ETH价格需要29％的收入才能收回$ 2.5K

在3月8日至3月11日之间，Ether（ETH）下降了13％，因为投资者转移到了短期固定收入和现金头寸

Ether (ETH) price dropped 13% between March 8 and March 11 as investors moved to short-term fixed-income and cash positions amid a global tariff war and rising fears of an economic downturn.

在3月8日至3月11日之间，Ether（ETH）的价格下跌了13％，因为投资者在全球关税战争和对经济衰退的担忧上升的情况下转移到了短期固定收入和现金头寸。

ETH price needs 29% gains to reclaim $2.5K

ETH价格需要29％的收入才能收回$ 2.5K

S&P 500 futures (left, magenta) vs. Ether/USD (blue). Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph

标普500期货（左，洋红色）与Ether/USD（蓝色）。资料来源：TradingView/Cointelegraph

Typically, traders tend to overreact, increasing the likelihood that Ether will rebound faster than other assets once market sentiment improves. While some maintain that risk assets are driven by inflation and economic growth data, others argue that gains depend on stimulus measures and monetary expansion.

通常，交易者倾向于反应过度，增加一旦市场情绪改善，以太的可能性比其他资产的反弹速度更快。尽管有些人认为风险资产是由通货膨胀和经济增长数据驱动的，但其他人则认为收益取决于刺激措施和货币扩张。

Regardless of the catalyst for the next bull run, Ether price must climb 29% from its current $1,940 level to reclaim $2,500. This move will likely require increased demand from leveraged buyers, whose activity is now at its lowest point in five months.

不管下一次公牛跑的催化剂如何，以太价格从目前的1,940美元级别攀升29％，才能收回2,500美元。此举可能需要增加杠杆买家的需求，杠杆买家的活动现在在五个月内处于最低点。

ETH 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch/Cointelegraph

ETH 2个月期货年度溢价。资料来源：laevitas.ch/cointelegraph

Traders want higher prices to compensate for longer settlement periods, making a 5% to 10% annualized premium (basis rate) expected in neutral markets. When rates fall below this range—such as the current 4.5%—it signals weak bullish conviction.

交易者希望更高的价格弥补更长的结算期，使中性市场预期的年度溢价（基本率）达到5％至10％。当利率低于此范围（例如目前的4.5％）时，它标志着看涨的信念较弱。

Excessive optimism played a role in Ether’s recent correction, as $235 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated between March 10 and March 11.

过度的乐观情绪在Ether最近的纠正中发挥了作用，因为在3月10日至3月11日之间，有2.35亿美元的杠杆率长度被清算。

The panic selling drove ETH to a low of $1,744, its lowest level since October 2023. However, several indicators suggest a potential recovery, as ETH derivatives and onchain metrics show resilience.

恐慌销售将ETH驱动到1,744美元的最低水平，这是自2023年10月以来的最低水平。但是，由于ETH衍生物和OnChain指标表明弹性，有几个指标表明潜在的恢复。

Ethereum L2 network grows

以太坊L2网络增长

Ether is trading 60% below its $4,868 all-time high from November 2021. This decline is largely due to increased competition in the smart contract sector and waning demand for applications such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), gaming, collectibles, metaverse projects, social networks, and Web3 infrastructure.

Ether的交易价格低于2021年11月以来的4,868美元。这一下降在很大程度上是由于智能合同行业的竞争加剧，并且对应用程序的需求减轻了，例如不可杀死的代币（NFTS），游戏，收藏品，收藏品，元项目，社交网络，社交网络和Web3 Infrastrasture。

However, this perspective neglects a key factor. In late 2021, the average transaction fee exceeded $50, while activity on Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem was 97% lower than it is today.

但是，这种观点忽略了一个关键因素。在2021年底，平均交易费用超过50美元，而以太坊2层生态系统的活动比今天低97％。

For context, a token swap on Ethereum’s base layer cost $1.70 on March 11 despite the number of daily average operations per second growing, highlighting notable progress in network efficiency.

