美国通胀高企，降息押注降温

周二公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据略超预期，核心通胀上升0.4%。不过，投资者对六月降息仍持乐观态度，因为该数据并未显着改变市场预期。尽管通胀数据高于预期，美国股市仍上涨，表明投资者并未受到该报告的影响。

US Inflation Remains Elevated, Dampening Rate-Cut Expectations

美国通胀持续高企，削弱降息预期

Tuesday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that inflation levels surpassed initial forecasts, casting some doubt on market expectations for an imminent interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve.

周二公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）显示，通胀水平超出了最初的预测，使市场对美联储即将降息的预期产生了一些疑问。

Headline inflation for February registered a 0.4% increase, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.3%. This brought the annual inflation rate to 3.2%, matching expectations for the monthly figure but slightly higher than the anticipated 3.1% for the annual reading.

2 月份总体通胀率增长 0.4%，超过市场普遍预期的 0.3%。这使得年度通胀率达到 3.2%，与月度数据预期相符，但略高于年度通胀率 3.1% 的预期。

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also exceeded predictions, rising by 0.4% compared to the estimated 0.3% gain. This indicates that underlying inflationary pressures remain elevated.

排除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀也超出了预期，上涨了 0.4%，而预期为 0.3%。这表明潜在的通胀压力仍然较高。

Despite the higher-than-expected inflation data, markets continue to price in a rate cut by the Fed in June. However, analysts remain cautious, noting that central bank officials have emphasized the need for further evidence of inflation moderation before considering a rate adjustment.

尽管通胀数据高于预期，市场仍消化美联储 6 月降息的影响。不过，分析师仍保持谨慎态度，指出央行官员强调在考虑利率调整之前需要进一步证明通胀放缓的证据。

"With inflation coming in slightly hotter than expected, we believe it's a toss-up whether the Fed cuts interest rates in June or opts for a more conservative approach and waits until September," said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital.

Regan Capital 首席投资官 Skyler Weinand 表示：“由于通胀略高于预期，我们认为美联储是在 6 月降息，还是选择更保守的做法并等到 9 月降息，这是一个难以抉择的问题。”

Weinand added that while inflation has rapidly decelerated from its peak of 9% to 3%, reaching the Fed's 2% target may take longer than anticipated.

韦南德补充说，虽然通胀已从9%的峰值迅速降至3%，但达到美联储2%的目标可能需要比预期更长的时间。

Investors will closely monitor the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release later this week for further insights into inflationary trends.

投资者将密切关注定于本周晚些时候发布的生产者价格指数（PPI），以进一步了解通胀趋势。

Market Movement

市场走势

US equity markets rebounded on Tuesday, following a pullback in the previous session, as investors largely shrugged off the inflation data. The S&P 500 gained 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.43%.

美国股市继前一交易日回调后，周二反弹，因投资者基本上不理会通胀数据。标准普尔 500 指数上涨 0.46%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 0.24%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 0.43%。

Other Notable Developments

其他值得注意的发展

• Barclays analysts believe that the recent rally in bond prices has become excessive, signaling an opportune time for investors to sell Treasury bonds.
• The cryptocurrency market remains buoyant, with the top 10 cryptocurrencies accounting for nearly $3 trillion in market capitalization.
• The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the country's historic crude production levels are unlikely to be surpassed in the near future.
• Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller argues that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates for stocks to continue their upward trajectory.

Commodities, Bonds, and Crypto

巴克莱分析师认为，近期债券价格涨势已经过度，预示着投资者抛售国债的时机到来。加密货币市场依然活跃，排名前十的加密货币市值接近3万亿美元。美国能源信息署美国能源信息署 (EIA) 估计，该国历史上的原油产量水平在不久的将来不太可能被超越。亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒 (Stanley Druckenmiller) 认为，美联储不需要通过降息来让股市继续上涨。商品、债券和加密货币

• Oil prices remained largely unchanged, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at $77.91 per barrel and Brent crude, the international benchmark, at $82.21 per barrel.
• Gold lost 0.23% to $2,171.15 per ounce.
• The 10-year Treasury yield edged up by three basis points to 4.145%.
• Bitcoin gained 0.5% to $72,087.

油价基本保持不变，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）交投于每桶77.91美元，国际基准布伦特原油交投于每桶82.21美元。黄金下跌0.23%至每盎司2171.15美元。10年期国债收益率小幅上涨三个基点至 4.145%。比特币上涨 0.5% 至 72,087 美元。