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欧洲央行(ECB)经济学家 Ulrich Bindseil 和 Jürgen Schaaf 上周发表了一篇题为“比特币的分配后果”的论文。
Economists at the European Central Bank (ECB) have highlighted the concerning economic effects of bitcoin’s rise, arguing that it leads to a harmful redistribution of wealth. In a paper titled “The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin,” they contend that early investors reap gains at the expense of non-holders and latecomers, ultimately impoverishing a large portion of society.
欧洲中央银行(ECB)的经济学家强调了比特币崛起带来的令人担忧的经济影响,认为这会导致有害的财富再分配。在一篇题为“比特币的分配后果”的论文中,他们认为早期投资者以牺牲非持有者和后来者为代价来获取收益,最终使社会很大一部分人陷入贫困。
The authors assert that bitcoin's shift away from being a digital currency, as envisioned by its creator Satoshi Nakamoto, towards being a speculative investment has had detrimental consequences for the economy. They posit that the gains realized by early investors are essentially taken away from those who did not or could not invest early on.
作者断言,比特币从其创造者中本聪所设想的数字货币转变为投机投资,这对经济产生了不利的后果。他们认为,早期投资者实现的收益基本上是从那些早期没有或不能投资的人手中夺走的。
“If the price of bitcoin rises for good, the existence of bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers,” the paper reads.
该论文写道:“如果比特币的价格永久上涨,那么比特币的存在就会让非持有者和后来者陷入贫困。”
According to the paper, BTC's increasing value does not contribute to overall economic growth or productivity, and it does not generate new wealth. Instead, it merely redistributes existing wealth, favoring those who entered the market early.
该论文认为,比特币价值的增加并不能促进整体经济增长或生产力,也不会产生新的财富。相反,它只是重新分配现有财富,有利于那些早期进入市场的人。
This redistribution, they argue, goes beyond relative losses, where some lose money due to poor timing. They contend that it is an “absolute” loss, where even those who never participated in bitcoin investments suffer economically.
他们认为,这种重新分配超出了相对损失的范围,即一些人由于时机不佳而蒙受损失。他们认为这是一种“绝对”损失,即使是那些从未参与过比特币投资的人也会遭受经济损失。
The gains of the first wave of bitcoin holders are directly linked to the diminished wealth and consumption capacity of others, the authors explain. They note that as bitcoin's price skyrockets, it does not benefit society as a whole but enriches a minority while reducing the purchasing power of those outside the bitcoin bubble. This effect is particularly pronounced for “latecomers,” who enter the bitcoin market at higher prices, and for non-holders, who lose out entirely.
作者解释说,第一波比特币持有者的收益与其他人的财富和消费能力的下降直接相关。他们指出,随着比特币价格的飙升,它并没有造福整个社会,而是让少数人富裕起来,同时降低了比特币泡沫之外的人的购买力。对于以更高价格进入比特币市场的“后来者”来说,这种影响尤其明显,而对于非持有者来说,他们会完全失败。
The paper further suggests that bitcoin's rising value could threaten societal stability and even harm democracy itself.
该论文进一步表明,比特币价值的上涨可能会威胁社会稳定,甚至损害民主本身。
“The consequences of the bitcoin-as-an-investment vision with perpetually increasing bitcoin prices imply a corresponding impoverishment of the rest of society, endangering cohesion, stability, and ultimately democracy,” the authors warn.
作者警告说:“比特币作为一种投资愿景的后果是,比特币价格不断上涨,意味着社会其他部分相应陷入贫困,危及凝聚力、稳定,并最终危及民主。”
As a select few amass greater wealth, it could exacerbate social divisions, leading to economic discontent among the majority who have been effectively priced out of the market or failed to reap its benefits.
随着少数人积累更多财富,它可能会加剧社会分化,导致大多数人因价格过高而感到经济不满,或者未能从市场中获益。
In their analysis, Bindseil and Schaaf argue that bitcoin has failed to fulfill its initial promise of decentralizing finance and creating a better payment system for the world. Instead, its speculative nature and lack of productivity-enhancing capabilities have resulted in a zero-sum game, where early investors accumulate wealth at the expense of the broader population.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 在他们的分析中认为,比特币未能实现其最初的承诺:分散金融并为世界创建更好的支付系统。相反,其投机性质和缺乏提高生产力的能力导致了零和游戏,早期投资者以牺牲更广泛的人口为代价来积累财富。
The symbols of success enjoyed by early bitcoin investors, such as Lamborghinis and Rolexes, come at a significant cost to those who did not or could not get in early on. In essence, the paper presents bitcoin not as an innovative tool that expands wealth but as a mechanism for extracting wealth from the many to the few, worsening inequality and leaving vast segments of society worse off.
兰博基尼和劳力士等早期比特币投资者所享有的成功象征,对于那些没有或无法早期参与的人来说却付出了巨大的代价。从本质上讲,该论文并不是将比特币视为一种扩大财富的创新工具,而是将其视为一种从多数人向少数人榨取财富、加剧不平等并使社会大部分人境况恶化的机制。
On social media, reactions to the ECB paper were strong, with many Bitcoin proponents viewing it as an attack on the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester slammed the paper, calling it a “declaration of war.” He suggested that authorities might use this argument to justify harsh BTC taxes or even bans.
在社交媒体上,对欧洲央行文件的反应强烈,许多比特币支持者将其视为对加密货币的攻击。比特币分析师 Tuur Demeester 猛烈抨击了这篇论文,称其为“宣战”。他建议当局可能会利用这一论点来证明严厉的比特币税收甚至禁令是合理的。
Some criticized the ECB, highlighting its role in reducing Europeans' purchasing power by 30% over the past two decades. Others pointed out that they are both early and late adopters, having recently increased their BTC holdings. According to X user Chartbtc, “Turns out the real cause of the Titanic's sinking wasn't the iceberg, but the lifeboats! ECB: Bitcoin impoverishes the world by giving people a lifeboat from the sinking fiat ship.”
一些人批评欧洲央行,强调其在过去二十年里使欧洲人的购买力下降了 30%。其他人则指出,他们既是早期采用者,也是后期采用者,最近增加了比特币持有量。 X用户Chartbtc表示,“原来泰坦尼克号沉没的真正原因不是冰山,而是救生艇!欧洲央行:比特币为人们提供了一艘正在沉没的法币船上的救生艇,从而使世界陷入贫困。”
What do you think about the ECB authors' perspective on bitcoin's rise benefiting early adopters at the expense of others economically? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
您如何看待欧洲央行作者关于比特币的崛起以牺牲其他人的经济利益为代价使早期采用者受益的观点?在下面的评论中分享您的想法。
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