美國大選和 FOMC 決策臨近時的比特幣 (BTC)、Popcat (POPCAT)、Solana (SOL) 和 Mantra (OM) 價格分析

週二，隨著投資者為美國大選和聯準會利率決定做好準備，加密貨幣市場一片紅海。

Investors in the cryptocurrency market prepared for the US election and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Tuesday, leading to a sea of red across the board.

加密貨幣市場投資者週二為美國大選和聯準會利率決定做準備，導致全線紅海。

Bitcoin dropped to $67,900, while Solana (SOL), Popcat (POPCAT), and Mantra (OM) fell to $158, $1.2, and $1.28, respectively.

比特幣跌至 67,900 美元，而 Solana (SOL)、Popcat (POPCAT) 和 Mantra (OM) 分別跌至 158 美元、1.2 美元和 1.28 美元。

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These were significant reversals considering that Bitcoin peaked at $73,500, just shy of the all-time high of $73,800. Likewise, SOL topped out at $183, indicating a local correction after a 13% decline. POPCAT and OM have also corrected, showing double-digit declines from their highest levels this year.

考慮到比特幣的峰值為 73,500 美元，距離歷史高點 73,800 美元僅差一點，這些都是重大逆轉。同樣，SOL 最高觸及 183 美元，表明在下跌 13% 後出現局部調整。 POPCAT 和 OM 也出現了調整，較今年的最高水準出現了兩位數的下降。

Bitcoin and other altcoins have experienced a harsh reversal in recent days as fear gripped the market.

由於恐懼籠罩著市場，比特幣和其他山寨幣最近幾天經歷了嚴重的逆轉。

Data from CoinMarketCap showed that the crypto fear and greed index continued to decline, reaching 50 on Tuesday morning. This marked a significant drop from last week when the index was in the greed zone at 66.

CoinMarketCap 的數據顯示，加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數持續下降，週二上午達到 50。這標誌著該指數較上週處於貪婪區域 66 的大幅下跌。

The fear stems from the uncertainty surrounding the American election, which is set to take place on Tuesday, November 5.

這種擔憂源於定於 11 月 5 日星期二舉行的美國大選的不確定性。

Cryptocurrency has been a key talking point during the ongoing campaign period, with Donald Trump courting the industry. For instance, he became the first presidential candidate to speak at a major Bitcoin conference.

加密貨幣一直是競選期間的關鍵話題，唐納德·川普正在向該行業示好。例如，他成為第一位在大型比特幣會議上發言的總統候選人。

If he wins, he will become the first American president to own cryptocurrencies, with Arkham estimating his crypto portfolio at $6 million. JD Vance, his running mate, also owns some Bitcoin.

如果他獲勝，他將成為第一位擁有加密貨幣的美國總統，Arkham 估計他的加密貨幣投資組合為 600 萬美元。他的競選夥伴 JD Vance 也擁有一些比特幣。

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has largely steered clear of the crypto industry. Her most notable mention of crypto signaled that she would focus on regulations to ensure the stability of the sector.

另一方面，卡馬拉·哈里斯基本上避開了加密產業。她對加密貨幣最引人注目的提及表明，她將專注於監管以確保該行業的穩定性。

Hence, these coins have pulled back as it remains unclear who will win. Official polls are close, whereas Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt markets are leaning towards Trump.

因此，由於尚不清楚誰會獲勝，這些代幣已經回落。官方民調結果接近，而 Polymarket、Kalshi 和 PredictIt 市場則傾向於川普。

The market fears uncertainty, which also explains why most American equities declined on Monday, with the Dow Jones dropping 257 points and the S&P 500 declining by 50 points.

市場擔心不確定性，也解釋了為什麼週一大多數美國股市下跌，道瓊指數下跌257點，標準普爾500指數下跌50點。

Our outlook for these coins is that their prices will rebound irrespective of who wins the election.

我們對這些代幣的展望是，無論誰贏得選舉，它們的價格都會反彈。

Moreover, while the election is a key market theme this week, it will cease to be a major factor in the coming weeks.

此外，雖然選舉是本週的關鍵市場主題，但在未來幾週內它將不再是一個主要因素。

For instance, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was a hot topic earlier this year, but its impact has waned in recent months. Similarly, everyone was discussing the Bitcoin halving in April, but that conversation has largely fizzled out.

例如，比特幣 ETF 現貨的批准是今年稍早的熱門話題，但近幾個月其影響力已減弱。同樣，四月每個人都在討論比特幣減半，但這種討論基本上已經失敗了。

Therefore, we expect Bitcoin and other altcoins to rally if Trump wins the election and decline if Harris wins. A Trump victory could drive it higher than the all-time high of $73,800, while her win might push it down to $60,000.

因此，我們預計，如果川普贏得選舉，比特幣和其他山寨幣就會上漲，如果哈里斯獲勝，比特幣和其他山寨幣就會下跌。川普的勝利可能會將其推至歷史最高點 73,800 美元，而她的勝利可能會將其推低至 60,000 美元。

Bitcoin will then rebound later this year as there is still strong demand for the coin. For one, data showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $23 billion in inflows this year, which is set to continue.

由於對比特幣的需求仍然強勁，比特幣將在今年稍後反彈。其一，數據顯示，現貨比特幣 ETF 今年已吸引超過 230 億美元的資金流入，而且這種情況將持續下去。

These coins will also recover as the focus shifts to the so-called Santa Claus rally, which occurs ahead of Christmas.

隨著焦點轉移到聖誕節前發生的所謂聖誕老人集會，這些硬幣也將恢復。

Bitcoin, as shown below, has some positive technical catalysts, including forming a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) have made a bullish crossover.

如下所示，比特幣具有一些積極的技術催化劑，包括隨著 50 天和 200 天加權移動平均線 (WMA) 形成看漲交叉而形成金叉形態。

Bitcoin price chart by TradingView

TradingView 的比特幣價格圖表

These other altcoins, such as Solana, Mantra, and Popcat, will also rebound after the election due to their close correlation with the US dollar.

這些其他山寨幣，如 Solana、Mantra 和 Popcat，由於與美元的密切相關性，也將在大選後反彈。