为什么债务变得无法控制，比特币将如何从中受益？本文在能源，债务，地缘政治和比特币之间达到了相似之处。

本文在能源，债务，地缘政治和比特币之间达到了相似之处。

The world is facing an economic crisis that could be even greater than the one in 2008, according to Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad. In a recent tweet, Kiyosaki compares the current situation to the one in the 1930s, warning that things could get worse before they get better.

最畅销的书《富爸爸爸爸》的作者罗伯特·基约萨基（Robert Kiyosaki）说，世界正面临的经济危机可能比2008年的经济危机更大。在最近的一条推文中，Kiyosaki将当前情况与1930年代的情况进行了比较，警告情况可能会变得更糟，然后才会变得更好。

According to Kiyosaki, the world is nearing a "major financial and energy crisis." He adds that the last time such a crisis occurred was in the 1930s, during the Great Depression. Back then, it took World War II to pull the world out of the economic downturn.

根据Kiyosaki的说法，世界正在接近“重大金融和能源危机”。他补充说，上次发生这样的危机是在大萧条期间的1930年代。那时，第二次世界大战使世界摆脱了经济低迷。

The billionaire investor explains that the world is currently facing several challenges, including a decline in energy production, which is the "engine of any economy." Despite advances in technology, Kiyosaki argues that they are not sufficient to overcome the impending crisis.

亿万富翁投资者解释说，世界目前面临着几个挑战，包括能源生产的下降，这是“任何经济的发动机”。尽管技术进步，Kiyosaki认为它们不足以克服即将来临的危机。

"Energy is the engine of any economy. Especially OIL. Without it, no food from farms to cities, cement, water bottles, clothes, etc., will be delivered by the 100s of millions of trucks to every corner of the world," Kiyosaki wrote on Monday.

基约萨基（Kiyosaki）周一写道：“能源是任何经济的发动机。尤其是石油。没有它，农场到城市，水泥，水瓶，衣服等的食物都将被1000亿卡车运送到世界各个角落。”

"There will be no rise in living standards without an increase in energy production. Many countries thought they could compensate for this energy constraint by going into debt, but there are limits. Debt stimulates demand but its effectiveness depends on abundant and cheap energy."

“如果没有能源生产的增加，生活水平将不会提高。许多国家认为，他们可以通过债务来弥补这种能源限制，但存在限制。债务刺激了需求，但其有效性取决于丰富和廉价的能源。”

When energy becomes scarce, Kiyosaki says, debt generates mostly inflation rather than real growth. "Without an increase in the production of goods, any increase in GDP is just an inflationary illusion," he adds.

Kiyosaki说，当能源变得稀缺时，债务主要产生通货膨胀而不是实际增长。他补充说：“没有增加商品的生产，GDP的任何增加只是通货膨胀的幻想。”

Raising purchasing power requires wages to grow faster than inflation, which can only be achieved through productivity gains that directly depend on our ability to extract low-cost energy. "Wages = productivity (quantity of goods produced per person) = machines = energy."

提高购买力的工资要比通货膨胀更快地增长，这只能通过直接取决于我们提取低成本能源的能力来实现。 “工资=生产力（每人生产的商品数量）=机器=能源。”

Every economy needs to grow in order to repay both the debt and the interest. But in the absence of an energy miracle, tough choices will have to be made. Especially since countries are "rolling their debt," triggering a spiral of compound interest.

每个经济都需要增长，以偿还债务和利息。但是，在没有能量奇迹的情况下，必须做出艰难的选择。尤其是由于各国正在“债务”，因此引发了复杂的兴趣。

Hence the exponential trajectory of public debts. In other words, without an exponential increase in energy production, inflation is inevitable. This inflation, in turn, forces an increase in rates, which will sooner or later lead to a default.

