特朗普的關稅可能引發一場新的全球貿易戰，並派遣比特幣

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次成為頭條新聞，他的最新提議向主要貿易夥伴徵收大量關稅。

U.S. President Donald Trump's latest proposals to impose massive tariffs on major trade partners are making headlines once more. While his supporters hail this move as a strong measure to protect American industries, economists are sounding the alarm bells, comparing it to one of the gravest economic mistakes of the 20th century—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.

美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對主要貿易夥伴徵收大量關稅的最新提議再次成為頭條新聞。儘管他的支持者稱呼這一舉動是保護美國行業的一項強大措施，但經濟學家正在響起警鐘，將其與20世紀最嚴重的經濟錯誤之一（1930年代的Smoot-Hawley關稅法案）進行了比較。

The consequences of these tariffs will not just be felt in traditional markets; they could also shake up the cryptocurrency space, especially Bitcoin, which has already shown signs of volatility in response to economic uncertainty.

這些關稅的後果不僅會在傳統市場中感受到；他們還可以改變加密貨幣空間，尤其是比特幣，這已經顯示出響應經濟不確定性的跡象。

A Return to the 1930s: Massive Tariffs and Their Impact

返回1930年代：大量關稅及其影響

Back in 1930, the U.S. government passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, a policy designed to shield American businesses by imposing hefty taxes on imported goods. However, instead of boosting the economy, it triggered a global trade war. Countries retaliated with their own tariffs, disrupting international trade and deepening the Great Depression.

早在1930年，美國政府就通過了《 Smoot-Hawley關稅法》，該法案旨在通過對進口商品徵收大量稅來掩蓋美國企業。但是，它沒有促進經濟，而是引發了全球貿易戰。國家以自己的關稅進行報復，破壞了國際貿易並加深了大蕭條。

Today, Trump's plan involves imposing high tariffs on goods from China, the European Union, Japan, and other nations. Some tariffs are as high as 34%, and if fully implemented, the average U.S. tariff rate could surpass 25%—a level higher than during the 1930s trade war. The aim is to decrease reliance on foreign manufacturing and provide American businesses with a competitive advantage.

今天，特朗普的計劃涉及對中國，歐盟，日本和其他國家的商品徵收高關稅。一些關稅高達34％，如果完全實施，美國的平均關稅利率可能會超過25％，高於1930年代貿易戰期間的水平。目的是減少對外國製造業的依賴，並為美國企業帶來競爭優勢。

However, the risk is that these tariffs will lead to increased prices and inflation, ultimately burdening American consumers. Moreover, a potential global trade war could injure not only traditional industries but also digital assets like Bitcoin.

但是，風險是這些關稅將導致價格上漲和通貨膨脹，最終導緻美國消費者負擔。此外，潛在的全球貿易戰不僅會傷害傳統行業，而且會傷害像比特幣這樣的數字資產。

Financial Markets React: Tariffs Heat Up Global Trade

金融市場反應：關稅加劇了全球貿易

The financial world is closely monitoring the situation as investors fear that retaliatory tariffs from other countries will disrupt global supply chains and increase costs for U.S. consumers.

由於投資者擔心其他國家的報復性關稅會破壞全球供應鏈並增加美國消費者的成本，因此金融界正在密切監視局勢。

Cryptocurrencies, often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty, are also reacting to the unfolding scenario. Bitcoin's price recently dropped to around $91,530, erasing gains from the past few months. Some analysts believe the worst isn't over yet, predicting a potential fall to $75,000 before any recovery.

加密貨幣通常被視為對經濟不確定性的對沖，也對不斷發展的情況做出了反應。比特幣的價格最近下跌至91,530美元左右，從過去的幾個月中刪除了收益。一些分析師認為，最糟糕的情況還沒有結束，預測在恢復之前的潛力下降到75,000美元。

Despite Bitcoin's reputation as "digital gold," its correlation with traditional markets has risen in recent years. This means that if global markets experience turbulence due to the tariffs, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could see further declines rather than serving as safe havens.

儘管比特幣的聲譽是“數字黃金”，但近年來它與傳統市場的相關性卻有所增加。這意味著，如果全球市場由於關稅而遭受動盪，比特幣和其他加密貨幣可能會看到進一步的下降，而不是作為避風港。

Is Bitcoin Still an Effective Hedge Against Economic Turmoil?

比特幣仍然是針對經濟動蕩的有效樹籬嗎？

Bitcoin's appeal has always been its independence from government-controlled financial systems. Many investors turn to it during times of uncertainty, hoping it will retain value while traditional assets are affected.

比特幣的吸引力一直是它與政府控制的金融體系的獨立性。許多投資者在不確定性時期轉向它，希望它能在傳統資產受到影響的同時保留價值。

However, the recent price downturn suggests that Bitcoin is no longer immune to economic shifts caused by trade policies and market reactions. Some experts, like former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, remain optimistic, arguing that after a short-term dip, Bitcoin could rebound as investors seek alternative assets.

但是，最近的價格下跌表明，比特幣不再免疫貿易政策和市場反應引起的經濟轉變。一些專家，例如前Bitmex首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），仍然樂觀，認為在短期傾斜之後，比特幣可以反彈，因為投資者尋求替代資產。

On the other hand, others warn that increasing regulations and scrutiny might limit Bitcoin's ability to serve as a true "safe haven." As the dust settles, the full impact of Trump's tariff policies and the ensuing global reactions remain to be seen.

另一方面，其他人警告說，日益增長的法規和審查可能會限制比特幣作為真正的“避風港”的能力。隨著塵埃落定，特朗普的關稅政策以及隨之而來的全球反應的全部影響仍有待觀察。

The implications for the cryptocurrency market will depend on how these macroeconomic shifts play out and how they intersect with the technical and fundamental trends in the Bitcoin market.

對加密貨幣市場的影響將取決於這些宏觀經濟轉變如何發揮作用，以及它們如何與比特幣市場的技術和基本趨勢相交。