ETH價格需要29％的收入才能收回$ 2.5K

在3月8日至3月11日之間，Ether（ETH）下降了13％，因為投資者轉移到了短期固定收入和現金頭寸

Ether (ETH) price dropped 13% between March 8 and March 11 as investors moved to short-term fixed-income and cash positions amid a global tariff war and rising fears of an economic downturn.

在3月8日至3月11日之間，Ether（ETH）的價格下跌了13％，因為投資者在全球關稅戰爭和對經濟衰退的擔憂上升的情況下轉移到了短期固定收入和現金頭寸。

ETH price needs 29% gains to reclaim $2.5K

ETH價格需要29％的收入才能收回$ 2.5K

S&P 500 futures (left, magenta) vs. Ether/USD (blue). Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph

標普500期貨（左，洋紅色）與Ether/USD（藍色）。資料來源：TradingView/Cointelegraph

Typically, traders tend to overreact, increasing the likelihood that Ether will rebound faster than other assets once market sentiment improves. While some maintain that risk assets are driven by inflation and economic growth data, others argue that gains depend on stimulus measures and monetary expansion.

通常，交易者傾向於反應過度，增加一旦市場情緒改善，以太的可能性比其他資產的反彈速度更快。儘管有些人認為風險資產是由通貨膨脹和經濟增長數據驅動的，但其他人則認為收益取決於刺激措施和貨幣擴張。

Regardless of the catalyst for the next bull run, Ether price must climb 29% from its current $1,940 level to reclaim $2,500. This move will likely require increased demand from leveraged buyers, whose activity is now at its lowest point in five months.

不管下一次公牛跑的催化劑如何，以太價格從目前的1,940美元級別攀升29％，才能收回2,500美元。此舉可能需要增加槓桿買家的需求，槓桿買家的活動現在在五個月內處於最低點。

ETH 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch/Cointelegraph

ETH 2個月期貨年度溢價。資料來源：laevitas.ch/cointelegraph

Traders want higher prices to compensate for longer settlement periods, making a 5% to 10% annualized premium (basis rate) expected in neutral markets. When rates fall below this range—such as the current 4.5%—it signals weak bullish conviction.

交易者希望更高的價格彌補更長的結算期，使中性市場預期的年度溢價（基本率）達到5％至10％。當利率低於此範圍（例如目前的4.5％）時，它標誌著看漲的信念較弱。

Excessive optimism played a role in Ether’s recent correction, as $235 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated between March 10 and March 11.

過度的樂觀情緒在Ether最近的糾正中發揮了作用，因為在3月10日至3月11日之間，有2.35億美元的槓桿率長度被清算。

The panic selling drove ETH to a low of $1,744, its lowest level since October 2023. However, several indicators suggest a potential recovery, as ETH derivatives and onchain metrics show resilience.

恐慌銷售將ETH驅動到1,744美元的最低水平，這是自2023年10月以來的最低水平。但是，由於ETH衍生物和OnChain指標表明彈性，有幾個指標表明潛在的恢復。

Ethereum L2 network grows

以太坊L2網絡增長

Ether is trading 60% below its $4,868 all-time high from November 2021. This decline is largely due to increased competition in the smart contract sector and waning demand for applications such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), gaming, collectibles, metaverse projects, social networks, and Web3 infrastructure.

Ether的交易價格低於2021年11月以來的4,868美元。這一下降在很大程度上是由於智能合同行業的競爭加劇，並且對應用程序的需求減輕了，例如不可殺死的代幣（NFTS），遊戲，收藏品，收藏品，元項目，社交網絡，社交網絡和Web3 Infrastrasture。

However, this perspective neglects a key factor. In late 2021, the average transaction fee exceeded $50, while activity on Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem was 97% lower than it is today.

但是，這種觀點忽略了一個關鍵因素。在2021年底，平均交易費用超過50美元，而以太坊2層生態系統的活動比今天低97％。

For context, a token swap on Ethereum’s base layer cost $1.70 on March 11 despite the number of daily average operations per second growing, highlighting notable progress in network efficiency.

