瞬息万变的是不到来 - 它是：比特币作为价值的终极存储而出现

多年来，房地产一直是建立财富的最可靠方法之一。房屋价值通常会随着时间的推移而上升，财产所有权已经很长

Rising mortgage rates and a slowing real estate market are driving investors toward alternative stores of value, such as Bitcoin (BTC). Here's how the two assets compare and how they're impacting each other.

抵押贷款利率上升和房地产市场放缓正在推动投资者朝着替代价值商店（例如比特币（BTC））迈进。这是两个资产比较以及它们如何相互影响的方式。

Key Takeaways

关键要点

The housing market is slowing as a result of high mortgage rates and an increase in home inventory. This is making it more difficult to sell homes quickly and at a profit.

由于高抵押贷款利率和房屋库存增加，住房市场正在放缓。这使得很难快速出售房屋，并有利润。

As a response to the slowing housing market, many investors are turning to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

作为对住房市场放缓的回应，许多投资者正在将比特币作为价值的替代存储。

The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, which makes it inherently scarce compared to real estate, which can be influenced by debt cycles and ongoing development.

比特币的总供应限制为2100万个硬币，这使其与房地产相比固有地稀缺，这可能会受到债务周期和持续发展的影响。

Institutions are playing a major role in driving up the demand for Bitcoin with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, which triggered a massive wave of institutional inflows.

在2024年初，通过现货比特币ETF的批准，机构在提高对比特币的需求方面发挥了重要作用，这引发了大量机构流入。

A growing number of investors are also withdrawing their Bitcoin from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in its long-term potential rather than treating it as a short-term trade.

越来越多的投资者还从交易所中撤出了比特币，这表明其长期潜力的坚定信念，而不是将其视为短期贸易。

RISING MORTGAGE RATES PUSH INVESTORS TOWARD ALTERNATIVE STORES OF VALUE

抵押贷款利率上升将投资者推向价值的替代商店

The housing market is experiencing a sharp slowdown as a result of high mortgage rates and an increase in home inventory. This is making it more difficult to sell homes quickly and at a profit.

由于抵押贷款率高和房屋库存的增加，住房市场正在急剧放缓。这使得很难快速出售房屋，并有利润。

The average 30-year mortgage rate remains high at 6.96%, a stark contrast to the 3%–5% rates common before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the median U.S. home-sale price has risen 4% year-over-year, but this increase hasn't translated into a stronger market—affordability pressures have kept demand subdued.

30年的平均抵押贷款利率仍为6.96％，这与大流行前常见的3％–5％的利率形成鲜明对比。同时，美国房屋销售价格同比上涨4％，但这种增长并未转化为更强大的市场 - 可承受性压力使需求不断减轻。

According to recent data, the average home is now selling for 1.8% below asking price — the biggest discount in nearly two years. Meanwhile, the time it takes to sell a typical home has stretched to 56 days, marking the longest wait in five years.

根据最近的数据，平均房屋现在的售价低于要价1.8％，这是近两年来最大的折扣。同时，出售典型房屋所需的时间已延长至56天，标志着五年来最长的等待时间。

In Florida, the slowdown is even more pronounced. In cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale, over 60% of listings have remained unsold for more than two months. Some homes in the state are selling for as much as 5% below their listed price — the steepest discount in the country.

在佛罗里达州，放缓更加明显。在迈阿密和劳德代尔堡等城市中，超过60％的上市持续了两个多月。该州的一些房屋的售价低于其上市价格高达5％，这是该国最陡峭的折扣。

As a response to the slowing housing market, many investors are turning to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

作为对住房市场放缓的回应，许多投资者正在将比特币作为价值的替代存储。

The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, which makes it inherently scarce compared to real estate, which can be influenced by debt cycles and ongoing development that expands supply.

比特币的总供应限制为2100万个硬币，这与房地产相比本质上很少，这可能会受到债务周期和不断扩大供应的持续发展的影响。

This scarcity is colliding with surging demand, particularly from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 triggered a massive wave of institutional inflows, shifting the supply-demand balance.

这种稀缺性与需求激增，尤其是机构投资者的激增，增强了比特币作为长期价值存储的作用。 2024年初，批准比特币ETF引发了大量的机构流入，转移了供求平衡。

Since their launch, these ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in net inflows, with financial giants like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity controlling the majority of holdings. The demand surge has absorbed Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, with daily ETF purchases ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 BTC — far exceeding the roughly 500 new coins mined each day. This growing supply deficit is making Bitcoin increasingly scarce in the open market.

自发布以来，这些ETF吸引了超过400亿美元的净流入，金融巨头（Blackrock，Grayscale）等金融巨头控制着大多数持股。需求激增以前所未有的速度吸收了比特币，每天购买的ETF从1,000到3,000 BTC不等，远远超过了每天开采的大约500个新硬币。这种日益增长的供应不足正在使比特币在公开市场上越来越稀缺。

At the same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to 2.5 million BTC, the lowest level in three years. More investors are withdrawing their holdings from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential rather than treating it as a short-term trade.

同时，比特币交换储量已降至250万BTC，这是三年来最低水平。越来越多的投资者正在从交易所中撤回其股份，这表明比特币的长期潜力有着强烈的信念，而不是将其视为短期贸易。

Further reinforcing this trend, long-term holders continue to dominate supply. As of December 2023, 71% of all Bitcoin had remained untouched for over a year, highlighting deep investor commitment.

进一步加强了这一趋势，长期持有人继续主导供应。截至2023年12月，一年多的所有比特币中，有71％的比特币仍未受到影响，强调了投资者的承诺。

While this figure has slightly declined to 62% as of Feb. 18, the broader trend points to Bitcoin becoming an increasingly tightly held asset over time.

截至2月18日，该数字略有下降至62％，但随着时间的推移，比特币变得越来越紧密的资产。

This institutional demand and scarcity are driving up the price of Bitcoin, making it a more attractive option for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and a store of value that can appreciate over time. As a result, we are seeing a shift in investment preferences, with younger generations prioritizing digital assets like Bitcoin over traditional real estate.

这种机构需求和稀缺性促使比特币的价格提高了价格，这对于寻求对冲通货膨胀的投资者而言，它是一个更具吸引力的选择，并且可以随着时间的推移而欣赏的价值。结果，我们看到投资偏好的变化，年轻一代优先考虑比特币之类的数字资产而不是传统房地产。

A NEW GENERATION OF INVESTORS PREFERS DIGITAL ASSETS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE ‘FLIPPENING’

新一代的投资者更喜欢数字资产，为“转运”奠定了基础

As of January 2025, the median U.S. home-sale price stands at $350,667, with mortgage rates hovering near 7%. This combination has pushed monthly mortgage payments to record highs, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for younger generations.

截至2025年1月，美国房屋出售价格为350,667美元，抵押贷款利率徘徊在接近7％。这种组合已将月度抵押贷款付款以记录高点，使年轻一代的房屋越来越无法实现。

To put this into perspective: A homebuyer putting 20% down on a $350,000 home at a 7% interest rate would pay around $1,925 in principal and interest each month. Over 30 years, this would add up

从这个角度来看：一个购房者以7％的利率将20％的房屋投入350,000美元的房屋，每月的本金和利息约为1,925美元。 30多年来，这将加起来