在上下文中，尽管以太坊的基础层的代币交换在3月11日的价格为$ 1.70，尽管每天的日常工作数量增加，这突出了网络效率的显着进步。

Ethereum layer-2 daily average operations per second. Source: L2beat

以太坊2层每日平均操作每秒。资料来源：L2Beat

Even if bots generate 80% of layer-2 transactions, the remaining 20% of activity on Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, ZKsync, and Blast is still roughly three times higher than Ethereum’s base layer. Still, critics have a valid point: despite the surge in network activity, validators are now earning considerably less compared to late 2021.

即使机器人产生了80％的第2层交易，其余的20％的活动在基础，仲裁，乐观，ZKSYNC和BLAST上仍比以太坊的基础层高三倍。尽管如此，批评家仍然有一个有效的观点：尽管网络活动激增，但与2021年末相比，验证者现在的收入要少得多。

Ethereum regains DEX top-spot, TVL grows

以太坊恢复了DEX顶部，TVL成长

Institional investors from traditional finance have preferred Bitcoin over the last year, but Ethereum is quickly catching up.

在过去的一年中，来自传统金融的工具投资者更喜欢比特币，但是​​以太坊迅速追赶。

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency is also heating up with exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as several firms are applying for the product to be listed on major stock exchanges. So far, only Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust trades publicly in the U.S.

全球第二大加密货币也正在用交易所交易的资金（ETF）加热，因为几家公司正在申请该产品在主要证券交易所上市。到目前为止，只有灰度的以太坊信托在美国公开交易

As of March 10, there are $8.9 billion in spot ETF assets under management (AUM) for Bitcoin and Ether, with no Solana or Cardano products yet approved. This first-mover advantage for the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, which began over-the-counter trading in June 2019, is a significant factor.

截至3月10日，有89亿美元的现货ETF资产（AUM）用于比特币和以太，没有Solana或Cardano产品尚未获得批准。灰度以太坊信托基金会的第一步优势是从2019年6月开始进行非处方交易的，这是一个重要因素。

Moreover, Ethereum smart contract deposits, measured by total value locked (TVL), reached their highest level since July 2022 in ETH terms on March 11, marking a 10% increase over the past two weeks.

此外，通过总价值锁定（TVL）衡量的以太坊智能合同存款在3月11日以ETH的限制以来达到了自2022年7月以来的最高水平，在过去两周中增长了10％。

Related: The strategic crypto reserve will fuel ecosystem growth

相关：战略加密储备将推动生态系统增长

Ethereum network TVL, ETH. Source: DefiLlama

以太坊网络TVL，ETH。资料来源：Defillama

At 24 million ETH, Ethereum’s TVL has been driven by the growth of liquid staking, lending, yield farming, and real-world asset tokenization. The network recently reclaimed its leading position in decentralized exchange volumes, reaching $20.5 billion over seven days and surpassing Solana’s $13.9 billion, according to DefiLlama data.

Ethereum的TVL在2400万ETH上是由液体蒸发，贷款，产量养殖和现实世界中的代币化的增长所驱动的。根据Defillama的数据，该网络最近在分散的交换量中收回了领先地位，在7天内达到了205亿美元，并超过了Solana的139亿美元。

This provides a bullish outlook for ETH’s price, driven by layer-2 transactions nearing all-time highs, reclaiming of the top spot in DEX volume, and rising TVL deposits.

这为ETH的价格提供了看涨的前景，这是由于第2层交易的驱动，接近历史最高点，在DEX量中收回了最高点以及TVL押金的上升。

Ultimately, Ether’s trend reversal remains highly dependent on macroeconomic improvements, but once stabilized, ETH is well-positioned to regain $2,500

最终，以太趋势的逆转仍然高度依赖宏观经济的改进，但是一旦稳定，ETH就可以很好地重新获得2,500美元