，我們預計美國市場 ETH 現貨 ETF 的管理總資產（AUM）將在 80 億美元至 200 億美元之間。在樂觀的情況下，我們預計這些 ETF 的流入上限為 200 億美元，假設流入 ETH ETF 不會對比特幣現貨 ETF 產生重大蠶食效應，並且所有新資金都將流向這些投資。

This estimate takes into account the typical asset allocation patterns of crypto investors, as outlined in Bybit's asset allocation report. In our view, investors will likely choose to invest in either Bitcoin or Ethereum, rather than diversifying their exposure across multiple cryptocurrencies. As the report suggests, investors intend to focus their investments on the largest blue-chip crypto assets.

這項估計考慮了加密貨幣投資者的典型資產配置模式，如 Bybit 資產配置報告中所述。我們認為，投資者可能會選擇投資比特幣或以太坊，而不是分散投資多種加密貨幣。如報告所示，投資人打算將投資重點放在最大的藍籌加密資產。

$20 billion (as % of total)

200 億美元（佔總數的百分比）

Market cap

市值

$415 billion

4150億美元

~5%

〜5%

Exchange reserves

外匯存底

$57.4 billion

574 億美元

~35%

〜35%

Non-staked ETH

非質押 ETH

$302 billion

3020億美元

~6.6%

〜6.6%

Source: Bybit (data as of Jul 16, 2024)

資料來源：Bybit（數據截至2024年7月16日）

The $20 billion inflows are estimated to take up 5% of Ether’s market capitalization. What is striking is that $20 billion could take up 35% of the total exchange balance, which would likely lead to a liquidity crunch.

預計 200 億美元的資金流入將佔以太坊市值的 5%。令人震驚的是，200億美元可能佔外匯餘額總額的35%，這可能會導致流動性緊縮。

Ether Exchange Reserves. Source: CryptoQuant (data as of Jun 16, 2024)

以太幣交易所儲備。資料來源：CryptoQuant（數據截至 2024 年 6 月 16 日）

Additionally, data from CryptoQuant suggests that cryptocurrency exchange reserves have been declining. This is likely due to the tendency for exchange outflows driven by the staking rewards that decentralized liquid staking protocols offer. As a result, the liquidity squeeze is expected to further intensify.

此外，CryptoQuant 的數據表明，加密貨幣交易儲備一直在下降。這可能是由於去中心化流動質押協議提供的質押獎勵驅動了交易所流出的趨勢。因此，流動性緊縮預計將進一步加劇。

This poses a potential challenge for ETH Spot ETFs, as they rely on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges — particularly Coinbase — to facilitate their subscription and redemption activities. The decreasing liquidity in these exchanges could make it more difficult for these ETFs to efficiently manage their operations and maintain their tracking of the underlying Ether spot price.

這對 ETH 現貨 ETF 構成了潛在的挑戰，因為它們依賴集中式加密貨幣交易所（尤其是 Coinbase）來促進其認購和贖回活動。這些交易所的流動性下降可能會使這些 ETF 更難以有效管理其營運並保持對基礎以太坊現貨價格的追蹤。

Will Ether Spot ETFs affect the approval of Solana Spot ETFs?

以太幣現貨 ETF 是否會影響 Solana 現貨 ETF 的批准？

Currently, only VanEck and 21Shares have filed for Solana Spot ETFs in the U.S. market. However, influential financial institutions like Blackrock'

目前，只有 VanEck 和 21Shares 在美國市場申請了 Solana 現貨 ETF。然而，像貝萊德這樣有影響力的金融機構