ETH/BTC 远期期限结构陷入现货溢价，表明市场预计山寨币在未来几个月将表现不佳

ole（除非另有说明，所有时间均为东部时间）

Markets: Crypto markets turned sharply defensive on Thursday, with bitcoin’s 24-hour losses reaching 5% amid a broader risk-off session in traditional markets.

市场：加密货币市场周四急剧转向防御性，在传统市场广泛的避险交易中，比特币 24 小时跌幅达到 5%。

The session’s theme was largely set by a batch of U.S. economic data, which showed growth at services providers picked up in December, with prices jumping to the highest levels since 2023. The upbeat activity numbers, coupled with the sticky inflation readings, are likely sparking concerns about the Federal Reserve pausing its rate cuts.

本场会议的主题很大程度上是由一批美国经济数据决定的，这些数据显示服务提供商的增长在 12 月有所回升，价格跃升至 2023 年以来的最高水平。乐观的活动数据，加上粘性的通胀数据，可能会引发经济增长。对美联储暂停降息的担忧。

Traders are now pricing in a less-than-50% probability of a March rate cut, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. The next rate cut is not seen happening before June, according to the market. This is particularly bearish for ether, which is touted as an internet bond, offering a fixed-income like yield through staking rewards.

CME 的 FedWatch 工具显示，交易员目前预计 3 月份降息的可能性低于 50%。据市场预测，下一次降息不会在六月之前发生。这对于以太坊来说尤其利空，以太坊被誉为一种互联网债券，通过质押奖励提供类似收益率的固定收益。

Unsurprisingly, a major momentum study called the “Guppy multiple moving average indicator” is about to flip bearish for ETH. Here’s how to use it.

不出所料，一项名为“顾比多重移动平均线指标”的主要动量研究即将转为看跌 ETH。以下是如何使用它。

Elsewhere, the Deribit exchange’s ETH/BTC forward term structure has slipped into backwardation, according to data tracked by crypto financial platform BloFin. It means that some of the sharpest minds in the derivatives market are anticipating that ETH and other altcoins will underperform in the coming months.

在其他地方，根据加密金融平台 BloFin 跟踪的数据，Deribit 交易所的 ETH/BTC 远期期限结构已陷入现货溢价。这意味着衍生品市场中一些最敏锐的头脑预计 ETH 和其他山寨币在未来几个月将表现不佳。

The backwardation structure is better than what we saw before the U.S. election, but it still leaves investors feeling uncertain. BloFin Academy put it best: “it merely suggests that the situation may not get worse.”

现货溢价结构比我们在美国大选前看到的要好，但仍然让投资者感到不确定。 BloFin Academy 说得最好：“这只是表明情况可能不会变得更糟。”

A backwardation structure is usually seen when the market anticipates an asset’s price to rise in the future, prompting traders to pay a premium for futures at longer maturities. In this case, some traders might be expecting bitcoin to outperform ether in the coming months.

当市场预计未来资产价格上涨时，通常会出现现货溢价结构，从而促使交易者为期限较长的期货支付溢价。在这种情况下，一些交易者可能预计比特币在未来几个月的表现将优于以太币。

Markets: Crypto markets turned sharply defensive on Thursday, with bitcoin’s 24-赫尔小时 losses reaching 5%, as a broader risk-off session hit traditional markets.

市场：加密货币市场周四急剧转向防御性，比特币 24 小时跌幅达到 5%，因为更广泛的避险交易时段冲击了传统市场。

The session’s theme was largely set by a batch of U.S. economic data, which showed growth at services providers picked up in December, with prices jumping to the highest levels since 2023. The upbeat activity numbers, coupled with the sticky inflation readings, are likely sparking concerns about the Federal Reserve pausing its rate cuts.

本场会议的主题很大程度上是由一系列美国经济数据决定的，这些数据显示服务提供商的增长在 12 月有所回升，价格跃升至 2023 年以来的最高水平。乐观的活动数据，加上粘性的通胀数据，可能会引发经济增长。对美联储暂停降息的担忧。

Traders are now pricing in a less-than-50% probability of a March rate cut, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. The next rate cut is not seen happening before June, according to the market. This is particularly bearish for ether, which is touted as an internet bond, offering a fixed-income like yield through staking rewards.

CME 的 FedWatch 工具显示，交易员目前预计 3 月份降息的可能性低于 50%。据市场预测，下一次降息不会在六月之前发生。这对于以太坊来说尤其利空，以太坊被誉为一种互联网债券，通过质押奖励提供类似收益率的固定收益。

Unsurprisingly, a major momentum study called the “Guppy multiple moving average indicator” is about to flip bearish for ETH. Here’s how to use it.

不出所料，一项名为“顾比多重移动平均线指标”的主要动量研究即将转为看跌 ETH。以下是如何使用它。

Elsewhere, the Deribit exchange’s ETH/BTC forward term structure has slipped into backwardation, according to data tracked by crypto financial platform BloFin. It means that some of the sharpest minds in the derivatives market are anticipating that ETH and other altcoins will underperform in the coming months.

在其他地方，根据加密金融平台 BloFin 跟踪的数据，Deribit 交易所的 ETH/BTC 远期期限结构已陷入现货溢价。这意味着衍生品市场中一些最敏锐的头脑预计 ETH 和其他山寨币在未来几个月将表现不佳。

The backwardation structure is better than what we saw before the U.S. election, but it still leaves investors feeling uncertain. BloFin Academy put it best: “it merely suggests that the situation may not get worse.”

现货溢价结构比我们在美国大选前看到的要好，但仍然让投资者感到不确定。 BloFin Academy 说得最好：“这只是表明情况可能不会变得更糟。”

A backwardation structure is usually seen when the market anticipates an asset’s price to rise in the future, prompting traders to pay a premium for futures at longer maturities. In this case, some traders might be expecting bitcoin to outperform ether in the coming months.

当市场预计未来资产价格上涨时，通常会出现现货溢价结构，从而促使交易者为期限较长的期货支付溢价。在这种情况下，一些交易者可能预计比特币在未来几个月的表现将优于以太币。