瞬息萬變的是不到來 - 它是：比特幣作為價值的終極存儲而出現

多年來，房地產一直是建立財富的最可靠方法之一。房屋價值通常會隨著時間的推移而上升，財產所有權已經很長

Rising mortgage rates and a slowing real estate market are driving investors toward alternative stores of value, such as Bitcoin (BTC). Here's how the two assets compare and how they're impacting each other.

抵押貸款利率上升和房地產市場放緩正在推動投資者朝著替代價值商店（例如比特幣（BTC））邁進。這是兩個資產比較以及它們如何相互影響的方式。

Key Takeaways

關鍵要點

The housing market is slowing as a result of high mortgage rates and an increase in home inventory. This is making it more difficult to sell homes quickly and at a profit.

由於高抵押貸款利率和房屋庫存增加，住房市場正在放緩。這使得很難快速出售房屋，並有利潤。

As a response to the slowing housing market, many investors are turning to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

作為對住房市場放緩的回應，許多投資者正在將比特幣作為價值的替代存儲。

The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, which makes it inherently scarce compared to real estate, which can be influenced by debt cycles and ongoing development.

比特幣的總供應限制為2100萬個硬幣，這使其與房地產相比固有地稀缺，這可能會受到債務週期和持續發展的影響。

Institutions are playing a major role in driving up the demand for Bitcoin with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, which triggered a massive wave of institutional inflows.

在2024年初，通過現貨比特幣ETF的批准，機構在提高對比特幣的需求方面發揮了重要作用，這引發了大量機構流入。

A growing number of investors are also withdrawing their Bitcoin from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in its long-term potential rather than treating it as a short-term trade.

越來越多的投資者還從交易所中撤出了比特幣，這表明其長期潛力的堅定信念，而不是將其視為短期貿易。

RISING MORTGAGE RATES PUSH INVESTORS TOWARD ALTERNATIVE STORES OF VALUE

抵押貸款利率上升將投資者推向價值的替代商店

The housing market is experiencing a sharp slowdown as a result of high mortgage rates and an increase in home inventory. This is making it more difficult to sell homes quickly and at a profit.

由於抵押貸款率高和房屋庫存的增加，住房市場正在急劇放緩。這使得很難快速出售房屋，並有利潤。

The average 30-year mortgage rate remains high at 6.96%, a stark contrast to the 3%–5% rates common before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the median U.S. home-sale price has risen 4% year-over-year, but this increase hasn't translated into a stronger market—affordability pressures have kept demand subdued.

30年的平均抵押貸款利率仍為6.96％，這與大流行前常見的3％–5％的利率形成鮮明對比。同時，美國房屋銷售價格同比上漲4％，但這種增長並未轉化為更強大的市場 - 可承受性壓力使需求不斷減輕。

According to recent data, the average home is now selling for 1.8% below asking price — the biggest discount in nearly two years. Meanwhile, the time it takes to sell a typical home has stretched to 56 days, marking the longest wait in five years.

根據最近的數據，平均房屋現在的售價低於要價1.8％，這是近兩年來最大的折扣。同時，出售典型房屋所需的時間已延長至56天，標誌著五年來最長的等待時間。

In Florida, the slowdown is even more pronounced. In cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale, over 60% of listings have remained unsold for more than two months. Some homes in the state are selling for as much as 5% below their listed price — the steepest discount in the country.

在佛羅里達州，放緩更加明顯。在邁阿密和勞德代爾堡等城市中，超過60％的上市持續了兩個多月。該州的一些房屋的售價低於其上市價格高達5％，這是該國最陡峭的折扣。

As a response to the slowing housing market, many investors are turning to Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

作為對住房市場放緩的回應，許多投資者正在將比特幣作為價值的替代存儲。

The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, which makes it inherently scarce compared to real estate, which can be influenced by debt cycles and ongoing development that expands supply.

比特幣的總供應限制為2100萬個硬幣，這與房地產相比本質上很少，這可能會受到債務週期和不斷擴大供應的持續發展的影響。

This scarcity is colliding with surging demand, particularly from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 triggered a massive wave of institutional inflows, shifting the supply-demand balance.

這種稀缺性與需求激增，尤其是機構投資者的激增，增強了比特幣作為長期價值存儲的作用。 2024年初，批准比特幣ETF引發了大量的機構流入，轉移了供求平衡。

Since their launch, these ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in net inflows, with financial giants like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity controlling the majority of holdings. The demand surge has absorbed Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, with daily ETF purchases ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 BTC — far exceeding the roughly 500 new coins mined each day. This growing supply deficit is making Bitcoin increasingly scarce in the open market.

自發布以來，這些ETF吸引了超過400億美元的淨流入，金融巨頭（Blackrock，Grayscale）等金融巨頭控制著大多數持股。需求激增以前所未有的速度吸收了比特幣，每天購買的ETF從1,000到3,000 BTC不等，遠遠超過了每天開采的大約500個新硬幣。這種日益增長的供應不足正在使比特幣在公開市場上越來越稀缺。

At the same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to 2.5 million BTC, the lowest level in three years. More investors are withdrawing their holdings from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential rather than treating it as a short-term trade.

同時，比特幣交換儲量已降至250萬BTC，這是三年來最低水平。越來越多的投資者正在從交易所中撤回其股份，這表明比特幣的長期潛力有著強烈的信念，而不是將其視為短期貿易。

Further reinforcing this trend, long-term holders continue to dominate supply. As of December 2023, 71% of all Bitcoin had remained untouched for over a year, highlighting deep investor commitment.

進一步加強了這一趨勢，長期持有人繼續主導供應。截至2023年12月，一年多的所有比特幣中，有71％的比特幣仍未受到影響，強調了投資者的承諾。

While this figure has slightly declined to 62% as of Feb. 18, the broader trend points to Bitcoin becoming an increasingly tightly held asset over time.

截至2月18日，該數字略有下降至62％，但隨著時間的推移，比特幣變得越來越緊密的資產。

This institutional demand and scarcity are driving up the price of Bitcoin, making it a more attractive option for investors seeking a hedge against inflation and a store of value that can appreciate over time. As a result, we are seeing a shift in investment preferences, with younger generations prioritizing digital assets like Bitcoin over traditional real estate.

這種機構需求和稀缺性促使比特幣的價格提高了價格，這對於尋求對沖通貨膨脹的投資者而言，它是一個更具吸引力的選擇，並且可以隨著時間的推移而欣賞的價值。結果，我們看到投資偏好的變化，年輕一代優先考慮比特幣之類的數字資產而不是傳統房地產。

A NEW GENERATION OF INVESTORS PREFERS DIGITAL ASSETS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE ‘FLIPPENING’

新一代的投資者更喜歡數字資產，為“轉運”奠定了基礎

As of January 2025, the median U.S. home-sale price stands at $350,667, with mortgage rates hovering near 7%. This combination has pushed monthly mortgage payments to record highs, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for younger generations.

截至2025年1月，美國房屋出售價格為350,667美元，抵押貸款利率徘徊在接近7％。這種組合已將月度抵押貸款付款以記錄高點，使年輕一代的房屋越來越無法實現。

To put this into perspective: A homebuyer putting 20% down on a $350,000 home at a 7% interest rate would pay around $1,925 in principal and interest each month. Over 30 years, this would add up

從這個角度來看：一個購房者以7％的利率將20％的房屋投入350,000美元的房屋，每月的本金和利息約為1,925美元。 30多年來，這將加起來