美聯儲2025年的第一次會議將是市場的非事件，包括加密貨幣

2025年的第一次美聯儲（美聯儲）會議將於週三結束，預定在UTC 19:00發布的稅率決定。

The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2025 will conclude on Wednesday, with the rate decision set to be公布ed at 19:00 UTC. It will be followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference at 19:30 UTC.

2025年的第一次聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議將於週三結束，其率決定定於19:00 UTC。隨後將在UTC 19:30舉行董事長杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的新聞發布會。

The Fed's ongoing target range for interest rates is 4.25% to 4.5%, which has declined by 100 basis points since September. The December meeting saw a 25 basis point rate cut, but the accompanying press conference and forecasts signaled slower rate cuts for 2025, sending risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC), lower.

美聯儲的利率持續目標範圍為4.25％至4.5％，自9月以來，這一目標範圍下降了100個基點。 12月的會議降低了25個基點率，但隨附的新聞發布會和預測表明，降低了2025年的降低速度，發送了風險資產，包括比特幣（BTC），較低。

However, Wednesday's meeting is largely being seen as a non-event for markets, including cryptocurrencies, as policymakers are expected to hold rates steady while maintaining the hawkish forward guidance from December.

但是，週三的會議在很大程度上被視為包括加密貨幣在內的市場的非賽事，因​​為預計決策者將保持穩定的速度，同時從12月起維持鷹派前鋒指導。

"We doubt this week's FOMC meeting will be a major market mover as the unchanged rate decision has been well communicated in advance back in December. The minutes revealed participants have already made some preliminary assumptions on Trump's policies, but given the considerable uncertainty, we doubt Powell will feel comfortable providing markets with any strong guidance," Danske Bank said in a note to clients Tuesday.

“我們懷疑本週的FOMC會議將是一個主要的市場推動者，因為不變的利率決定已在12月提前進行了很好的溝通。會議記錄顯示，參與者已經對特朗普的政策做出了一些初步假設，但是鑑於相當多的不確定性，我們懷疑，我們懷疑鮑威爾將在為市場提供任何有力的指導方面感到很舒服。”

That said, Powell will likely face questions on the following key issues, and his responses could move markets.

也就是說，鮑威爾可能會在以下關鍵問題上面臨問題，他的回答可能會轉移市場。

Deportation of illegal immigrants

非法移民

President Donald Trump is already making good on his campaign promises to eject illegal immigrants from the U.S., with deportation flights rolling out over the weekend. Per estimates, total deportations could range from one million to 10 million.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統已經在他的競選活動中做出了良好的承諾，將在周末驅逐出境，將驅逐出境驅逐出境。根據估計，總驅逐出境的範圍可能從100萬到1000萬。

Analysts anticipate that substantial deportations will bolster labor market strength and contribute to inflation. If Powell shares a similar perspective, it could dampen expectations for rate cuts, potentially leading to a decline in risk assets.

分析師預計，大量驅逐出境將增強勞動力市場的實力並為通貨膨脹做出貢獻。如果鮑威爾（Powell）具有類似的觀點，它可能會削弱對降低稅率的期望，可能導致風險資產下降。

"The disappearance of up to 1 million potential workers from the U.S. labor force would be no small thing. Given the strength of Friday's (December) payrolls report, a tightening in the U.S. labor supply would add further pressure to a jobs market that is already showing signs of tightening and has an unemployment rate close to the full-employment level," Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Benjamin Picton said in a note to clients early this month.

“從美國勞動力中多達100萬潛在工人消失將不是小事。鑑於星期五（12月）的工資報告的實力，美國勞動力供應的收緊將為就已經已經存在的就業市場增加壓力拉巴克（Rabobank）的高級宏觀戰略家本傑明·皮克頓（Benjamin Picton）在本月初對客戶的一份報告中說：“顯示出收緊的跡象，並具有接近全部就業水平的失業率。”

"That is inflationary in and of itself, and that is before we consider the additional impacts of tax cuts and tariffs," Picton added.

Picton補充說：“這本身就是通貨膨脹，也就是說，在我們考慮減稅和關稅的其他影響之前。”

U.S. debt ceiling

美國債務上限

The U.S. hit its self-imposed debt ceiling of $36 trillion last week, leading to the Treasury starting extraordinary measures to keep the government functioning. One of the measures involves running down the government's checking account at the Fed called the Treasury General Account (TGA).

上週，美國擊中了其自我施加的債務上限為36萬億美元，導致財政部開始了非凡的措施，以保持政府的運作。其中一項措施涉及在稱為美國財政部總帳戶（TGA）的美聯儲中運行政府的支票帳戶。

The TGA spending usually eases liquidity conditions in the economy and markets, spurring risk-taking. That might counter the effects of the Fed's ongoing quantitive tightening (balance sheet normalization process).

TGA支出通常會緩解經濟和市場的流動性狀況，從而促進冒險。這可能應對美聯儲正在進行的定量收緊（資產負債表歸一化過程）的影響。

Powell might get questions on the same and may look to avoid sounding dovish while the TGA spend adds liquidity to the system, thus capping the upside in risk assets for now.

鮑威爾（Powell）可能會收到同樣的問題，並且可能會避免在TGA支出為系統增加流動性時避免發出狡猾的聲音，從而暫時將上漲空間限制。

Rent inflation

租金通貨膨脹

Leading indicators point to a moderation in shelter inflation, which has an outsized influence on the consumer price index.

領先的指標表明，住房通貨膨脹的適度，對消費者價格指數產生了巨大影響。

"The Labor Department's "all tenant rent" index, which leads shelter inflation in the CPI, rose at a much slower pace last quarter. It was up 3.2% over the four quarters ended Q4 (vs. 3.9% in Q3 and 5.5% one year ago). It's very close to the 3.1% average between 2017-19," Wall Street Journal's Chief Economic Correspondent Nick Timaros said on X last week.

“所有勞工部的“所有租戶租金”指數領導CPI的庇護通貨膨脹，上個季度的速度都較慢。該季度比四個季度上漲了3.2％，以第4季度結束（第三季度為3.9％ ，一季度為5.5％。一年前）。

Risk assets could surge if Powell acknowledges the disinflationary trend in the leading indicators of shelter inflation.

如果鮑威爾（Powell）承認住房通貨膨脹指標的解散趨勢，風險資產可能會激增。