DOGE的新价值周期：政治流动潜力与马斯克的“政府效率部”（DOGE）政治生涯

我们知道这句话：“买谣言，卖新闻”。 10月大选前，我发表的文章《DOGE的新价值周期：政治流动潜力与马斯克的“政府效率部”（DOGE）政治生涯》得到了很好的反响，达到了预期

With the upcoming presidential transition and the potential resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, market speculation has shifted toward cryptocurrency. In this article, we'll explore the cryptocurrency that stands to benefit directly as expectations for an improved regulatory environment rise.

随着即将到来的总统换届和美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）可能辞职，市场猜测已转向加密货币。在本文中，我们将探讨随着监管环境改善的预期上升而直接受益的加密货币。

Last week, a noteworthy phenomenon emerged: Gary Gensler's potential resignation from his position as SEC Chairman has sparked market speculation on the rumor of his departure. Most mainstream media outlets have covered this development, highlighting potential successors and discussing the implications for the cryptocurrency industry.

上周，出现了一个值得注意的现象：Gary Gensler 可能辞去 SEC 主席一职，引发了市场对其离职传闻的猜测。大多数主流媒体都报道了这一发展，强调了潜在的继任者并讨论了对加密货币行业的影响。

In this article, we'll analyze which cryptocurrency will benefit the most directly as expectations for an improved regulatory environment increase. To conclude, I believe the ETH Staking sector will be the one to benefit the most directly, and Lido, as the leading project, may also escape its current price predicament.

在本文中，我们将分析随着对改善监管环境的期望增加，哪种加密货币将最直接受益。总而言之，我认为ETH Stake领域将是最直接受益的领域，而Lido作为龙头项目也可能摆脱目前的价格困境。

Review of Lido's Regulatory Dilemma: Samuels v. Lido DAO Lawsuit

丽都监管困境回顾：Samuels 诉 Lido DAO 诉讼

First, let's provide some basic information. We know that Lido is the leading project in the ETH Staking sector, offering non-custodial technical services to help users participate in Ethereum PoS and earn returns, while lowering the technical threshold and the funding threshold of 32 ETH for Ethereum Native Staking. The project has raised a total of $170 million through three rounds of funding. After its launch in 2022, Lido maintained a market share of around 30% due to its first-mover advantage. As of now, according to Dune's data, Lido still holds a 27% market share, with no significant decline, indicating strong business demand for Lido.

首先，让我们提供一些基本信息。我们知道，Lido是ETH Stake领域的领先项目，提供非托管技术服务帮助用户参与以太坊PoS并获得回报，同时降低了以太坊原生Stake的技术门槛和32 ETH的资金门槛。该项目已通过三轮融资总计筹集1.7亿美元。 2022年上市后，丽都凭借先发优势，保持了30%左右的市场份额。截至目前，根据Dune的数据，Lido仍占据27%的市场份额，没有明显下降，表明Lido的业务需求强劲。

The reason for Lido's current price slump can be traced back to the end of 2023, when its governance token LDO reached an all-time high, with a market cap of $4 billion. At that time, a lawsuit changed the entire price trend: the Samuels v. Lido DAO case, case number 3:23-cv-06492.

Lido当前价格暴跌的原因可以追溯到2023年底，当时其治理代币LDO创下历史新高，市值达到40亿美元。当时，一场诉讼改变了整个价格走势：Samuels诉Lido DAO案，案件编号3:23-cv-06492。

On December 17, 2023, an individual named Andrew Samuels filed a lawsuit against Lido DAO in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, accusing the defendant Lido DAO and its partnered venture capital firms of selling LDO tokens to the public without registration, violating the Securities Act of 1933. Additionally, Lido DAO created a highly profitable business model by pooling users' Ethereum assets for staking but failed to register its LDO tokens with the SEC as required. The plaintiff Andrew Samuels and other investors, who purchased LDO tokens believing in the potential of this business model, ultimately suffered financial losses, and thus they sought legal compensation.

