不要被周三的市場周轉而愚弄

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統宣布對關稅的90天停頓的激發，這次集會激發了社會媒體的樂觀情緒

Don't be fooled by Wednesday's market turnaround, which saw the S&P 500 equities benchmark climbing by the most since 2008 and significant gains in bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market, as represented by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.

不要被周三的市場周轉而愚弄，這是自2008年以來的最高基準攀登，比特幣（BTC）和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的攀登最大，Coindesk 20（CD20）指數代表。

The rally, sparked by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, fueled social-media optimism of an imminent prolonged bull run in both stocks and crypto.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統宣布對關稅的暫停90天的宣布激發的集會激發了社會媒體的樂觀情緒，對即將長時間的股票和加密貨幣的公牛持續持續。

That may be overoptimistic, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere, who note that multiweek, double-digit equity price rallies are quite common even during larger bear markets.

據高盛（Goldman Sachs）和其他地方的分析師稱，這可能是過分的，他們指出，即使在較大的熊市中，多周，雙位股票的價格集會也很普遍。

“In most bear markets, given light positioning, marginal changes in these variables can have amplified effects on markets. As a result, bear market rallies are quite common,” Goldman’s strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer said in a Tuesday note titled “Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market.

“在大多數熊市中，鑑於光明的定位，這些變量的邊際變化可能會對市場產生放大的影響。因此，熊市市場集會非常普遍，”由彼得·奧本海默（Peter Oppenheimer）領導的戰略團隊在星期二的標題為“熊市解剖結構 - 熊市的路徑和形狀。

There have been 19 global bear market rallies since the 1980s and on an average, “they have lasted 44 days and the MSCI AC World return is 10% to 15%,” the note said.

該公告說，自1980年代以來，全球熊市集會已經發生了19個集會，“他們持續了44天，MSCI AC世界回報率為10％至15％。”

“One of the worst bear markets of history saw about half a dozen major double-digit rallies before all was said and done,” Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, said on X referring to the 1930s. “Is the 90-day bounce a BMR?”

“歷史上最糟糕的熊市之一是在說並完成之前，大約有六個重大的兩位數集會。” Topdown Charts的創始人兼研究負責人卡勒姆·托馬斯（Callum Thomas）在X上指的是1930年代。 “ 90天反彈是BMR嗎？”

Whether the recent bounce will mark the beginning of a new bull run or is just a bear market rally remains to be seen. However, some characteristics of a sustained bottom mentioned by Goldman such as attractive valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention and a slowdown in macroeconomic deterioration, are not yet evident.

最近的反彈是否標誌著新的公牛奔跑的開始還是只是熊市集會，還有待觀察。然而，尚不明顯，高盛（Goldman）提到的持續底層提到的持續底部的某些特徵尚不明顯。

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to offer support any time.

美聯儲不太可能隨時提供支持。

Trump has only postponed tariffs for 90 days, which means trade tensions could escalate again. Plus, tariffs on China continue to rise and if that’s not enough, stocks are not cheap yet.

特朗普僅將關稅推遲了90天，這意味著貿易緊張局勢可能再次升級。另外，中國的關稅繼續上漲，如果這還不夠，股票還不便宜。