美國通膨高企，降息押注降溫

週二公佈的消費者物價指數（CPI）數據略超預期，核心通膨上升0.4%。不過，投資人對六月降息仍持樂觀態度，因為該數據並未顯著改變市場預期。儘管通膨數據高於預期，美國股市仍上漲，顯示投資人並未受到該報告的影響。

US Inflation Remains Elevated, Dampening Rate-Cut Expectations

美國通膨持續高企，削弱降息預期

Tuesday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that inflation levels surpassed initial forecasts, casting some doubt on market expectations for an imminent interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve.

週二公佈的消費者物價指數（CPI）顯示，通膨水準超出了最初的預測，使市場對聯準會即將降息的預期產生了一些疑問。

Headline inflation for February registered a 0.4% increase, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.3%. This brought the annual inflation rate to 3.2%, matching expectations for the monthly figure but slightly higher than the anticipated 3.1% for the annual reading.

2 月整體通膨率成長 0.4%，超過市場普遍預期的 0.3%。這使得年度通膨率達到 3.2%，與月度數據預期相符，但略高於年度通膨率 3.1% 的預期。

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also exceeded predictions, rising by 0.4% compared to the estimated 0.3% gain. This indicates that underlying inflationary pressures remain elevated.

排除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心通膨也超出了預期，上漲了 0.4%，而預期為 0.3%。這表明潛在的通膨壓力仍然較高。

Despite the higher-than-expected inflation data, markets continue to price in a rate cut by the Fed in June. However, analysts remain cautious, noting that central bank officials have emphasized the need for further evidence of inflation moderation before considering a rate adjustment.

儘管通膨數據高於預期，市場仍消化聯準會 6 月降息的影響。不過，分析師仍保持謹慎態度，指出央行官員強調在考慮利率調整前需要進一步證明通膨放緩的證據。

"With inflation coming in slightly hotter than expected, we believe it's a toss-up whether the Fed cuts interest rates in June or opts for a more conservative approach and waits until September," said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital.

Regan Capital 首席投資長 Skyler Weinand 表示：“由於通膨略高於預期，我們認為聯準會是在 6 月降息，還是選擇更保守的做法並等到 9 月降息，這是一個難以抉擇的問題。”

Weinand added that while inflation has rapidly decelerated from its peak of 9% to 3%, reaching the Fed's 2% target may take longer than anticipated.

韋南德補充說，雖然通膨已從9%的峰值迅速降至3%，但達到聯準會2%的目標可能需要比預期更長的時間。

Investors will closely monitor the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release later this week for further insights into inflationary trends.

投資者將密切關注定於本週稍後發布的生產者物價指數（PPI），以進一步了解通膨趨勢。

Market Movement

市場走勢

US equity markets rebounded on Tuesday, following a pullback in the previous session, as investors largely shrugged off the inflation data. The S&P 500 gained 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.43%.

美國股市繼前一交易日回檔後，週二反彈，因為投資人基本上不理會通膨數據。標準普爾 500 指數上漲 0.46%，道瓊工業指數上漲 0.24%，那斯達克指數上漲 0.43%。

Other Notable Developments

其他值得注意的發展

• Barclays analysts believe that the recent rally in bond prices has become excessive, signaling an opportune time for investors to sell Treasury bonds.
• The cryptocurrency market remains buoyant, with the top 10 cryptocurrencies accounting for nearly $3 trillion in market capitalization.
• The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the country's historic crude production levels are unlikely to be surpassed in the near future.
• Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller argues that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates for stocks to continue their upward trajectory.

Commodities, Bonds, and Crypto

巴克萊分析師認為，近期債券價格漲勢已經過度，預示著投資者拋售國債的時機到來。加密貨幣市場依然活躍，排名前十的加密貨幣市值接近3萬億美元。美國能源資訊署美國能源資訊署(EIA) 估計，該國歷史上的原油產量水平在不久的將來不太可能被超越。億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller) 認為，美聯儲不需要通過降息來讓股市持續上漲。商品、債券和加密貨幣

• Oil prices remained largely unchanged, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at $77.91 per barrel and Brent crude, the international benchmark, at $82.21 per barrel.
• Gold lost 0.23% to $2,171.15 per ounce.
• The 10-year Treasury yield edged up by three basis points to 4.145%.
• Bitcoin gained 0.5% to $72,087.

油價基本維持不變，西德州中質原油（WTI）交投於每桶77.91美元，國際基準布蘭特原油交投於每桶82.21美元。黃金下跌0.23%至每盎司2171.15美元。10年期公債殖利率小幅上漲三個基點至 4.145%。比特幣上漲 0.5% 至 72,087 美元。