比特幣（BTC）價格預測：BTCUSD每週蠟燭看起來與黃金相似，逆轉可能即將到來

自上週二觸及歷史高點 73,620 美元以來，比特幣價格已連續五次出現紅色日線蠟燭。

The price of Bitcoin has dropped by around 7% over the last five days, following five consecutive red daily candles on the chart. This decline is also evident on the weekly chart, which shows a major bearish weekly candle – a gravestone doji.

在圖表上連續五個紅色日線蠟燭之後，比特幣的價格在過去五天內下跌了約 7%。這種下降在周線圖上也很明顯，週線圖顯示了主要看跌的周線蠟燭——墓碑十字線。

Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar noted the formation of this candle on his analysis, comparing it to the weekly candle on the gold chart. According to Kibar, such a candle formation can indicate a forthcoming reversal.

特許市場技術員 (CMT) Aksel Kibar 在他的分析中註意到了該蠟燭的形成，並將其與黃金圖表上的每週蠟燭進行了比較。根據基巴爾的說法，這樣的蠟燭形態可能預示著即將到來的逆轉。

However, he added that this candle formation is not dependable as an individual candle. It is best to combine it with a following weak candle as a confirmation of trend reversal. The market narrative is that the bulls attempt to push to new highs over the session but the bears push the price action to near the open by the session close.

然而，他補充說，這種蠟燭形態作為單一蠟燭並不可靠。最好將其與隨後的弱蠟燭結合起來，作為趨勢反轉的確認。市場的敘述是，多頭試圖在交易日內推升至新高，但空頭在交易日收盤時將價格走勢推至接近開盤價。

Bitcoin To Hit $75,000 By End Of November?

比特幣到 11 月底將達到 75,000 美元？

In its latest investor note, Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital highlighted some interesting shifts in both the political prediction markets and the BTC derivatives market.

總部位於新加坡的加密貨幣交易公司 QCP Capital 在最新的投資者報告中強調了政治預測市場和 BTC 衍生性商品市場的一些有趣變化。

According to QCP, the odds on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket have moved closer to actual poll estimates, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a tight race.

據 QCP 稱，去中心化預測市場 Polymarket 的賠率已經接近實際民意調查的估計，副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯和前總統唐納德·特朗普陷入了一場激烈的競爭。

While Polymarket still favors Trump at 55%, this marks a decrease from 66% a week ago, indicating a narrowing margin that aligns more closely with mainstream polling data.

儘管 Polymarket 仍以 55% 的支持率支持川普，但這比一週前的 66% 有所下降，顯示差距縮小，與主流民調數據更加吻合。

The firm also observed a cautious sentiment prevailing in the cryptocurrency market. They noted that the “sideways price action over the weekend” and a decrease in leveraged perpetual futures positioning—from $30 billion to $26 billion across exchanges—suggest that traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach. This pullback may be due to uncertainties surrounding macroeconomic factors or the upcoming election.

該公司也觀察到加密貨幣市場普遍存在謹慎情緒。他們指出，「週末的橫向價格走勢」以及交易所槓桿永續期貨部位的減少（從 300 億美元降至 260 億美元）表明交易者正在採取觀望態度。這種回調可能是由於宏觀經濟因素或即將到來的選舉的不確定性所造成的。

Despite the current market hesitancy, QCP sees potential for significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price. The firm questioned whether this is “the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs.”

儘管目前市場猶豫不決，但 QCP 認為比特幣價格有大幅上漲的潛力。該公司質疑這是否是「突破數月區間並推向歷史新高之前的平靜」。

Supporting this outlook, QCP observed an increase in topside positioning with substantial buying of end-November $75,000 call options since last Friday. This surge in call options at that strike price suggests that traders are positioning for a substantial rally by the end of November.

QCP 觀察到自上週五以來大量買入 11 月底 75,000 美元看漲期權，從而支持了這一前景。執行價格看漲期權的激增表明，交易者正在為 11 月底大幅上漲做好準備。

The calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs? Topside positioning has been increasing, with notably large buying of end-November $75,000 calls since last Friday.

突破數月區間並推向歷史高點之前的平靜？自上週五以來，上方頭寸一直在增加，尤其是 11 月底 75,000 美元看漲期權的大量買盤。

Moreover, the firm highlighted increased activity in options tied to the election date. “Election-date options positions are also rising,” QCP noted, with Friday implied volatility exceeding 87%, even as realized volatility remains at 40%. The elevated implied volatility indicates that options traders are anticipating significant price swings around the election period.

此外，該公司強調與選舉日期相關的選擇權活動增加。 QCP 指出，“選舉日期權部位也在上升”，週五隱含波動率超過 87%，而實際波動率仍保持在 40%。隱含波動率升高表示選擇權交易者預計選舉期間價格將大幅波動。

Looking ahead, QCP Capital expects Bitcoin’s spot price to remain range-bound until the US election results provide more clarity. The firm stated that they “expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week,” adding that “a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.”

展望未來，QCP Capital 預計比特幣現貨價格將維持區間波動，直到美國大選結果更加清晰。該公司表示，他們“預計現貨價格將在這個範圍內波動，直到我們本週對選舉結果更加清楚”，並補充說，“川普獲勝可能會導致下意識反應走高，如果卡馬拉獲勝，反之亦然。

At press time, BTC traded at $68,852.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 68,852 美元。