刀片警告進一步推動了拋售風險

以太坊的本地令牌Ether（ETH）已降至對比特幣（BTC）的多年低點，促使分析師預測未來幾週的進一步下降。

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped to its multi-year lows against Bitcoin (BTC), prompting analysts to predict further declines in the coming weeks.

以太坊的本地令牌Ether（ETH）已降至對比特幣（BTC）的多年低點，促使分析師預測未來幾週的進一步下降。

Falling knife warning furthers sell-off risks

刀片警告進一步推動了拋售風險

On March 13, ETH/BTC—a pair that tracks Ether’s strength against Bitcoin—dropped by over 1.50% to reach $0.022, its lowest level since May 2020.

3月13日，ETH/BTC（一對跟踪Ether對比特幣的強度）的副本降低了1.50％以上，達到0.022美元，這是自2020年5月以來的最低水平。

ETH’s descent is part of its multi-year downtrend that started when it established a record high of $0.156 in June 2017. Since then, it has plunged by more than 85%, underscoring Ether’s growing weakness against Bitcoin.

ETH的下降是其多年下降趨勢的一部分，該趨勢始於2017年6月創建創紀錄的0.156美元。從那時起，它跌幅超過85％，強調了Ether對比特幣的疲軟越來越大。

Meanwhile, on the two-week ETH/BTC chart, the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has fallen to a record low of 23.32.

同時，在為期兩週的ETH/BTC圖表上，相對強度指數（RSI）是用於測量資產是否過多還是超額銷售的動量指標，已降至創紀錄的低點23.32。

ETH/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC兩週的價格圖。資料來源：TradingView

Typically, when RSI drops below 30, it signals oversold conditions, potentially leading to a price rebound.

通常，當RSI降至30以下時，它標誌著超售條件，可能導致價格反彈。

However, in Ethereum’s case, RSI has continued to plunge even lower even two months after becoming oversold, suggesting that ETH’s downtrend is still accelerating rather than stabilizing.

但是，就以太坊而言，RSI在超賣兩個月後繼續下降甚至降低，這表明ETH的下降仍在加速而不是穩定。

Crypto analyst Alessandro Ottaviani has described the situation as a “falling knife” scenario—a term used to describe an asset that is experiencing a rapid and steep decline, often discouraging buyers from stepping in too soon.

加密分析師Alessandro Ottaviani將這種情況描述為一種“下降的刀”場景，一個用來描述一種經歷快速而急劇下降的資產的術語，通常使買家過早介入。

A falling knife implies that attempting to catch the asset at a perceived low could lead to further losses if the downtrend persists.

掉落的刀意味著，如果下降趨勢持續存在，試圖以低位捕獲資產可能會導致進一步的損失。

For Ethereum to signal a potential reversal, traders will be watching for RSI stabilization and reclaim of key resistance levels. That ideally begins with a rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, which had limited ETH/BTC’s downside attempts in December 2020, leading to a 300% rally.

為了使以太坊標誌著潛在的逆轉，交易者將關注RSI穩定和重新確定關鍵阻力水平。理想情況下，從0.022 BTC級別的反彈開始，該水平在2020年12月的ETH/BTC的下行嘗試限制，導致了300％的集會。

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC每週價格圖。資料來源：TradingView

Should a rebound happen, the ETH/BTC pair can rally toward its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line at around 0.038 BTC, aligning with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).

如果發生反彈，ETH/BTC對可以在0.038 BTC左右朝著其0.382的斐波那契回迴線躍升，與50週的指數移動平均線（50週EMA；紅波）保持一致。

Until then, the technical outlook suggests that ETH/BTC could remain trapped in its falling knife trajectory, with the next potential downside targets at historical support levels inside the 0.020-0.016 BTC range.

在此之前，技術前景表明，ETH/BTC可能仍會被困在其下降的刀軌跡中，而在0.020-0.016 BTC範圍內的歷史支持水平下，下一個潛在的下跌目標。

ETH/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC兩週的價格圖。資料來源：TradingView

The lowest point of this range is approximately 30% below the current price levels.

該範圍的最低點比當前價格水平低約30％。

ETH/BTC fundamentals support a bearish outlook

ETH/BTC基礎知識支持看跌前景

Ether’s prospects of declining further against Bitcoin are rooted in factors beyond technical analysis.

Ether對比特幣進一步下降的前景植根於技術分析以外的因素。

For instance, Ethereum currently faces strong competition from rival layer-1 blockchains, namely Solana (SOL).

例如，以太坊目前面臨著競爭對手1層區塊鏈的激烈競爭，即Solana（Sol）。

Related: 'The worst thing that happened to Ethereum' — Bitcoin up 160% since the Merge

相關：“以太坊發生的最糟糕的事情” - 自合併以來，比特幣上漲了160％

VanEck noted that Solana’s decentralized exchange volume has surpassed Ethereum’s even during a steep dropoff in memecoin trading activity. Meanwhile, Solana’s volume has risen consistently in recent months, which coincides with a decline in Ethereum’s volumes.

Vaneck指出，即使在Memecoin交易活動的陡峭下降期間，Solana的分散式交換量也超過了以太坊。同時，最近幾個月，Solana的數量一直在增加，這與以太坊的數量下降相吻合。

Solana vs. Ethereum DEX volumes. Source: VanEck

Solana vs. Ethereum Dex卷。資料來源：Vaneck

Furthermore, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally altered the traditional crypto market cycle that used to benefit Ethereum and other altcoins.

此外，現貨比特幣ETF的推出從根本上改變了用於使以太坊和其他山寨幣受益的傳統加密市場週期。

Historically, after Bitcoin surged post-halving, capital rotated into altcoins, triggering an “altseason” where ETH and other assets outperformed BTC. However, the $129 billion inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 have disrupted this cycle, draining liquidity from the broader altcoin market—including Ethereum.

從歷史上看，在比特幣飆升後，資本旋轉成山寨幣，引發了ETH和其他資產優於BTC的“ Altseason”。然而，2024年的1,290億美元流入比特幣ETF中，破壞了這一周期，從更廣泛的山寨幣市場（包括以太坊）流動了流動性。

Bitcoin Dominance Index weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

比特幣優勢指數每週價格表。資料來源：TradingView

Another factor is Ethereum-specific selling pressure.

另一個因素是特定於以太坊的銷售壓力。

The recent Bybit hack reportedly led to substantial ETH liquidations, with some of that value laundered via decentralized platforms like Thorchain. This absorbed sell-off may still be rippling through the market, depressing ETH’s relative value.

據報導，最近的Bybit Hack導致了大量的倫理清算，其中一些價值通過Thorchain等分散平台洗錢。這種吸收的拋售可能仍然在市場中蕩漾，使ETH的相對價值降低了。