美联储2025年的第一次会议将是市场的非事件，包括加密货币

2025年的第一次美联储（美联储）会议将于周三结束，预定在UTC 19:00发布的税率决定。

The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2025 will conclude on Wednesday, with the rate decision set to be公布ed at 19:00 UTC. It will be followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference at 19:30 UTC.

2025年的第一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将于周三结束，其率决定定于19:00 UTC。随后将在UTC 19:30举行董事长杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会。

The Fed's ongoing target range for interest rates is 4.25% to 4.5%, which has declined by 100 basis points since September. The December meeting saw a 25 basis point rate cut, but the accompanying press conference and forecasts signaled slower rate cuts for 2025, sending risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC), lower.

美联储的利率持续目标范围为4.25％至4.5％，自9月以来，这一目标范围下降了100个基点。 12月的会议降低了25个基点率，但随附的新闻发布会和预测表明，降低了2025年的降低速度，发送了风险资产，包括比特币（BTC），较低。

However, Wednesday's meeting is largely being seen as a non-event for markets, including cryptocurrencies, as policymakers are expected to hold rates steady while maintaining the hawkish forward guidance from December.

但是，周三的会议在很大程度上被视为包括加密货币在内的市场的非赛事，因​​为预计决策者将保持稳定的速度，同时从12月起维持鹰派前锋指导。

"We doubt this week's FOMC meeting will be a major market mover as the unchanged rate decision has been well communicated in advance back in December. The minutes revealed participants have already made some preliminary assumptions on Trump's policies, but given the considerable uncertainty, we doubt Powell will feel comfortable providing markets with any strong guidance," Danske Bank said in a note to clients Tuesday.

“我们怀疑本周的FOMC会议将是一个主要的市场推动者，因为不变的利率决定已在12月提前进行了很好的沟通。会议记录显示，参与者已经对特朗普的政策做出了一些初步假设，但是鉴于相当多的不确定性，我们怀疑，我们怀疑鲍威尔将在为市场提供任何有力的指导方面感到很舒服。”

That said, Powell will likely face questions on the following key issues, and his responses could move markets.

也就是说，鲍威尔可能会在以下关键问题上面临问题，他的回答可能会转移市场。

Deportation of illegal immigrants

非法移民

President Donald Trump is already making good on his campaign promises to eject illegal immigrants from the U.S., with deportation flights rolling out over the weekend. Per estimates, total deportations could range from one million to 10 million.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统已经在他的竞选活动中做出了良好的承诺，将在周末驱逐出境，将驱逐出境驱逐出境。根据估计，总驱逐出境的范围可能从100万到1000万。

Analysts anticipate that substantial deportations will bolster labor market strength and contribute to inflation. If Powell shares a similar perspective, it could dampen expectations for rate cuts, potentially leading to a decline in risk assets.

分析师预计，大量驱逐出境将增强劳动力市场的实力并为通货膨胀做出贡献。如果鲍威尔（Powell）具有类似的观点，它可能会削弱对降低税率的期望，可能导致风险资产下降。

"The disappearance of up to 1 million potential workers from the U.S. labor force would be no small thing. Given the strength of Friday's (December) payrolls report, a tightening in the U.S. labor supply would add further pressure to a jobs market that is already showing signs of tightening and has an unemployment rate close to the full-employment level," Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Benjamin Picton said in a note to clients early this month.

“从美国劳动力中多达100万潜在工人消失将不是小事。鉴于星期五（12月）的工资报告的实力，美国劳动力供应的收紧将为就已经已经存在的就业市场增加压力拉巴克（Rabobank）的高级宏观战略家本杰明·皮克顿（Benjamin Picton）在本月初对客户的一份报告中说：“显示出收紧的迹象，并具有接近全部就业水平的失业率。”

"That is inflationary in and of itself, and that is before we consider the additional impacts of tax cuts and tariffs," Picton added.

Picton补充说：“这本身就是通货膨胀，也就是说，在我们考虑减税和关税的其他影响之前。”

U.S. debt ceiling

美国债务上限

The U.S. hit its self-imposed debt ceiling of $36 trillion last week, leading to the Treasury starting extraordinary measures to keep the government functioning. One of the measures involves running down the government's checking account at the Fed called the Treasury General Account (TGA).

上周，美国击中了其自我施加的债务上限为36万亿美元，导致财政部开始了非凡的措施，以保持政府的运作。其中一项措施涉及在称为美国财政部总帐户（TGA）的美联储中运行政府的支票帐户。

The TGA spending usually eases liquidity conditions in the economy and markets, spurring risk-taking. That might counter the effects of the Fed's ongoing quantitive tightening (balance sheet normalization process).

TGA支出通常会缓解经济和市场的流动性状况，从而促进冒险。这可能应对美联储正在进行的定量收紧（资产负债表归一化过程）的影响。

Powell might get questions on the same and may look to avoid sounding dovish while the TGA spend adds liquidity to the system, thus capping the upside in risk assets for now.

鲍威尔（Powell）可能会收到同样的问题，并且可能会避免在TGA支出为系统增加流动性时避免发出狡猾的声音，从而暂时将上涨空间限制。

Rent inflation

租金通货膨胀

Leading indicators point to a moderation in shelter inflation, which has an outsized influence on the consumer price index.

领先的指标表明，住房通货膨胀的适度，对消费者价格指数产生了巨大影响。

"The Labor Department's "all tenant rent" index, which leads shelter inflation in the CPI, rose at a much slower pace last quarter. It was up 3.2% over the four quarters ended Q4 (vs. 3.9% in Q3 and 5.5% one year ago). It's very close to the 3.1% average between 2017-19," Wall Street Journal's Chief Economic Correspondent Nick Timaros said on X last week.

“所有劳工部的“所有租户租金”指数领导CPI的庇护通货膨胀，上个季度的速度都较慢。该季度比四个季度上涨了3.2％，以第4季度结束（第三季度为3.9％，一季度为5.5％。一年前）。

Risk assets could surge if Powell acknowledges the disinflationary trend in the leading indicators of shelter inflation.

如果鲍威尔（Powell）承认住房通货膨胀指标的解散趋势，风险资产可能会激增。