在上下文中，儘管以太坊的基礎層的代幣交換在3月11日的價格為$ 1.70，儘管每天的日常工作數量增加，這突出了網絡效率的顯著進步。

Ethereum layer-2 daily average operations per second. Source: L2beat

以太坊2層每日平均操作每秒。資料來源：L2Beat

Even if bots generate 80% of layer-2 transactions, the remaining 20% of activity on Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, ZKsync, and Blast is still roughly three times higher than Ethereum’s base layer. Still, critics have a valid point: despite the surge in network activity, validators are now earning considerably less compared to late 2021.

即使機器人產生了80％的第2層交易，其餘的20％的活動在基礎，仲裁，樂觀，ZKSYNC和BLAST上仍比以太坊的基礎層高三倍。儘管如此，批評家仍然有一個有效的觀點：儘管網絡活動激增，但與2021年末相比，驗證者現在的收入要少得多。

Ethereum regains DEX top-spot, TVL grows

以太坊恢復了DEX頂部，TVL成長

Institional investors from traditional finance have preferred Bitcoin over the last year, but Ethereum is quickly catching up.

在過去的一年中，來自傳統金融的工具投資者更喜歡比特幣，但是​​以太坊迅速追趕。

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency is also heating up with exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as several firms are applying for the product to be listed on major stock exchanges. So far, only Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust trades publicly in the U.S.

全球第二大加密貨幣也正在用交易所交易的資金（ETF）加熱，因為幾家公司正在申請該產品在主要證券交易所上市。到目前為止，只有灰度的以太坊信託在美國公開交易

As of March 10, there are $8.9 billion in spot ETF assets under management (AUM) for Bitcoin and Ether, with no Solana or Cardano products yet approved. This first-mover advantage for the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, which began over-the-counter trading in June 2019, is a significant factor.

截至3月10日，有89億美元的現貨ETF資產（AUM）用於比特幣和以太，沒有Solana或Cardano產品尚未獲得批准。灰度以太坊信託基金會的第一步優勢是從2019年6月開始進行非處方交易的，這是一個重要因素。

Moreover, Ethereum smart contract deposits, measured by total value locked (TVL), reached their highest level since July 2022 in ETH terms on March 11, marking a 10% increase over the past two weeks.

此外，通過總價值鎖定（TVL）衡量的以太坊智能合同存款在3月11日以ETH的限制以來達到了自2022年7月以來的最高水平，在過去兩周中增長了10％。

Related: The strategic crypto reserve will fuel ecosystem growth

相關：戰略加密儲備將推動生態系統增長

Ethereum network TVL, ETH. Source: DefiLlama

以太坊網絡TVL，ETH。資料來源：Defillama

At 24 million ETH, Ethereum’s TVL has been driven by the growth of liquid staking, lending, yield farming, and real-world asset tokenization. The network recently reclaimed its leading position in decentralized exchange volumes, reaching $20.5 billion over seven days and surpassing Solana’s $13.9 billion, according to DefiLlama data.

Ethereum的TVL在2400萬ETH上是由液體蒸發，貸款，產量養殖和現實世界中的代幣化的增長所驅動的。根據Defillama的數據，該網絡最近在分散的交換量中收回了領先地位，在7天內達到了205億美元，並超過了Solana的139億美元。

This provides a bullish outlook for ETH’s price, driven by layer-2 transactions nearing all-time highs, reclaiming of the top spot in DEX volume, and rising TVL deposits.

這為ETH的價格提供了看漲的前景，這是由於第2層交易的驅動，接近歷史最高點，在DEX量中收回了最高點以及TVL押金的上升。

Ultimately, Ether’s trend reversal remains highly dependent on macroeconomic improvements, but once stabilized, ETH is well-positioned to regain $2,500

最終，以太趨勢的逆轉仍然高度依賴宏觀經濟的改進，但是一旦穩定，ETH就可以很好地重新獲得2,500美元