因此，公共债务的指数轨迹。换句话说，如果不可避免，通货膨胀是不可避免的。反过来，这种通货膨胀会迫使利率上升，这将迟早会导致违约。

In the face of this threat, Donald Trump is putting increasing pressure on Canada, which accounts for 60% of U.S. oil imports (4 million barrels per day). The goal? To relaunch the Keystone XL pipeline project in order to transport an additional million barrels. Not to mention Greenland, where the United States is hoping to discover new deposits.

面对这种威胁，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对加拿大施加了越来越多的压力，加拿大占美国石油进口的60％（每天400万桶）。目标？重新启动Keystone XL管道项目，以便再运送百万桶。更不用说美国希望发现新存款的格陵兰。

It is China’s colossal coal consumption that is the main driver of global growth. But if we set this coal aside, energy availability per capita has been declining since 2013. In France, oil consumption has dropped by 26% since 2005.

全球增长的主要驱动力是中国的巨大煤炭消费。但是，如果我们将这种煤放在一边，自2013年以来，人均能源供应一直在下降。在法国，自2005年以来，石油消费量下降了26％。

But can technology save us? Hopes are pinned on AI and robotics to drastically increase productivity, leading to a rise in wages and a decrease in the cost of goods. However, this will take time, and in the meantime, the burden of pensions will need to be reduced.

但是技术可以拯救我们吗？希望将人工智能和机器人固定在大幅提高生产率，从而导致工资上升和商品成本下降。但是，这将需要时间，与此同时，养老金负担将需要减轻。

This is an unpopular necessity, as defaulting on debt or printing money ultimately comes down to the same thing: a decrease in purchasing power. But reducing spending will also lead to a decrease in purchasing power. There is no miracle. In France, this essentially means reducing the burden of pensions.

这是一个不受欢迎的必要性，因为债务违约或印刷资金最终归结为同一件事：购买力减少。但是减少支出也会导致购买力降低。没有奇迹。在法国，这本质上意味着减轻养老金负担。

Now, productivity gains from AI and robotics may perhaps lead to an increase in wages; we shall see. But one thing is certain, AI will not replace oil.

现在，AI和机器人技术的生产力可能会导致工资增加。我们会看到的。但是可以肯定的是，AI不会取代石油。

In the meantime, debts are accumulating dangerously. The United States will need to refinance about $28 trillion in debt over the next four years.

同时，债务正在危险地积累。在接下来的四年中，美国将需要再融资约28万亿美元。

Donald Trump is looking to lower rates to ease this burden. That is why the Fed has recently slowed the selling of Treasury bonds acquired since 2008 through Quantitative Easing.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）希望降低利率以减轻这一负担。这就是为什么美联储最近通过量化宽松自2008年以来获得的国库券的销售减慢了。

It even feels like Mr. Trump is doing everything he can to encourage investors to take refuge in U.S. debt (tariffs, bombings in Iran, threats of annexing Greenland, etc.).

甚至感觉特朗普先生正在竭尽所能鼓励投资者避免美国债务（关税，伊朗的轰炸，吞并格陵兰的威胁等）。

Except that this old recipe no longer works. Russia has shown the whole world on one hand that it can stand up to NATO, and on the other hand, that placing reserves in Western debts is very, very risky. The BRICS have taken note of the “freezing” of the 300 billion euros that Russia had invested in the public debts of the Western camp.

除了这个旧食谱不再起作用。俄罗斯一方面向整个世界表明，它可以与北约抗衡，另一方面，将储备金放在西方债务中非常有风险。金砖国家记录了俄罗斯投资于西方营地的公共债务的3000亿欧元的“冻结”。

This brings us to Bitcoin.

这使我们成为比特币。

Larry Fink made shocking statements this Monday. The CEO of BlackRock stated in his annual letter to investors:

拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）本周一令人震惊。贝莱德（Blackrock）的首席执行官在他给投资者的年度信中说：

“The United States has benefited from the dollar being the international reserve currency for decades. But this edge may not last forever. Public debt has been increasing three times faster than GDP since

“几十年来，美国已经从国际储备货币中受益。但是，这种优势可能不会永远持续下去。自从以来，公共债务的增长速度比GDP快三倍