美国大选和 FOMC 决策临近时的比特币 (BTC)、Popcat (POPCAT)、Solana (SOL) 和 Mantra (OM) 价格分析

周二，随着投资者为美国大选和美联储利率决定做好准备，加密货币市场一片红海。

Investors in the cryptocurrency market prepared for the US election and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Tuesday, leading to a sea of red across the board.

加密货币市场投资者周二为美国大选和美联储利率决定做准备，导致全线红海。

Bitcoin dropped to $67,900, while Solana (SOL), Popcat (POPCAT), and Mantra (OM) fell to $158, $1.2, and $1.28, respectively.

比特币跌至 67,900 美元，而 Solana (SOL)、Popcat (POPCAT) 和 Mantra (OM) 分别跌至 158 美元、1.2 美元和 1.28 美元。

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These were significant reversals considering that Bitcoin peaked at $73,500, just shy of the all-time high of $73,800. Likewise, SOL topped out at $183, indicating a local correction after a 13% decline. POPCAT and OM have also corrected, showing double-digit declines from their highest levels this year.

考虑到比特币最高价为 73,500 美元，距离历史高点 73,800 美元仅差一点，这些都是重大逆转。同样，SOL 最高价为 183 美元，表明在下跌 13% 后出现局部调整。 POPCAT 和 OM 也出现了调整，较今年的最高水平出现了两位数的下降。

Bitcoin and other altcoins have experienced a harsh reversal in recent days as fear gripped the market.

由于恐惧笼罩着市场，比特币和其他山寨币最近几天经历了严重的逆转。

Data from CoinMarketCap showed that the crypto fear and greed index continued to decline, reaching 50 on Tuesday morning. This marked a significant drop from last week when the index was in the greed zone at 66.

CoinMarketCap 的数据显示，加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数持续下降，周二上午达到 50。这标志着该指数较上周处于贪婪区域 66 的大幅下跌。

The fear stems from the uncertainty surrounding the American election, which is set to take place on Tuesday, November 5.

这种担忧源于定于 11 月 5 日星期二举行的美国大选的不确定性。

Cryptocurrency has been a key talking point during the ongoing campaign period, with Donald Trump courting the industry. For instance, he became the first presidential candidate to speak at a major Bitcoin conference.

加密货币一直是竞选期间的一个关键话题，唐纳德·特朗普正在向该行业示好。例如，他成为第一位在大型比特币会议上发言的总统候选人。

If he wins, he will become the first American president to own cryptocurrencies, with Arkham estimating his crypto portfolio at $6 million. JD Vance, his running mate, also owns some Bitcoin.

如果他获胜，他将成为第一位拥有加密货币的美国总统，Arkham 估计他的加密货币投资组合为 600 万美元。他的竞选伙伴 JD Vance 也拥有一些比特币。

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has largely steered clear of the crypto industry. Her most notable mention of crypto signaled that she would focus on regulations to ensure the stability of the sector.

另一方面，卡马拉·哈里斯基本上避开了加密行业。她对加密货币最引人注目的提及表明，她将专注于监管以确保该行业的稳定性。

Hence, these coins have pulled back as it remains unclear who will win. Official polls are close, whereas Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt markets are leaning towards Trump.

因此，由于尚不清楚谁会获胜，这些代币已经回落。官方民意调查结果接近，而 Polymarket、Kalshi 和 PredictIt 市场则倾向于特朗普。

The market fears uncertainty, which also explains why most American equities declined on Monday, with the Dow Jones dropping 257 points and the S&P 500 declining by 50 points.

市场担心不确定性，这也解释了为什么周一大多数美国股市下跌，道琼斯指数下跌257点，标准普尔500指数下跌50点。

Our outlook for these coins is that their prices will rebound irrespective of who wins the election.

我们对这些代币的展望是，无论谁赢得选举，它们的价格都会反弹。

Moreover, while the election is a key market theme this week, it will cease to be a major factor in the coming weeks.

此外，虽然选举是本周的一个关键市场主题，但在未来几周内它将不再是一个主要因素。

For instance, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was a hot topic earlier this year, but its impact has waned in recent months. Similarly, everyone was discussing the Bitcoin halving in April, but that conversation has largely fizzled out.

例如，比特币 ETF 现货的批准是今年早些时候的热门话题，但近几个月其影响力有所减弱。同样，四月份每个人都在讨论比特币减半，但这种讨论基本上已经失败了。

Therefore, we expect Bitcoin and other altcoins to rally if Trump wins the election and decline if Harris wins. A Trump victory could drive it higher than the all-time high of $73,800, while her win might push it down to $60,000.

因此，我们预计，如果特朗普赢得选举，比特币和其他山寨币就会上涨，如果哈里斯获胜，比特币和其他山寨币就会下跌。特朗普的胜利可能会将其推至历史最高点 73,800 美元，而她的胜利可能会将其推低至 60,000 美元。

Bitcoin will then rebound later this year as there is still strong demand for the coin. For one, data showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $23 billion in inflows this year, which is set to continue.

由于对比特币的需求仍然强劲，比特币将在今年晚些时候反弹。首先，数据显示，现货比特币 ETF 今年已吸引超过 230 亿美元的资金流入，而且这种情况还将继续下去。

These coins will also recover as the focus shifts to the so-called Santa Claus rally, which occurs ahead of Christmas.

随着焦点转移到圣诞节前发生的所谓圣诞老人集会，这些硬币也将恢复。

Bitcoin, as shown below, has some positive technical catalysts, including forming a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) have made a bullish crossover.

如下所示，比特币具有一些积极的技术催化剂，包括随着 50 天和 200 天加权移动平均线 (WMA) 形成看涨交叉而形成金叉形态。

Bitcoin price chart by TradingView

TradingView 的比特币价格图表

These other altcoins, such as Solana, Mantra, and Popcat, will also rebound after the election due to their close correlation with the US dollar.

这些其他山寨币，如 Solana、Mantra 和 Popcat，由于与美元的密切相关性，也将在大选后反弹。