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歐洲央行(ECB)經濟學家 Ulrich Bindseil 和 Jürgen Schaaf 上週發表了一篇題為「比特幣的分配後果」的論文。
Economists at the European Central Bank (ECB) have highlighted the concerning economic effects of bitcoin’s rise, arguing that it leads to a harmful redistribution of wealth. In a paper titled “The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin,” they contend that early investors reap gains at the expense of non-holders and latecomers, ultimately impoverishing a large portion of society.
歐洲中央銀行(ECB)的經濟學家強調了比特幣崛起帶來的令人擔憂的經濟影響,認為這會導致有害的財富再分配。在一篇題為「比特幣的分配後果」的論文中,他們認為早期投資者以犧牲非持有者和後來者為代價來獲取收益,最終使社會很大一部分人陷入貧困。
The authors assert that bitcoin's shift away from being a digital currency, as envisioned by its creator Satoshi Nakamoto, towards being a speculative investment has had detrimental consequences for the economy. They posit that the gains realized by early investors are essentially taken away from those who did not or could not invest early on.
作者斷言,比特幣從其創造者中本聰所設想的數位貨幣轉變為投機投資,這對經濟產生了不利的後果。他們認為,早期投資者實現的收益基本上是從那些早期沒有或不能投資的人手中奪走的。
“If the price of bitcoin rises for good, the existence of bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers,” the paper reads.
該論文寫道:“如果比特幣的價格永久上漲,那麼比特幣的存在就會讓非持有者和後來者陷入貧困。”
According to the paper, BTC's increasing value does not contribute to overall economic growth or productivity, and it does not generate new wealth. Instead, it merely redistributes existing wealth, favoring those who entered the market early.
該論文認為,比特幣價值的增加並不能促進整體經濟成長或生產力,也不會產生新的財富。相反,它只是重新分配現有財富,有利於那些早期進入市場的人。
This redistribution, they argue, goes beyond relative losses, where some lose money due to poor timing. They contend that it is an “absolute” loss, where even those who never participated in bitcoin investments suffer economically.
他們認為,這種重新分配超出了相對損失的範圍,即一些人由於時機不佳而蒙受損失。他們認為這是一種「絕對」損失,即使是那些從未參與過比特幣投資的人也會遭受經濟損失。
The gains of the first wave of bitcoin holders are directly linked to the diminished wealth and consumption capacity of others, the authors explain. They note that as bitcoin's price skyrockets, it does not benefit society as a whole but enriches a minority while reducing the purchasing power of those outside the bitcoin bubble. This effect is particularly pronounced for “latecomers,” who enter the bitcoin market at higher prices, and for non-holders, who lose out entirely.
作者解釋說,第一波比特幣持有者的收益與其他人的財富和消費能力的下降直接相關。他們指出,隨著比特幣價格的飆升,它並沒有造福整個社會,而是讓少數人富裕起來,同時降低了比特幣泡沫之外的人的購買力。對於以更高價格進入比特幣市場的「後來者」來說,這種影響尤其明顯,而對於非持有者來說,他們會完全失敗。
The paper further suggests that bitcoin's rising value could threaten societal stability and even harm democracy itself.
論文進一步表明,比特幣價值的上漲可能會威脅社會穩定,甚至損害民主本身。
“The consequences of the bitcoin-as-an-investment vision with perpetually increasing bitcoin prices imply a corresponding impoverishment of the rest of society, endangering cohesion, stability, and ultimately democracy,” the authors warn.
作者警告說:“比特幣作為一種投資願景的後果是,比特幣價格不斷上漲,意味著社會其他部分相應陷入貧困,危及凝聚力、穩定,並最終危及民主。”
As a select few amass greater wealth, it could exacerbate social divisions, leading to economic discontent among the majority who have been effectively priced out of the market or failed to reap its benefits.
隨著少數人累積更多財富,它可能會加劇社會分化,導致大多數人因價格過高而感到經濟不滿,或未能從市場中獲益。
In their analysis, Bindseil and Schaaf argue that bitcoin has failed to fulfill its initial promise of decentralizing finance and creating a better payment system for the world. Instead, its speculative nature and lack of productivity-enhancing capabilities have resulted in a zero-sum game, where early investors accumulate wealth at the expense of the broader population.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 在他們的分析中認為,比特幣未能實現其最初的承諾:分散金融並為世界創建更好的支付系統。相反,其投機性質和缺乏提高生產力的能力導致了零和遊戲,早期投資者以犧牲更廣泛的人口為代價來積累財富。
The symbols of success enjoyed by early bitcoin investors, such as Lamborghinis and Rolexes, come at a significant cost to those who did not or could not get in early on. In essence, the paper presents bitcoin not as an innovative tool that expands wealth but as a mechanism for extracting wealth from the many to the few, worsening inequality and leaving vast segments of society worse off.
蘭博基尼和勞力士等早期比特幣投資者所享有的成功象徵,對於那些沒有或無法早期參與的人來說卻付出了巨大的代價。從本質上講,該論文並不是將比特幣視為一種擴大財富的創新工具,而是將其視為一種從多數人向少數人榨取財富的機制,從而加劇不平等並使社會大部分人的境況變得更糟。
On social media, reactions to the ECB paper were strong, with many Bitcoin proponents viewing it as an attack on the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester slammed the paper, calling it a “declaration of war.” He suggested that authorities might use this argument to justify harsh BTC taxes or even bans.
在社群媒體上,對歐洲央行文件的反應強烈,許多比特幣支持者將其視為對加密貨幣的攻擊。比特幣分析師 Tuur Demeester 猛烈抨擊了這篇論文,稱其為「宣戰」。他建議當局可能會利用這一論點來證明嚴厲的比特幣稅收甚至禁令是合理的。
Some criticized the ECB, highlighting its role in reducing Europeans' purchasing power by 30% over the past two decades. Others pointed out that they are both early and late adopters, having recently increased their BTC holdings. According to X user Chartbtc, “Turns out the real cause of the Titanic's sinking wasn't the iceberg, but the lifeboats! ECB: Bitcoin impoverishes the world by giving people a lifeboat from the sinking fiat ship.”
有些人批評歐洲央行,強調其在過去二十年使歐洲人的購買力下降了 30%。其他人則指出,他們既是早期採用者,也是後期採用者,最近增加了比特幣持有量。 X用戶Chartbtc表示,「原來泰坦尼克號沉沒的真正原因不是冰山,而是救生艇!歐洲央行:比特幣為人們提供了一艘正在沉沒的法幣船上的救生艇,從而使世界陷入貧困。
What do you think about the ECB authors' perspective on bitcoin's rise benefiting early adopters at the expense of others economically? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
您如何看待歐洲央行作者關於比特幣的崛起以犧牲其他人的經濟利益為代價使早期採用者受益的觀點?在下面的評論中分享您的想法。
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