天然气市场的奇怪案例

在Twitter/X上以Redpill Drifter为名的一些明智的人站在加利福尼亚州恩西尼塔斯的一条街上，随机询问人们他们是否是否

People are generally unaware of the value of natural gas and how it affects their daily lives. This was highlighted in a recent experiment where people were offered a choice between $20 cash or a 1-ounce gold coin. Despite gold being objectively more valuable, a surprising number of people opted for the cash.

人们通常不知道天然气的价值及其如何影响他们的日常生活。这是在最近的一个实验中强调的，人们提供了20美元现金或1盎司黄金硬币的选择。尽管黄金在客观上更有价值，但许多人选择了现金。

To further illustrate this point, let's delve into the unique characteristics of natural gas markets and the challenges they present.

为了进一步说明这一点，让我们深入研究天然气市场的独特特征及其所面临的挑战。

Natural gas is distinct from many other commodities due to its limited storage capacity. The ratio of storage to consumption is notably small, which creates a delicate balance. Production must closely align with consumption to avoid disruptions.

由于其存储容量有限，天然气与许多其他商品不同。储存与消费的比率明显很小，这会产生微妙的平衡。生产必须与消费紧密保持一致，以避免干扰。

However, natural gas demand can fluctuate drastically, as evidenced by a recent chart from Criterion Research. It shows natural gas-fired power generation in Texas soaring from under 15,000 MW to 44,000 MW over two days in response to a cold snap. Had this weather event not occurred, demand would have remained lower, leaving a significant portion of natural gas unconsumed.

但是，最新的标准研究图表证明了天然气需求可能会急剧波动。它显示，在两天内，得克萨斯州的天然气发电从15,000兆瓦飙升至44,000兆瓦，以响应冷阵。如果没有发生此天气事件，需求将保持较低，而大部分天然气则不受费大量。

Moreover, natural gas is the primary fuel for electricity generation in Texas, heightening the impact of weather on prices. In colder regions, such as Chicago, these effects are amplified.

此外，天然气是德克萨斯州发电的主要燃料，增强了天气对价格的影响。在较冷的地区，例如芝加哥，这些影响得到了放大。

Any significant weather system, whether extreme heat or cold, can disrupt this balance, causing gas prices to spike or plummet. A cold winter followed by a hot summer can lead to pandemonium and high prices, which ultimately affect almost everyone. Conversely, a mild winter can result in a glut and a collapse in prices.

任何重要的天气系统，无论是极高的还是寒冷，都可能破坏这种平衡，从而导致汽油价格飙升或下降。一个寒冷的冬天，随后炎热的夏天会导致狂欢节和高价，这最终会影响几乎所有人。相反，温和的冬天会导致过剩和价格崩溃。

These dramatic shifts occur while most people are unaware. Market observers typically wake up to either a large red or green number, indicating the overnight change in the natural gas price based on the latest weather forecast.

这些戏剧性的转变发生在大多数人不知道的时候。市场观察者通常醒来到大红色或绿色数字，这表明根据最新天气预报，天然气价格过夜。

As a consequence, natural gas traders can generate substantial profits, while producers often experience varying degrees of stress.

结果，天然气交易者可以产生可观的利润，而生产商通常会承受不同程度的压力。

To further complicate matters, let's consider the broader macro forces at play in North America and the world.

为了使事情变得更加复杂，让我们考虑北美和世界上更广泛的宏观力量。

Global demand for LNG is surging, and North America is a major hub for this booming industry. Even Canada is joining the ranks of LNG exporters.

全球对液化天然气的需求正在激增，北美是这个蓬勃发展行业的主要枢纽。甚至加拿大也加入了液化天然气出口商的行列。

But the most significant action is unfolding in the US, where LNG export terminals are being rapidly constructed. This will add several BCF per day of new demand that North American producers must fulfill.

但是，在美国，最重要的作用是在美国迅速构建液化天然气出口终端。这将增加北美生产商必须满足的新需求的几个BCF。

To cap it off, consider that natural gas infrastructure additions typically span multiple decades due to the challenges involved in constructing them.

