特朗普的关税可能引发一场新的全球贸易战，并派遣比特币

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次成为头条新闻，他的最新提议向主要贸易伙伴征收大量关税。

U.S. President Donald Trump's latest proposals to impose massive tariffs on major trade partners are making headlines once more. While his supporters hail this move as a strong measure to protect American industries, economists are sounding the alarm bells, comparing it to one of the gravest economic mistakes of the 20th century—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对主要贸易伙伴征收大量关税的最新提议再次成为头条新闻。尽管他的支持者称呼这一举动是保护美国行业的一项强大措施，但经济学家正在响起警钟，将其与20世纪最严重的经济错误之一（1930年代的Smoot-Hawley关税法案）进行了比较。

The consequences of these tariffs will not just be felt in traditional markets; they could also shake up the cryptocurrency space, especially Bitcoin, which has already shown signs of volatility in response to economic uncertainty.

这些关税的后果不仅会在传统市场中感受到；他们还可以改变加密货币空间，尤其是比特币，这已经显示出响应经济不确定性的迹象。

A Return to the 1930s: Massive Tariffs and Their Impact

返回1930年代：大量关税及其影响

Back in 1930, the U.S. government passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, a policy designed to shield American businesses by imposing hefty taxes on imported goods. However, instead of boosting the economy, it triggered a global trade war. Countries retaliated with their own tariffs, disrupting international trade and deepening the Great Depression.

早在1930年，美国政府就通过了《 Smoot-Hawley关税法》，该法案旨在通过对进口商品征收大量税来掩盖美国企业。但是，它没有促进经济，而是引发了全球贸易战。国家以自己的关税进行报复，破坏了国际贸易并加深了大萧条。

Today, Trump's plan involves imposing high tariffs on goods from China, the European Union, Japan, and other nations. Some tariffs are as high as 34%, and if fully implemented, the average U.S. tariff rate could surpass 25%—a level higher than during the 1930s trade war. The aim is to decrease reliance on foreign manufacturing and provide American businesses with a competitive advantage.

今天，特朗普的计划涉及对中国，欧盟，日本和其他国家的商品征收高关税。一些关税高达34％，如果完全实施，美国的平均关税利率可能会超过25％，高于1930年代贸易战期间的水平。目的是减少对外国制造业的依赖，并为美国企业带来竞争优势。

However, the risk is that these tariffs will lead to increased prices and inflation, ultimately burdening American consumers. Moreover, a potential global trade war could injure not only traditional industries but also digital assets like Bitcoin.

但是，风险是这些关税将导致价格上涨和通货膨胀，最终导致美国消费者负担。此外，潜在的全球贸易战不仅会伤害传统行业，而且会伤害像比特币这样的数字资产。

Financial Markets React: Tariffs Heat Up Global Trade

金融市场反应：关税加剧了全球贸易

The financial world is closely monitoring the situation as investors fear that retaliatory tariffs from other countries will disrupt global supply chains and increase costs for U.S. consumers.

由于投资者担心其他国家的报复性关税会破坏全球供应链并增加美国消费者的成本，因此金融界正在密切监视局势。

Cryptocurrencies, often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty, are also reacting to the unfolding scenario. Bitcoin's price recently dropped to around $91,530, erasing gains from the past few months. Some analysts believe the worst isn't over yet, predicting a potential fall to $75,000 before any recovery.

加密货币通常被视为对经济不确定性的对冲，也对不断发展的情况做出了反应。比特币的价格最近下跌至91,530美元左右，从过去的几个月中删除了收益。一些分析师认为，最糟糕的情况还没有结束，预测在恢复之前的潜力下降到75,000美元。

Despite Bitcoin's reputation as "digital gold," its correlation with traditional markets has risen in recent years. This means that if global markets experience turbulence due to the tariffs, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could see further declines rather than serving as safe havens.

尽管比特币的声誉是“数字黄金”，但近年来它与传统市场的相关性却有所增加。这意味着，如果全球市场由于关税而遭受动荡，比特币和其他加密货币可能会看到进一步的下降，而不是作为避风港。

Is Bitcoin Still an Effective Hedge Against Economic Turmoil?

比特币仍然是针对经济动荡的有效树篱吗？

Bitcoin's appeal has always been its independence from government-controlled financial systems. Many investors turn to it during times of uncertainty, hoping it will retain value while traditional assets are affected.

比特币的吸引力一直是它与政府控制的金融体系的独立性。许多投资者在不确定性时期转向它，希望它能在传统资产受到影响的同时保留价值。

However, the recent price downturn suggests that Bitcoin is no longer immune to economic shifts caused by trade policies and market reactions. Some experts, like former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, remain optimistic, arguing that after a short-term dip, Bitcoin could rebound as investors seek alternative assets.

但是，最近的价格下跌表明，比特币不再免疫贸易政策和市场反应引起的经济转变。一些专家，例如前Bitmex首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），仍然乐观，认为在短期倾斜之后，比特币可以反弹，因为投资者寻求替代资产。

On the other hand, others warn that increasing regulations and scrutiny might limit Bitcoin's ability to serve as a true "safe haven." As the dust settles, the full impact of Trump's tariff policies and the ensuing global reactions remain to be seen.

另一方面，其他人警告说，日益增长的法规和审查可能会限制比特币作为真正的“避风港”的能力。随着尘埃落定，特朗普的关税政策以及随之而来的全球反应的全部影响仍有待观察。

The implications for the cryptocurrency market will depend on how these macroeconomic shifts play out and how they intersect with the technical and fundamental trends in the Bitcoin market.

对加密货币市场的影响将取决于这些宏观经济转变如何发挥作用，以及它们如何与比特币市场的技术和基本趋势相交。