2023 年 12 月 17 日，一位名叫 Andrew Samuels 的个人向美国加州北区地方法院对 Lido DAO 提起诉讼，指控被告 Lido DAO 及其合作风险投资公司未经注册向公众出售 LDO 代币，违反了 1933 年《证券法》。此外，Lido DAO 通过汇集用户的以太坊资产进行质押，创造了高利润的商业模式，但未能按照要求向 SEC 注册其 LDO 代币。原告Andrew Samuels和其他投资者相信这种商业模式的潜力而购买了LDO代币，最终遭受了经济损失，因此他们寻求法律赔偿。

This case not only involves Lido DAO but also includes accusations against its major investors, such as AH Capital Management LLC, Dragonfly Digital Management LLC, Lido DAO, Paradigm Operations LP, and Robot Ventures LP. According to information on the case's progress, these institutions received subpoenas from the court in January 2024, when LDO's price was at its peak. After that, the legal process was limited to the lawyers of the investment institutions and Andrew Samuels, so the related influence did not spread.

此案不仅涉及 Lido DAO，还包括对其主要投资者的指控，如 AH Capital Management LLC、Dragonfly Digital Management LLC、Lido DAO、Paradigm Operations LP 和 Robot Ventures LP。根据案件进展信息，这些机构在2024年1月收到了法院的传票，当时LDO的价格处于最高点。此后，法律程序仅限于投资机构的律师和Andrew Samuels，因此相关影响并未扩散。

It wasn't until the first motion hearing on March 28, 2024, that the ruling was confirmed on April 10, 2024, and after modifying some relevant terms, the case was factually accepted.

直到2024年3月28日第一次动议听证会，才于2024年4月10日确认该裁决，并修改了部分相关条款后，案件才得到事实受理。

Subsequently, on May 28, 2024, Andrew Samuels' legal team unilaterally announced a motion for a default judgment against Lido DAO. The reason for this action was that Lido DAO believed it was not operating as a company and thus ignored the lawsuit. If ultimately declared in default, it would expose Lido to unfavorable judgments, such as not being able to defend itself, and based on previous similar cases like Ooki DAO, the results for the absent party are generally unfavorable. This motion was approved by the court on June 27, requiring Lido DAO to respond within 14 days. Consequently, Lido DAO had to propose a community proposal on July 2, 2024, to hire Dolphin CL, LLC, based in Nevada, as its defense attorney and requested a budget of 200,000 DAI. At this point, the case became widely known in the community. After several rebuttals from both sides, the case seemed to enter a cooling-off period after September.

随后，2024 年 5 月 28 日，Andrew Samuels 的法律团队单方面宣布对 Lido DAO 进行缺席判决的动议。采取这一行动的原因是 Lido DAO 认为自己不是作为公司运营，因此忽视了诉讼。如果最终被宣告违约，Lido将面临无法为自己辩护等不利判决，而根据此前Ooki DAO等类似案件，缺席方的结果普遍是不利的。该动议于6月27日获得法院批准，要求Lido DAO在14天内做出回应。因此，Lido DAO 不得不于 2024 年 7 月 2 日提出社区提案，聘请位于内华达州的 Dolphin CL, LLC 作为其辩护律师，并要求预算为 200,000 DAI。至此，该案在社会上广为人知。经过双方的多次反驳，案件在9月份后似乎进入了冷静期。

Meanwhile, another case had a substantial impact on Lido: the SEC's lawsuit against Consensys Software Inc. on June 28, 2024, case number 24-civ-04578. Note that this date is just one day after the ruling in the Lido case, where Lido DAO was fully informed of the lawsuit's judgment. In this lawsuit, the SEC alleged that Consensys Software Inc. engaged in unregistered securities issuance and sales through its service called MetaMask Staking, and operated

与此同时，另一起案件对Lido产生了重大影响：SEC于2024年6月28日对Consensys Software Inc.提起诉讼，案件编号24-civ-04578。请注意，这一日期距离 Lido 案件裁决仅一天后，Lido DAO 已完全获悉诉讼判决。在这起诉讼中，SEC 指控 Consensys Software Inc. 通过其名为 MetaMask Stake 的服务从事未经注册的证券发行和销售，并运营