不要被周三的市场周转而愚弄

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统宣布对关税的90天停顿的激发，这次集会激发了社会媒体的乐观情绪

Don't be fooled by Wednesday's market turnaround, which saw the S&P 500 equities benchmark climbing by the most since 2008 and significant gains in bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market, as represented by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.

不要被周三的市场周转而愚弄，这是自2008年以来的最高基准攀登，比特币（BTC）和更广泛的加密货币市场的攀登最大，Coindesk 20（CD20）指数代表。

The rally, sparked by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, fueled social-media optimism of an imminent prolonged bull run in both stocks and crypto.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统宣布对关税的暂停90天的宣布激发的集会激发了社会媒体的乐观情绪，对即将长时间的股票和加密货币的公牛持续持续。

That may be overoptimistic, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere, who note that multiweek, double-digit equity price rallies are quite common even during larger bear markets.

据高盛（Goldman Sachs）和其他地方的分析师称，这可能是过分的，他们指出，即使在较大的熊市中，多周，双位股票的价格集会也很普遍。

“In most bear markets, given light positioning, marginal changes in these variables can have amplified effects on markets. As a result, bear market rallies are quite common,” Goldman’s strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer said in a Tuesday note titled “Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market.

“在大多数熊市中，鉴于光明的定位，这些变量的边际变化可能会对市场产生放大的影响。因此，熊市市场集会非常普遍，”由彼得·奥本海默（Peter Oppenheimer）领导的战略团队在星期二的标题为“熊市解剖结构 - 熊市的路径和形状。

There have been 19 global bear market rallies since the 1980s and on an average, “they have lasted 44 days and the MSCI AC World return is 10% to 15%,” the note said.

该公告说，自1980年代以来，全球熊市集会已经发生了19个集会，“他们持续了44天，MSCI AC世界回报率为10％至15％。”

“One of the worst bear markets of history saw about half a dozen major double-digit rallies before all was said and done,” Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, said on X referring to the 1930s. “Is the 90-day bounce a BMR?”

“历史上最糟糕的熊市之一是在说并完成之前，大约有六个重大的两位数集会。” Topdown Charts的创始人兼研究负责人卡勒姆·托马斯（Callum Thomas）在X上指的是1930年代。 “ 90天反弹是BMR吗？”

Whether the recent bounce will mark the beginning of a new bull run or is just a bear market rally remains to be seen. However, some characteristics of a sustained bottom mentioned by Goldman such as attractive valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention and a slowdown in macroeconomic deterioration, are not yet evident.

最近的反弹是否标志着新的公牛奔跑的开始还是只是熊市集会，还有待观察。然而，尚不明显，高盛（Goldman）提到的持续底层提到的持续底部的某些特征尚不明显。

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to offer support any time.

美联储不太可能随时提供支持。

Trump has only postponed tariffs for 90 days, which means trade tensions could escalate again. Plus, tariffs on China continue to rise and if that’s not enough, stocks are not cheap yet.

特朗普仅将关税推迟了90天，这意味着贸易紧张局势可能再次升级。另外，中国的关税继续上涨，如果这还不够，股票还不便宜。