要关闭它，请考虑天然气基础设施的增加通常跨越数十年，因为构建它们所涉及的挑战。

Now, let's recall that the US was actually an LNG importer in the 1970s, leading to the construction of four LNG import terminals between 1971 and 1980.

现在，让我们回想一下，美国实际上是1970年代的LNG进口商，导致1971年至1980年之间建造了四个LNG进口码头。

By the 1990s, the US was anticipating a shortage of natural gas. Twenty short years later, it had transitioned into a natural gas glut, prompting the first exports in 2016.

到1990年代，美国预计天然气短缺。二十年后，它已转变为天然气过剩，促使2016年首次出口。

And just nine years after this pivotal event, the US has become the world's largest LNG exporter.

在这次关键事件发生九年后，美国已成为世界上最大的液化天然气出口商。

But the party is far from over. The US, particularly under the new administration, is expected to ramp up LNG exports further, with the potential for 10-15 BCF/d of new export capacity coming on stream within the next five years (including Canada, which is part of the North American natural gas system regardless of tariffs).

但是聚会还远远没有结束。预计美国，特别是在新政府的领导下，将进一步加强液化天然气出口，可能在未来五年内出现10-15 bcf/d的新出口能力（包括加拿大，这是北部的一部分美国天然气系统不管您的关税如何）。

Finally, let's not forget the AI/data center boom that's taking off in parallel.

最后，我们不要忘记并行起飞的AI/数据中心繁荣。

Tech companies are accustomed to getting what they want immediately because they have vast financial resources and operate in a fast-paced environment where they can fall behind in a matter of days or weeks.

科技公司习惯于立即获得想要的东西，因为他们拥有庞大的财务资源，并在快节奏的环境中运作，在几天或几周内可以落后。

Here's how tech companies typically function and expect everyone else to keep pace: Elon Musk set up his xAI data center, with 100,000 Nvidia GPUs, in 19 days (according to the Nvidia CEO, this process usually takes 4 years).

这是科技公司通常运作的方式，并期望其他所有人都保持节奏：埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）建立了他的XAI数据中心，其中有100,000个NVIDIA GPU，在19天内（根据NVIDIA首席执行官的说法，此过程通常需要4年）。

Just this week, Apple announced a staggering $500 billion investment in US tech, including a 250,000 square foot server manufacturing facility that is slated to open in 2026 – next year.

就在本周，苹果宣布对美国科技公司进行了惊人的5000亿美元投资，其中包括250,000平方英尺的服务器制造设施，该设施定于明年2026年开放。

In contrast, a new interstate gas pipeline (forget about interprovincial) would require a year to decipher the regulatory code and comply with a thousand regulations and lawsuits. Tech moves at warp speed and seems to expect energy to be right there beside it.

相比之下，一条新的州际天然气管道（忘记省外）将需要一年来破译监管法规，并遵守一千份法规和诉讼。技术以扭曲的速度移动，似乎希望能量在其旁边。

Big tech also prefers clean power and is even considering nuclear as the ultimate option, especially SMRs – small modular reactors – but those won't be here for a decade.

Big Tech也更喜欢清洁能源，甚至考虑核能是最终的选择，尤其是SMR（小型模块化反应堆），但是十年来这些反应堆不会在这里。

So, natural gas will bear the brunt of the AI demand load for the next while, with forecasts ranging from 3-10 BCF/d of new demand being added by 2030.

因此，天然气将在下一期内首当其冲的AI需求负载，预测范围为3-10 bcf/d的新需求，到2030年增加。

Glory days for natural gas producers, right? Well, you’d think so. And maybe it will be thus, prices have risen substantially in the past twelve months (a real winter is the cause of that, but still

天然气生产商的辉煌日子，对吗？好吧，你会这么认为。也许因此，在过去的十二个月中，价格已经大幅上涨（真正的冬天是原因，但仍然