ETH/BTC 遠期期限結構陷入現貨溢價，顯示市場預計山寨幣在未來幾個月將表現不佳

ole（除非另有說明，所有時間均為東部時間）

Markets: Crypto markets turned sharply defensive on Thursday, with bitcoin’s 24-hour losses reaching 5% amid a broader risk-off session in traditional markets.

市場：加密貨幣市場週四急劇轉向防禦性，在傳統市場廣泛的避險交易中，比特幣 24 小時跌幅達到 5%。

The session’s theme was largely set by a batch of U.S. economic data, which showed growth at services providers picked up in December, with prices jumping to the highest levels since 2023. The upbeat activity numbers, coupled with the sticky inflation readings, are likely sparking concerns about the Federal Reserve pausing its rate cuts.

本場會議的主題很大程度上是由一批美國經濟數據決定的，這些數據顯示服務提供者的成長在12 月有所回升，價格躍升至2023 年以來的最高水平。上黏性的通膨數據，可能會引發經濟成長。

Traders are now pricing in a less-than-50% probability of a March rate cut, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. The next rate cut is not seen happening before June, according to the market. This is particularly bearish for ether, which is touted as an internet bond, offering a fixed-income like yield through staking rewards.

CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示，交易員目前預計 3 月降息的可能性低於 50%。根據市場預測，下一次降息不會在六月之前發生。這對以太坊來說尤其利空，以太坊被譽為一種網路債券，透過質押獎勵提供類似收益率的固定收益。

Unsurprisingly, a major momentum study called the “Guppy multiple moving average indicator” is about to flip bearish for ETH. Here’s how to use it.

不出所料，一項名為「顧比多重移動平均線指標」的主要動量研究即將轉為看跌 ETH。以下是如何使用它。

Elsewhere, the Deribit exchange’s ETH/BTC forward term structure has slipped into backwardation, according to data tracked by crypto financial platform BloFin. It means that some of the sharpest minds in the derivatives market are anticipating that ETH and other altcoins will underperform in the coming months.

在其他地方，根據加密金融平台 BloFin 追蹤的數據，Deribit 交易所的 ETH/BTC 遠期期限結構已陷入現貨溢價。這意味著衍生性商品市場中一些最敏銳的頭腦預計 ETH 和其他山寨幣在未來幾個月將表現不佳。

The backwardation structure is better than what we saw before the U.S. election, but it still leaves investors feeling uncertain. BloFin Academy put it best: “it merely suggests that the situation may not get worse.”

現貨溢價結構比我們在美國大選前看到的要好，但仍然讓投資者感到不確定。 BloFin Academy 說得最好：“這只是表明情況可能不會變得更糟。”

A backwardation structure is usually seen when the market anticipates an asset’s price to rise in the future, prompting traders to pay a premium for futures at longer maturities. In this case, some traders might be expecting bitcoin to outperform ether in the coming months.

當市場預期未來資產價格上漲時，通常會出現現貨溢價結構，促使交易者為期限較長的期貨支付溢價。在這種情況下，一些交易員可能會預期比特幣在未來幾個月的表現將優於以太幣。

Markets: Crypto markets turned sharply defensive on Thursday, with bitcoin’s 24-赫尔小时 losses reaching 5%, as a broader risk-off session hit traditional markets.

市場：加密貨幣市場週四急劇轉向防禦性，比特幣 24 小時跌幅達到 5%，因為更廣泛的避險交易時段衝擊了傳統市場。

The session’s theme was largely set by a batch of U.S. economic data, which showed growth at services providers picked up in December, with prices jumping to the highest levels since 2023. The upbeat activity numbers, coupled with the sticky inflation readings, are likely sparking concerns about the Federal Reserve pausing its rate cuts.

本場會議的主題很大程度上是由一批美國經濟數據決定的，這些數據顯示服務提供者的成長在12 月有所回升，價格躍升至2023 年以來的最高水平。上黏性的通膨數據，可能會引發經濟成長。

Traders are now pricing in a less-than-50% probability of a March rate cut, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. The next rate cut is not seen happening before June, according to the market. This is particularly bearish for ether, which is touted as an internet bond, offering a fixed-income like yield through staking rewards.

CME 的 FedWatch 工具顯示，交易員目前預計 3 月降息的可能性低於 50%。根據市場預測，下一次降息不會在六月之前發生。這對以太坊來說尤其利空，以太坊被譽為一種網路債券，透過質押獎勵提供類似收益率的固定收益。

Unsurprisingly, a major momentum study called the “Guppy multiple moving average indicator” is about to flip bearish for ETH. Here’s how to use it.

不出所料，一項名為「顧比多重移動平均線指標」的主要動量研究即將轉為看跌 ETH。以下是如何使用它。

Elsewhere, the Deribit exchange’s ETH/BTC forward term structure has slipped into backwardation, according to data tracked by crypto financial platform BloFin. It means that some of the sharpest minds in the derivatives market are anticipating that ETH and other altcoins will underperform in the coming months.

在其他地方，根據加密金融平台 BloFin 追蹤的數據，Deribit 交易所的 ETH/BTC 遠期期限結構已陷入現貨溢價。這意味著衍生性商品市場中一些最敏銳的頭腦預計 ETH 和其他山寨幣在未來幾個月將表現不佳。

The backwardation structure is better than what we saw before the U.S. election, but it still leaves investors feeling uncertain. BloFin Academy put it best: “it merely suggests that the situation may not get worse.”

現貨溢價結構比我們在美國大選前看到的要好，但仍然讓投資者感到不確定。 BloFin Academy 說得最好：“這只是表明情況可能不會變得更糟。”

A backwardation structure is usually seen when the market anticipates an asset’s price to rise in the future, prompting traders to pay a premium for futures at longer maturities. In this case, some traders might be expecting bitcoin to outperform ether in the coming months.

當市場預期未來資產價格上漲時，通常會出現現貨溢價結構，促使交易者為期限較長的期貨支付溢價。在這種情況下，一些交易者可能會預期比特幣在未來幾個月的表現將優於以太幣。