经济政策及其对比特币的影响

最近的经济政策，尤其是来自美国政府的经济政策，正在为像比特币这样的风险资产带来重大阻力。

The recent actions of the U.S. administration, particularly in terms of economic policies, are setting the stage for significant headwinds for risk-on assets like Bitcoin in the coming six to nine months.

美国政府最近的行动，尤其是在经济政策方面，正在为未来六到九个月的比特币等风险上的资产带来重大逆风。

As the administration focuses on reducing the U.S. deficit through government spending cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies, these measures, while stabilizing the economy, could also lead to a slow and painful market downturn.

由于政府专注于通过政府的削减，关税和移民政策来减少美国的赤字，因此，这些措施虽然稳定经济，也可能导致缓慢而痛苦的市场低迷。

However, despite the gloomy outlook, there are also glimmers of hope on the horizon, such as the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts to offer some reprieve for Bitcoin.

然而，尽管前景令人沮丧，但也有希望的一线希望，例如，美联储降低利率的潜力可以为比特币提供一些缓刑。

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Decoding the Technicals

比特币价格分析：解码技术

The cryptocurrency market has been grappling with macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tariffs and monetary policies, putting immense pressure on Bitcoin's price.

加密货币市场一直在努力应对宏观经济不确定性，包括贸易关税和货币政策，给比特币的价格带来了巨大压力。

As the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross indicator reached new highs, the analysis suggests that Bitcoin might be overvalued, especially in the context of the low transaction volumes observed.

随着交易的网络价值（NVT）黄金交叉指示器达到了新的高点，分析表明比特币可能被高估了，尤其是在观察到的低交易量的情况下。

"The NVT Golden Cross indicator has hit a new high, which might be signaling that Bitcoin is overvalued, especially given the low transaction volumes," the analysis stated.

分析说：“ NVT金色交叉指示器已经达到了新的高度，这可能表明比特币被高估了，尤其是考虑到低交易量。”

According to the latest data from Glassnode, the NVT indicator, which compares Bitcoin's network value to the total transaction volume on the blockchain, has reached a new all-time high of 600.

根据GlassNode的最新数据，将比特币的网络值与区块链的总交易量进行了比较的NVT指标已达到600的新历史高度。

This extreme valuation is typically seen during the later stages of bull markets, as investors pour into the market, bidding up prices rapidly.

当投资者涌入市场时，通常会在牛市的后期阶段看到这种极端估值，从而迅速提高了价格。

According to QChain's analysis, the NVT indicator is now in "uncharted territory."

根据Qchain的分析，NVT指标现在处于“未知领域”。

"This extreme valuation is usually seen in the final stages of a bull market, when there is a frenzy of buying activity and transaction volumes are soaring to new highs. However, we are currently observing very low transaction volumes, which might indicate that the bull market is maturing and we could be approaching a turning point."

“这种极端的估值通常在牛市的最后阶段可以看到，当购买活动和交易量的疯狂飙升至新高点时。但是，我们目前正在观察到非常低的交易量，这可能表明牛市已经成熟，我们可以接近转折点。”

The analysis further explained that if the NVT indicator remains high while transaction volumes remain low, it could be a sign that the market is becoming overvalued and vulnerable to a correction.

分析进一步解释说，如果NVT指标保持较高，而交易量仍然很低，则可能表明市场变得高估了，并且容易受到更正。

"For the NVT indicator to continue to be useful and maintain its accuracy in the long term, we need to see a return to normal transaction volumes, which would allow the indicator to continue to effectively track the market cycles."

“为了使NVT指标从长远来看继续有用并保持其准确性，我们需要查看正常交易量的回报，这将使指标能够继续有效地跟踪市场周期。”

The analysis concluded by stating that if transaction volumes do not pick up, we might see further declines in the Bitcoin price.

分析得出的结论是，如果交易量不收到，我们可能会看到比特币价格进一步下降。

"The fate of Bitcoin in the coming months will depend on how the macroeconomic trends play out and how quickly we see a recovery in transaction volumes."

“在接下来的几个月中，比特币的命运将取决于宏观经济趋势如何发挥作用，以及我们看到交易量的回收率的速度。”

The analysis also noted that the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares Bitcoin's market cap to the total realized value of all coins in circulation, is now cooling down from very hot levels, which might also indicate a market correction.

分析还指出，将比特币的市值与所有发行中所有硬币的总价值进行比较的市场价值（MVRV）比率正在从非常炎热的水平降低，这也可能表明市场校正。

Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index, which tracks market sentiment, is currently showing extreme fear, which is also typical of market bottoms.

此外，追踪市场情绪的恐惧和贪婪指数目前正在表现出极端的恐惧，这也是市场底层的典型特征。

However, despite the bleak outlook, there are also glimmers of hope on the horizon. According to Mohsin, the macroeconomic trends might start to shift in the next six to nine months, which could offer some reprieve for Bitcoin investors.

然而，尽管前景黯淡，但也有希望的一线希望。根据Mohsin的说法，宏观经济趋势可能在未来六到九个月内开始改变，这可能会为比特币投资者提供一些缓刑。

"The administration is planning to cut government spending, raise tariffs, and restrict immigration in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, which could have a knock-on effect on the market. These measures are expected to stabilize the economy but could also lead to a slow and painful market downturn."

“政府计划削减政府的支出，提高关税并限制移民，以减少美国的贸易赤字，这可能会对市场产生连锁反应。这些措施有望稳定经济，但也可能导致缓慢而痛苦的市场低迷。”

However, Mohsin believes that the worst of the downturn might be over by the end of the year, especially if the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates as expected.

但是，Mohsin认为，到年底，最糟糕的衰退可能已经结束，尤其是如果美联储开始按预期降低利率。

"With the U.S. economy slowly recovering from the pandemic, the administration has set its sights on reducing the federal deficit through a multi-pronged approach that includes government spending cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies. These policies are likely to have a significant impact on the market in the coming six to nine months."

“随着美国经济从大流行中逐渐恢复，政府通过多管齐下的方法来降低联邦赤字，其中包括政府支出削减，关税和移民政策。这些政策可能会在即将六个月到九个月的时间内对市场产生重大影响。”

According to Mohsin, the administration plans to cut government spending by $1 trillion over the next decade through a combination of reducing discretionary spending and entitlement programs. These spending cuts are expected to weigh on the market, especially in the short term, as they could lead to slower economic growth.

根据Mohsin的说法，政府计划通过减少可支配支出和应享权利计划的结合，在未来十年内将政府支出减少1万亿美元。预计这些支出的削减将在市场上，尤其是在短期内，因为它们可能会导致经济增长速度降低。

The administration is also planning to increase tariffs on Chinese goods in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Mohsin explained that while the tariffs are intended to protect U.S. jobs and industries, they could also lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses, ultimately slowing down the economy.

政府还计划增加对中国商品的关税，以减少美国的贸易赤字。 Mohsin解释说，虽然关税旨在保护美国就业和行业，但它们也可能导致消费者和企业的价格更高，最终使经济放缓。

Moreover, the administration is planning to reduce legal immigration to the U.S. in an effort to boost wages for low-skilled workers. However, Mohsin noted that this policy could

此外，政府计划减少向美国移民的法律移民，以促进低技能工人的工资。但是，Mohsin指出，这项政策可以