灰度效应：灰度精心挑选的加密货币在投资回报方面表现如何？

近段时间，随着SUI、ZEN等币价的飙升，“灰度效应”再度出现，灰度持有量成为市场投资指标之一。

Grayscale's holdings have become one of the market investment indicators. But how do Grayscale's carefully selected crypto tokens perform in terms of return on investment?

灰度的持股已成为市场投资指标之一。但灰度精心挑选的加密代币在投资回报方面表现如何？

PANews reviewed the market performance of the 14 tokens involved in the crypto trust fund launched by Grayscale during the last bull market cycle, from March 2021 to March 2022.

PANews 回顾了 Grayscale 推出的加密货币信托基金涉及的 14 种代币在上一个牛市周期（2021 年 3 月至 2022 年 3 月）的市场表现。

The average rate of return exceeds 200%, and the market cycle has a significant impact

平均收益率超过200%，市场周期影响显着

During the last bull market, Grayscale launched 14 cryptocurrency trust products through the over-the-counter market, DeFi fund DEFG and GSCPxE fund. These products were launched one after another in about a year. Judging from the time of product launch, Grayscale began to launch related token funds in the early stage of the bull market, and began to accelerate the layout frequency in the middle and late stages.

上一次牛市期间，灰度通过场外市场推出了14种加密货币信托产品、DeFi基金DEFG和GSCPxE基金。这些产品在一年左右的时间里陆续推出。从产品推出的时间来看，灰度在牛市初期就开始推出相关代币基金，并在中后期开始加快布局频率。

From the perspective of the length of time required for investment to generate returns, the average period for the 14 tokens to reach a new high is 84.4 days, among which BAT, MANA and LPT require a longer period, basically exceeding 250 days, but the rate of return is also relatively high; while SOL, FIL, AVAX and DOT reached new highs in a shorter period of time, but their gains were relatively limited, and this period was in the market adjustment period after Bitcoin reached a new high. In addition to indicating that under normal circumstances, the longer the investment period during the bull market, the more advantageous the holding rate of return, this phenomenon is also related to the time of product launch. In the past, the rising cycle of the sector showed that most public chains were the first wave of rising targets in the bull market. Most of these projects launched by Grayscale achieved good gains in the early stage, resulting in limited room for later growth.

从投资产生回报所需的时间长短来看，14种代币创出新高的平均周期为84.4天，其中BAT、MANA和LPT需要的周期较长，基本超过250天，但回报率也比较高；而SOL、FIL、AVAX、DOT则在较短的时间内创出新高，但涨幅相对有限，且这一时期正处于比特币创出新高后的市场调整期。除了说明一般情况下，牛市时投资期限越长，持有收益率越有优势，这种现象还与产品上市时间有关。过去行业的上涨周期表明，大多数公链都是牛市中的第一波上涨标的。灰度推出的这些项目大多前期取得了不错的收益，导致后期增长空间有限。

However, this difference is also affected to some extent by changes in the market cycle. Specifically, the average increase of the token funds launched by Grayscale in the early bull market in the first half of 2021 was 446.8%; in the middle of the bull market from April to November 2021, the increase dropped to 85.4%; by March 2022, when the crypto market was in a correction period, the increase of the tokens launched was only 40.3%. It can be seen that Grayscale's return on investment is greatly affected by market cycle fluctuations and shows obvious cyclical characteristics.

但这种差异也在一定程度上受到市场周期变化的影响。具体来看，灰度推出的代币基金在2021年上半年牛市初期的平均涨幅为446.8%； 2021年4月至11月牛市中期，涨幅回落至85.4%；到2022年3月，当加密市场处于调整期时，发行的代币涨幅仅为40.3%。可见，灰度的投资回报率受市场周期波动影响较大，呈现出明显的周期性特征。

From this point of view, although Grayscale's cryptocurrency trust products provided considerable returns during the bull market, their performance was significantly affected by market fluctuations. Therefore, investors should fully consider the overall market trend when making investment decisions.

由此来看，灰度的加密货币信托产品虽然在牛市期间提供了可观的回报，但其业绩受到市场波动的影响较大。因此，投资者在做出投资决策时应充分考虑市场整体走势。

Participate in multiple explosive token layouts to expand the scope of investment products

参与多个爆款代币布局，扩大投资产品范围

Recently, the prices of multiple tokens have performed strongly, and Grayscale’s layout may play an important role in driving market trends.

近期多个代币价格表现强劲，灰度的布局或将对市场走势起到重要推动作用。

For example, XRP, whose price broke through a multi-year high some time ago. In September this year, Grayscale announced that it would re-launch the first US XRP Trust Fund and officially open it to qualified investors in the near future. You should know that as early as January 2021, Grayscale withdrew from the XRP Trust and liquidated its tokens due to Ripple's legal dispute. This shift was also interpreted by the outside world as paving the way for a potential XRP spot ETF, and the price of XRP continued to rise in the following months, which may indicate the market's positive response to Grayscale's move.

比如XRP，前段时间其价格突破了多年高点。今年9月，灰度宣布将重新推出首支美国XRP信托基金，并于近期正式向合格投资者开放。要知道，早在 2021 年 1 月，Grayscale 就因 Ripple 的法律纠纷退出了 XRP 信托并清算了其代币。这一转变也被外界解读为潜在的XRP现货ETF铺平了道路，而XRP的价格在接下来的几个月中持续上涨，这可能表明市场对灰度此举的积极反应。

The price of SUI has also performed very strongly in the past few months. A few months ago, Grayscale updated its investment strategy and announced the top 20 tokens that are expected to rise sharply by the end of 2024, including the addition of 6 new tokens such as SUI and TAO. At the same time, Grayscale also started the investment layout of SUI, announcing in August this year that it will launch GrayscaleSuiTrust, which will be officially opened to qualified investors in the A few months ago, Grayscale updated its investment strategy and announced the top 20 tokens that are expected to rise sharply by the end of 2024, including the addition of 6 new tokens such as SUI and TAO. At the same time, Grayscale also started the investment layout of SUI, announcing in August this year that it will launch GrayscaleSuiTrust, which will be officially opened to qualified investors in the near future.

SUI的价格在过去几个月也表现非常强劲。几个月前，灰度更新了投资策略，公布了预计2024年底大幅上涨的前20个代币，其中新增了SUI、TAO等6个新代币。与此同时，灰度也开始了SUI的投资布局，今年8月宣布将推出GrayscaleSuiTrust，将于2019年正式向合格投资者开放。几个月前，灰度更新了投资策略，公布了前20强。预计到 2024 年底将大幅上涨的代币，其中包括 SUI、TAO 等 6 个新代币的增加。与此同时，灰度也开始了SUI的投资布局，今年8月宣布将推出GrayscaleSuiTrust，并将于近期正式向合格投资者开放。

Another token worth noting is ZEN, which has also seen a gratifying rise in price recently, with a 30-day increase of about 215%. After recently increasing its holdings of ZEN tokens, Grayscale also announced that it had submitted Grayscale Horizen Trust (ZEN) 8-K form to the SEC, allowing investors to gain exposure

另一个值得注意的代币是ZEN，近期其价格也出现了可喜的上涨，30天涨幅约为215%。在最近增持 ZEN 代币后，灰度还宣布已向 SEC 提交灰度 Horizen Trust (ZEN) 8-K 表格，允许投资者获得风险敞口