比特币（BTC）价格预测：BTCUSD每周蜡烛看起来与黄金相似，逆转可能即将到来

自上周二触及历史高点 73,620 美元以来，比特币价格已连续五次出现红色日线蜡烛。

The price of Bitcoin has dropped by around 7% over the last five days, following five consecutive red daily candles on the chart. This decline is also evident on the weekly chart, which shows a major bearish weekly candle – a gravestone doji.

在图表上连续五个红色日线蜡烛之后，比特币的价格在过去五天内下跌了约 7%。这种下降在周线图上也很明显，周线图显示了主要看跌的周线蜡烛——墓碑十字线。

Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar noted the formation of this candle on his analysis, comparing it to the weekly candle on the gold chart. According to Kibar, such a candle formation can indicate a forthcoming reversal.

特许市场技术员 (CMT) Aksel Kibar 在他的分析中注意到了该蜡烛的形成，并将其与黄金图表上的每周蜡烛进行了比较。根据基巴尔的说法，这样的蜡烛形态可能预示着即将到来的逆转。

However, he added that this candle formation is not dependable as an individual candle. It is best to combine it with a following weak candle as a confirmation of trend reversal. The market narrative is that the bulls attempt to push to new highs over the session but the bears push the price action to near the open by the session close.

然而，他补充说，这种蜡烛形态作为单个蜡烛并不可靠。最好将其与随后的弱蜡烛结合起来，作为趋势反转的确认。市场的叙述是，多头试图在交易日内推升至新高，但空头在交易日收盘时将价格走势推至接近开盘价。

Bitcoin To Hit $75,000 By End Of November?

比特币到 11 月底将达到 75,000 美元？

In its latest investor note, Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital highlighted some interesting shifts in both the political prediction markets and the BTC derivatives market.

总部位于新加坡的加密货币交易公司 QCP Capital 在最新的投资者报告中强调了政治预测市场和 BTC 衍生品市场的一些有趣变化。

According to QCP, the odds on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket have moved closer to actual poll estimates, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a tight race.

据 QCP 称，去中心化预测市场 Polymarket 的赔率已经接近实际民意调查的估计，副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普陷入了一场激烈的竞争。

While Polymarket still favors Trump at 55%, this marks a decrease from 66% a week ago, indicating a narrowing margin that aligns more closely with mainstream polling data.

尽管 Polymarket 仍以 55% 的支持率支持特朗普，但这比一周前的 66% 有所下降，表明差距缩小，与主流民意调查数据更加吻合。

The firm also observed a cautious sentiment prevailing in the cryptocurrency market. They noted that the “sideways price action over the weekend” and a decrease in leveraged perpetual futures positioning—from $30 billion to $26 billion across exchanges—suggest that traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach. This pullback may be due to uncertainties surrounding macroeconomic factors or the upcoming election.

该公司还观察到加密货币市场普遍存在谨慎情绪。他们指出，“周末的横向价格走势”以及交易所杠杆永续期货头寸的减少（从 300 亿美元降至 260 亿美元）表明交易者正在采取观望态度。这种回调可能是由于宏观经济因素或即将到来的选举的不确定性造成的。

Despite the current market hesitancy, QCP sees potential for significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price. The firm questioned whether this is “the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs.”

尽管目前市场犹豫不决，但 QCP 认为比特币价格有大幅上涨的潜力。该公司质疑这是否是“突破数月区间并推向历史新高之前的平静”。

Supporting this outlook, QCP observed an increase in topside positioning with substantial buying of end-November $75,000 call options since last Friday. This surge in call options at that strike price suggests that traders are positioning for a substantial rally by the end of November.

QCP 观察到自上周五以来大量买入 11 月底 75,000 美元看涨期权，从而支持了这一前景。执行价格看涨期权的激增表明，交易员正在为 11 月底大幅上涨做好准备。

The calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs? Topside positioning has been increasing, with notably large buying of end-November $75,000 calls since last Friday.

突破数月区间并推向历史高点之前的平静？自上周五以来，上方头寸一直在增加，尤其是 11 月底 75,000 美元看涨期权的大量买盘。

Moreover, the firm highlighted increased activity in options tied to the election date. “Election-date options positions are also rising,” QCP noted, with Friday implied volatility exceeding 87%, even as realized volatility remains at 40%. The elevated implied volatility indicates that options traders are anticipating significant price swings around the election period.

此外，该公司强调与选举日期相关的期权活动有所增加。 QCP 指出，“选举日期权头寸也在上升”，周五隐含波动率超过 87%，而实际波动率仍保持在 40%。隐含波动率升高表明期权交易者预计选举期间价格将出现大幅波动。

Looking ahead, QCP Capital expects Bitcoin’s spot price to remain range-bound until the US election results provide more clarity. The firm stated that they “expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week,” adding that “a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.”

展望未来，QCP Capital 预计比特币现货价格将保持区间波动，直到美国大选结果更加清晰。该公司表示，他们“预计现货价格将在这个范围内波动，直到我们本周对选举结果更加清楚”，并补充说，“特朗普获胜可能会导致下意识反应走高，如果卡马拉获胜，反之亦然。” ”

At press time, BTC traded at $68,852.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 68,852 美元。