經濟政策及其對比特幣的影響

最近的經濟政策，尤其是來自美國政府的經濟政策，正在為像比特幣這樣的風險資產帶來重大阻力。

The recent actions of the U.S. administration, particularly in terms of economic policies, are setting the stage for significant headwinds for risk-on assets like Bitcoin in the coming six to nine months.

美國政府最近的行動，尤其是在經濟政策方面，正在為未來六到九個月的比特幣等風險上的資產帶來重大逆風。

As the administration focuses on reducing the U.S. deficit through government spending cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies, these measures, while stabilizing the economy, could also lead to a slow and painful market downturn.

由於政府專注於通過政府的削減，關稅和移民政策來減少美國的赤字，因此，這些措施雖然穩定經濟，也可能導致緩慢而痛苦的市場低迷。

However, despite the gloomy outlook, there are also glimmers of hope on the horizon, such as the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts to offer some reprieve for Bitcoin.

然而，儘管前景令人沮喪，但也有希望的一線希望，例如，美聯儲降低利率的潛力可以為比特幣提供一些緩刑。

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Decoding the Technicals

比特幣價格分析：解碼技術

The cryptocurrency market has been grappling with macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tariffs and monetary policies, putting immense pressure on Bitcoin's price.

加密貨幣市場一直在努力應對宏觀經濟不確定性，包括貿易關稅和貨幣政策，給比特幣的價格帶來了巨大壓力。

As the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross indicator reached new highs, the analysis suggests that Bitcoin might be overvalued, especially in the context of the low transaction volumes observed.

隨著交易的網絡價值（NVT）黃金交叉指示器達到了新的高點，分析表明比特幣可能被高估了，尤其是在觀察到的低交易量的情況下。

"The NVT Golden Cross indicator has hit a new high, which might be signaling that Bitcoin is overvalued, especially given the low transaction volumes," the analysis stated.

分析說：“ NVT金色交叉指示器已經達到了新的高度，這可能表明比特幣被高估了，尤其是考慮到低交易量。”

According to the latest data from Glassnode, the NVT indicator, which compares Bitcoin's network value to the total transaction volume on the blockchain, has reached a new all-time high of 600.

根據GlassNode的最新數據，將比特幣的網絡值與區塊鏈的總交易量進行了比較的NVT指標已達到600的新歷史高度。

This extreme valuation is typically seen during the later stages of bull markets, as investors pour into the market, bidding up prices rapidly.

當投資者湧入市場時，通常會在牛市的後期階段看到這種極端估值，從而迅速提高了價格。

According to QChain's analysis, the NVT indicator is now in "uncharted territory."

根據Qchain的分析，NVT指標現在處於“未知領域”。

"This extreme valuation is usually seen in the final stages of a bull market, when there is a frenzy of buying activity and transaction volumes are soaring to new highs. However, we are currently observing very low transaction volumes, which might indicate that the bull market is maturing and we could be approaching a turning point."

“這種極端的估值通常在牛市的最後階段可以看到，當購買活動和交易量的瘋狂飆升至新高點時。但是，我們目前正在觀察到非常低的交易量，這可能表明牛市已經成熟，我們可以接近轉折點。”

The analysis further explained that if the NVT indicator remains high while transaction volumes remain low, it could be a sign that the market is becoming overvalued and vulnerable to a correction.

分析進一步解釋說，如果NVT指標保持較高，而交易量仍然很低，則可能表明市場變得高估了，並且容易受到更正。

"For the NVT indicator to continue to be useful and maintain its accuracy in the long term, we need to see a return to normal transaction volumes, which would allow the indicator to continue to effectively track the market cycles."

“為了使NVT指標從長遠來看繼續有用並保持其準確性，我們需要查看正常交易量的回報，這將使指標能夠繼續有效地跟踪市場週期。”

The analysis concluded by stating that if transaction volumes do not pick up, we might see further declines in the Bitcoin price.

分析得出的結論是，如果交易量不收到，我們可能會看到比特幣價格進一步下降。

"The fate of Bitcoin in the coming months will depend on how the macroeconomic trends play out and how quickly we see a recovery in transaction volumes."

“在接下來的幾個月中，比特幣的命運將取決於宏觀經濟趨勢如何發揮作用，以及我們看到交易量的回收率的速度。”

The analysis also noted that the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares Bitcoin's market cap to the total realized value of all coins in circulation, is now cooling down from very hot levels, which might also indicate a market correction.

分析還指出，將比特幣的市值與所有發行中所有硬幣的總價值進行比較的市場價值（MVRV）比率正在從非常炎熱的水平降低，這也可能表明市場校正。

Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index, which tracks market sentiment, is currently showing extreme fear, which is also typical of market bottoms.

此外，追踪市場情緒的恐懼和貪婪指數目前正在表現出極端的恐懼，這也是市場底層的典型特徵。

However, despite the bleak outlook, there are also glimmers of hope on the horizon. According to Mohsin, the macroeconomic trends might start to shift in the next six to nine months, which could offer some reprieve for Bitcoin investors.

然而，儘管前景黯淡，但也有希望的一線希望。根據Mohsin的說法，宏觀經濟趨勢可能在未來六到九個月內開始改變，這可能會為比特幣投資者提供一些緩刑。

"The administration is planning to cut government spending, raise tariffs, and restrict immigration in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, which could have a knock-on effect on the market. These measures are expected to stabilize the economy but could also lead to a slow and painful market downturn."

“政府計劃削減政府的支出，提高關稅並限制移民，以減少美國的貿易赤字，這可能會對市場產生連鎖反應。這些措施有望穩定經濟，但也可能導致緩慢而痛苦的市場低迷。”

However, Mohsin believes that the worst of the downturn might be over by the end of the year, especially if the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates as expected.

但是，Mohsin認為，到年底，最糟糕的衰退可能已經結束，尤其是如果美聯儲開始按預期降低利率。

"With the U.S. economy slowly recovering from the pandemic, the administration has set its sights on reducing the federal deficit through a multi-pronged approach that includes government spending cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies. These policies are likely to have a significant impact on the market in the coming six to nine months."

“隨著美國經濟從大流行中逐漸恢復，政府通過多管齊下的方法來降低聯邦赤字，其中包括政府的支出削減，關稅和移民政策。這些政策可能會在即將六個月到九個月的時間內對市場產生重大影響。”

According to Mohsin, the administration plans to cut government spending by $1 trillion over the next decade through a combination of reducing discretionary spending and entitlement programs. These spending cuts are expected to weigh on the market, especially in the short term, as they could lead to slower economic growth.

根據Mohsin的說法，政府計劃通過減少可支配支出和應享權利計劃的結合，在未來十年內將政府支出減少1萬億美元。預計這些支出的削減將在市場上，尤其是在短期內，因為它們可能會導致經濟增長速度降低。

The administration is also planning to increase tariffs on Chinese goods in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Mohsin explained that while the tariffs are intended to protect U.S. jobs and industries, they could also lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses, ultimately slowing down the economy.

政府還計劃增加對中國商品的關稅，以減少美國的貿易赤字。 Mohsin解釋說，雖然關稅旨在保護美國就業和行業，但它們也可能導致消費者和企業的價格更高，最終使經濟放緩。

Moreover, the administration is planning to reduce legal immigration to the U.S. in an effort to boost wages for low-skilled workers. However, Mohsin noted that this policy could

此外，政府計劃減少向美國移民的法律移民，以促進低技能工人的工資。但是，Mohsin指出，這項政策可以