刀片警告进一步推动了抛售风险

以太坊的本地令牌Ether（ETH）已降至对比特币（BTC）的多年低点，促使分析师预测未来几周的进一步下降。

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped to its multi-year lows against Bitcoin (BTC), prompting analysts to predict further declines in the coming weeks.

以太坊的本地令牌Ether（ETH）已降至对比特币（BTC）的多年低点，促使分析师预测未来几周的进一步下降。

Falling knife warning furthers sell-off risks

刀片警告进一步推动了抛售风险

On March 13, ETH/BTC—a pair that tracks Ether’s strength against Bitcoin—dropped by over 1.50% to reach $0.022, its lowest level since May 2020.

3月13日，ETH/BTC（一对跟踪Ether对比特币的强度）的副本降低了1.50％以上，达到0.022美元，这是自2020年5月以来的最低水平。

ETH’s descent is part of its multi-year downtrend that started when it established a record high of $0.156 in June 2017. Since then, it has plunged by more than 85%, underscoring Ether’s growing weakness against Bitcoin.

ETH的下降是其多年下降趋势的一部分，该趋势始于2017年6月创建创纪录的0.156美元。从那时起，它跌幅超过85％，强调了Ether对比特币的疲软越来越大。

Meanwhile, on the two-week ETH/BTC chart, the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has fallen to a record low of 23.32.

同时，在为期两周的ETH/BTC图表上，相对强度指数（RSI）是用于测量资产是否过多还是超额销售的动量指标，已降至创纪录的低点23.32。

ETH/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC两周的价格图。资料来源：TradingView

Typically, when RSI drops below 30, it signals oversold conditions, potentially leading to a price rebound.

通常，当RSI降至30以下时，它标志着超售条件，可能导致价格反弹。

However, in Ethereum’s case, RSI has continued to plunge even lower even two months after becoming oversold, suggesting that ETH’s downtrend is still accelerating rather than stabilizing.

但是，就以太坊而言，RSI在超卖两个月后继续下降甚至降低，这表明ETH的下降仍在加速而不是稳定。

Crypto analyst Alessandro Ottaviani has described the situation as a “falling knife” scenario—a term used to describe an asset that is experiencing a rapid and steep decline, often discouraging buyers from stepping in too soon.

加密分析师Alessandro Ottaviani将这种情况描述为一种“下降的刀”场景，一个用来描述一种经历快速而急剧下降的资产的术语，通常使买家过早介入。

A falling knife implies that attempting to catch the asset at a perceived low could lead to further losses if the downtrend persists.

掉落的刀意味着，如果下降趋势持续存在，试图以低位捕获资产可能会导致进一步的损失。

For Ethereum to signal a potential reversal, traders will be watching for RSI stabilization and reclaim of key resistance levels. That ideally begins with a rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, which had limited ETH/BTC’s downside attempts in December 2020, leading to a 300% rally.

为了使以太坊标志着潜在的逆转，交易者将关注RSI稳定和重新确定关键阻力水平。理想情况下，从0.022 BTC级别的反弹开始，该水平在2020年12月的ETH/BTC的下行尝试限制，导致了300％的集会。

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC每周价格图。资料来源：TradingView

Should a rebound happen, the ETH/BTC pair can rally toward its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line at around 0.038 BTC, aligning with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).

如果发生反弹，ETH/BTC对可以在0.038 BTC左右朝着其0.382的斐波那契回回线跃升，与50周的指数移动平均线（50周EMA；红波）保持一致。

Until then, the technical outlook suggests that ETH/BTC could remain trapped in its falling knife trajectory, with the next potential downside targets at historical support levels inside the 0.020-0.016 BTC range.

在此之前，技术前景表明，ETH/BTC可能仍会被困在其下降的刀轨迹中，而在0.020-0.016 BTC范围内的历史支持水平下，下一个潜在的下跌目标。

ETH/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC两周的价格图。资料来源：TradingView

The lowest point of this range is approximately 30% below the current price levels.

该范围的最低点比当前价格水平低约30％。

ETH/BTC fundamentals support a bearish outlook

ETH/BTC基础知识支持看跌前景

Ether’s prospects of declining further against Bitcoin are rooted in factors beyond technical analysis.

Ether对比特币进一步下降的前景植根于技术分析以外的因素。

For instance, Ethereum currently faces strong competition from rival layer-1 blockchains, namely Solana (SOL).

例如，以太坊目前面临着竞争对手1层区块链的激烈竞争，即Solana（Sol）。

Related: 'The worst thing that happened to Ethereum' — Bitcoin up 160% since the Merge

相关：“以太坊发生的最糟糕的事情” - 自合并以来，比特币上涨了160％

VanEck noted that Solana’s decentralized exchange volume has surpassed Ethereum’s even during a steep dropoff in memecoin trading activity. Meanwhile, Solana’s volume has risen consistently in recent months, which coincides with a decline in Ethereum’s volumes.

Vaneck指出，即使在Memecoin交易活动的陡峭下降期间，Solana的分散式交换量也超过了以太坊。同时，最近几个月，Solana的数量一直在增加，这与以太坊的数量下降相吻合。

Solana vs. Ethereum DEX volumes. Source: VanEck

Solana vs. Ethereum Dex卷。资料来源：Vaneck

Furthermore, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally altered the traditional crypto market cycle that used to benefit Ethereum and other altcoins.

此外，现货比特币ETF的推出从根本上改变了用于使以太坊和其他山寨币受益的传统加密市场周期。

Historically, after Bitcoin surged post-halving, capital rotated into altcoins, triggering an “altseason” where ETH and other assets outperformed BTC. However, the $129 billion inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 have disrupted this cycle, draining liquidity from the broader altcoin market—including Ethereum.

从历史上看，在比特币飙升后，资本旋转成山寨币，引发了ETH和其他资产优于BTC的“ Altseason”。然而，2024年的1,290亿美元流入比特币ETF中，破坏了这一周期，从更广泛的山寨币市场（包括以太坊）流动了流动性。

Bitcoin Dominance Index weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

比特币优势指数每周价格表。资料来源：TradingView

Another factor is Ethereum-specific selling pressure.

另一个因素是特定于以太坊的销售压力。

The recent Bybit hack reportedly led to substantial ETH liquidations, with some of that value laundered via decentralized platforms like Thorchain. This absorbed sell-off may still be rippling through the market, depressing ETH’s relative value.

据报道，最近的Bybit Hack导致了大量的伦理清算，其中一些价值通过Thorchain等分散平台洗钱。这种吸收的抛售可能仍然在市场中荡漾，使ETH的相对价值降低了。