美国大选、比特币接近 ATH 等

随着下周美国总统大选的到来，市场将继续消化特朗普获胜的结果，而不仅仅是在美国。

U.S. presidential elections are just around the corner and markets seem to be pricing in a Trump victory. But not just in the U.S. A Chinese software company that builds air control programs, called Wisesoft, has seen its share prices double in the last month due to the association of its Chinese name with Trump’s victory.

美国总统选举即将来临，市场似乎正在消化特朗普的胜利。但不仅仅是在美国，由于其中文名称与特朗普的胜利联系在一起，一家名为 Wisesoft 的空中控制项目中国软件公司的股价在上个月上涨了一倍。

But what if Trump wins and Bitcoin goes down – a so-called “Trump dump”?

但如果特朗普获胜而比特币下跌——所谓的“特朗普暴跌”怎么办？

Well, first up is Peter Schiff, who I described in this week’s episode of Token Narratives as a lamprey feeding off of Bitcoin. Ever the Bitcoin permabear, Schiff believes that since Bitcoin’s performance hasn’t shared the upward momentum of other Trump-related assets, it indicates that even if he wins Bitcoin won’t benefit.

首先是 Peter Schiff，我在本周的 Token Narratives 节目中将他描述为以比特币为食的七鳃鳗。作为比特币的永久看跌者，希夫认为，由于比特币的表现并没有分享其他与特朗普相关的资产的上涨势头，这表明即使他获胜，比特币也不会受益。

Thegiver, a great follow on X, laid out his Bitcoin-Trump thesis in this thread, which basically says that recent BTC inflows are sticky capital. As soon as the election is over, the money will vacate, tanking the price. Also, the kind of liquidity injections necessary to cause a significant price rise are not coming any time soon, let alone in the last quarter of this year.

Thegiver 是 X 的忠实追随者，他在这个帖子中阐述了他的比特币-特朗普论点，该论点基本上说，最近的 BTC 流入是粘性资本。一旦选举结束，资金就会撤离，从而导致价格下跌。此外，导致价格大幅上涨所需的流动性注入不会很快出现，更不用说在今年最后一个季度了。

Finally, there’s the idea that if Trump wins and institutes tariff’s resembling his rhetoric, it will cause goods inflation for the foreseeable future until the U.S. reshores the manufacturing capacity. This could cause the Fed to pause or reverse monetary easing, which would not be good for risk assets such as Bitcoin and crypto.

最后，还有一种观点认为，如果特朗普获胜并征收类似于他的言论的关税，这将在可预见的未来导致商品通胀，直到美国将制造能力回流。这可能会导致美联储暂停或逆转货币宽松政策，这对比特币和加密货币等风险资产不利。

I personally think the likelihood of a Trump victory followed by a dump is unlikely. Dare I say, markets agree.

我个人认为特朗普获胜后又暴跌的可能性不大。我敢说，市场也同意这一点。

Bitcoin made significant headlines this week as it approached its all-time high, breaching $73,500 on Tuesday, just shy of the previous record set in March 2024. This surge marked the first time Bitcoin breached the $73,000 level in over seven months, reflecting strong market momentum and investor interest, particularly in light of recent institutional investments and next week’s election.

比特币本周成为头条新闻，接近历史新高，周二突破 73,500 美元，略低于 2024 年 3 月创下的上一个纪录。这次飙升标志着比特币七个多月来首次突破 73,000 美元水平，反映出强劲的市场势头和投资者兴趣，特别是考虑到最近的机构投资和下周的选举。

Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy, which could be characterized as an institution-like Bitcoin investment vehicle, announced a $42 billion plan to accelerate bitcoin purchases, aiming to strengthen its reserves and position itself as a leader in digital asset investment. Crypto Twitter received this news well, of course, but there were critics.

Michael Saylor 的 Microstrategy 可以被称为类似机构的比特币投资工具，该公司宣布了一项 420 亿美元的加速比特币购买计划，旨在加强其储备，并将自己定位为数字资产投资的领导者。当然，加密推特对这一消息的反应很好，但也有批评者。

While Bitcoin flirted and ultimately failed at breaking the all-time high, Ethereum did what it has done best this year – underperformed. Amidst the agony of Ethereum’s lackluster showing, I thought Jon Charbonneau’s thread on X making the case for Bitcoin’s L2 ecosystem over Ethereum’s, was really twisting the knife into Ethereum bag holders like myself.

虽然比特币犹豫不决并最终未能突破历史新高，但以太坊却做了今年做得最好的事情——表现不佳。在以太坊表现平淡的痛苦中，我认为 Jon Charbonneau 在 X 上的帖子为比特币 L2 生态系统优于以太坊提供了理由，这确实是在向像我这样的以太坊包持有者拧刀。

Then I read Bankless’ Ryan Adams’ reply, which had me laughing in a macabre, bear-cycle kind of way. Let’s hope Ryan’s counter bet, that the ETH FUD is way overplayed, comes true!

然后我读了 Bankless 的 Ryan Adams 的回复，这让我以一种可怕的、熊循环的方式大笑。让我们希望 Ryan 的反赌注，即 ETH FUD 被夸大了，能够成真！

Adams wrote:

亚当斯写道：

We’ve really moved to bearish [ETH] no matter what szn … like not only is Ethereum losing to Solana in every way now it’s probably going to lose all it’s L2s to Bitcoin … Counterbet: the [ETH FUD] is way overplayed and Ethereum has a dominant role in the future.

无论 szn 怎样，我们确实已经转向看跌 [ETH]……以太坊不仅在各方面都输给了 Solana，现在它可能会失去所有 L2 给比特币……反击：[ETH FUD] 被夸大了，以太坊未来具有主导地位。