2020 年美国大选：特朗普与哈里斯的冲突如何影响比特币和股市

美国大选临近，市场分析师正在密切关注加密货币和股市的潜在影响。

The U.S. presidential elections are just around the corner, and market analysts are keeping a close eye on the potential repercussions for the cryptocurrency and stock markets. In a recent analysis, cryptocurrency expert Jason Pizzino delves into how the electoral clash between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could shape financial market dynamics, particularly for Bitcoin.

美国总统选举即将到来，市场分析师正在密切关注加密货币和股市的潜在影响。在最近的一项分析中，加密货币专家 Jason Pizzino 深入研究了唐纳德·特朗普和卡马拉·哈里斯之间的选举冲突如何影响金融市场动态，特别是比特币。

Pizzino emphasizes that the race is tighter than many expect, with a clear victory for Trump seeming unlikely. This uncertainty is likely to result in significant volatility in the markets following the election results. As the countdown continues, market participants are bracing for potential swings in both the stock and cryptocurrency sectors, fueling speculation about which candidate may have a more favorable impact on market sentiment.

皮齐诺强调，竞选比许多人预期的更加激烈，特朗普似乎不太可能取得明显胜利。这种不确定性可能会导致选举结果后市场出现大幅波动。随着倒计时的继续，市场参与者正在为股票和加密货币领域的潜在波动做好准备，这引发了对哪位候选人可能对市场情绪产生更有利影响的猜测。

Pizzino outlines two primary scenarios based on who secures the presidency:

皮齐诺根据谁获得总统职位概述了两种主要情况：

If Trump wins a second term, market analysts anticipate a continuation of the current trends, with no drastic shifts in sight. This scenario aligns with what Pizzino refers to as the “Winner's Curse” phase in an 18-year market cycle. During this period, market movements tend to be less dramatic compared to periods following election losses.

如果特朗普赢得第二个任期，市场分析师预计当前趋势将持续，不会出现剧烈转变。这种情况与 Pizzino 所说的 18 年市场周期中的“赢家诅咒”阶段相符。与选举失败后的时期相比，在此期间，市场波动往往不那么剧烈。

In the event of a Harris victory, market reactions could be more nuanced. Initially, markets may experience a downturn as a result of Trump's loss. However, following this initial setback, بازاررم cryptocurrency markets could experience a gradual recovery as Harris's policies unfold.

如果哈里斯获胜，市场反应可能会更加微妙。最初，市场可能会因特朗普落选而经历低迷。然而，在经历了最初的挫折之后，随着哈里斯政策的展开，加密货币市场可能会逐渐复苏。

Pizzino also notes that the current market cycle does not indicate significant changes at this time. He refers to what he calls the “Winner's Curse” phase in an 18-year market cycle, a period that typically signals heightened volatility and presents trading opportunities as market dynamics shift after decisive political outcomes.

皮齐诺还指出，当前的市场周期目前并未表明发生重大变化。他提到了 18 年市场周期中他所说的“赢家诅咒”阶段，这一阶段通常预示着波动性加剧，并在决定性政治结果后市场动态发生转变时提供交易机会。

Currently, Bitcoin is recovering from a recent price drop that saw it fall to approximately $67,500 after reaching $72,500. The cryptocurrency is now attempting to regain its footing, trading just below $70,500 and facing critical resistance around the $70,000 mark.

目前，比特币正在从最近的价格下跌中恢复过来，价格在达到 72,500 美元后跌至约 67,500 美元。该加密货币目前正试图重新站稳脚跟，交易价格略低于 70,500 美元，并在 70,000 美元大关附近面临关键阻力。

A recent breakout above a bearish trend line at $68,300 indicates potential bullish movement. If Bitcoin can maintain this momentum and break through the $70,000 resistance level, it may pave the way for further gains, targeting prices around $71,200 and possibly $72,500. However, if it fails to surpass this resistance, it could experience additional declines, with immediate support levels at $68,000 and key thresholds at $67,500 and $67,200.

最近突破看跌趋势线 68,300 美元表明潜在的看涨走势。如果比特币能够保持这种势头并突破 70,000 美元的阻力位，则可能为进一步上涨铺平道路，目标价格约为 71,200 美元，甚至可能达到 72,500 美元。然而，如果未能突破这一阻力位，则可能会进一步下跌，直接支撑位为 68,000 美元，关键门槛为 67,500 美元和 67,200 美元。

As the crypto market awaits the election results, traders and investors are keen to see how Bitcoin will respond. The potential for significant price movements hinges on the election outcome, with analysts predicting that either result could lead to new highs or further declines in the cryptocurrency market.

在加密货币市场等待选举结果之际，交易员和投资者都渴望看到比特币将如何反应。价格大幅波动的可能性取决于选举结果，分析师预测，任何一个结果都可能导致加密货币市场创下新高或进一步下跌。

In conclusion, the upcoming U.S. elections are poised to play a crucial role in shaping the future of both cryptocurrency and stock markets. With insights from analysts like Jason Pizzino, market participants are on high alert, ready to react to the election’s outcome. Whether a Trump victory might invigorate market confidence or a Harris win could initially dampen spirits yet lead to recovery, the results will have far-reaching implications for investors in Bitcoin and beyond.

总之，即将到来的美国大选将在塑造加密货币和股市的未来方面发挥至关重要的作用。根据杰森·皮齐诺（Jason Pizzino）等分析师的见解，市场参与者保持高度警惕，准备对选举结果做出反应。无论特朗普的胜利可能会提振市场信心，还是哈里斯的胜利可能会在最初打击士气，但最终导致复苏，结果都将对比特币及其他领域的投资者产生深远的影响。

As the election approaches, the big question remains: will the results propel Bitcoin to new heights? The answer lies just around the corner, as market participants prepare for what could be a pivotal moment in the financial landscape.

随着选举的临近，一个大问题仍然存在：选举结果是否会将比特币推向新的高度？随着市场参与者为金融格局的关键时刻做好准备，答案就在眼前。