天然氣市場的奇怪案例

在Twitter/X上以Redpill Drifter為名的一些明智的人站在加利福尼亞州恩西尼塔斯的一條街上，隨機詢問人們他們是否是否

People are generally unaware of the value of natural gas and how it affects their daily lives. This was highlighted in a recent experiment where people were offered a choice between $20 cash or a 1-ounce gold coin. Despite gold being objectively more valuable, a surprising number of people opted for the cash.

人們通常不知道天然氣的價值及其如何影響他們的日常生活。這是在最近的一個實驗中強調的，人們提供了20美元現金或1盎司黃金硬幣的選擇。儘管黃金在客觀上更有價值，但許多人選擇了現金。

To further illustrate this point, let's delve into the unique characteristics of natural gas markets and the challenges they present.

為了進一步說明這一點，讓我們深入研究天然氣市場的獨特特徵及其所面臨的挑戰。

Natural gas is distinct from many other commodities due to its limited storage capacity. The ratio of storage to consumption is notably small, which creates a delicate balance. Production must closely align with consumption to avoid disruptions.

由於其存儲容量有限，天然氣與許多其他商品不同。儲存與消費的比率明顯很小，這會產生微妙的平衡。生產必須與消費緊密保持一致，以避免干擾。

However, natural gas demand can fluctuate drastically, as evidenced by a recent chart from Criterion Research. It shows natural gas-fired power generation in Texas soaring from under 15,000 MW to 44,000 MW over two days in response to a cold snap. Had this weather event not occurred, demand would have remained lower, leaving a significant portion of natural gas unconsumed.

但是，最新的標準研究圖表證明了天然氣需求可能會急劇波動。它顯示，在兩天內，得克薩斯州的天然氣發電從15,000兆瓦飆升至44,000兆瓦，以響應冷陣。如果沒有發生此天氣事件，需求將保持較低，而大部分天然氣則不受費大量。

Moreover, natural gas is the primary fuel for electricity generation in Texas, heightening the impact of weather on prices. In colder regions, such as Chicago, these effects are amplified.

此外，天然氣是德克薩斯州發電的主要燃料，增強了天氣對價格的影響。在較冷的地區，例如芝加哥，這些影響得到了放大。

Any significant weather system, whether extreme heat or cold, can disrupt this balance, causing gas prices to spike or plummet. A cold winter followed by a hot summer can lead to pandemonium and high prices, which ultimately affect almost everyone. Conversely, a mild winter can result in a glut and a collapse in prices.

任何重要的天氣系統，無論是極高的還是寒冷，都可能破壞這種平衡，從而導致汽油價格飆升或下降。一個寒冷的冬天，隨後炎熱的夏天會導致狂歡節和高價，這最終會影響幾乎所有人。相反，溫和的冬天會導致過剩和價格崩潰。

These dramatic shifts occur while most people are unaware. Market observers typically wake up to either a large red or green number, indicating the overnight change in the natural gas price based on the latest weather forecast.

這些戲劇性的轉變發生在大多數人不知道的時候。市場觀察者通常醒來到大紅色或綠色數字，這表明根據最新天氣預報，天然氣價格過夜。

As a consequence, natural gas traders can generate substantial profits, while producers often experience varying degrees of stress.

結果，天然氣交易者可以產生可觀的利潤，而生產商通常會承受不同程度的壓力。

To further complicate matters, let's consider the broader macro forces at play in North America and the world.

為了使事情變得更加複雜，讓我們考慮北美和世界上更廣泛的宏觀力量。

Global demand for LNG is surging, and North America is a major hub for this booming industry. Even Canada is joining the ranks of LNG exporters.

全球對液化天然氣的需求正在激增，北美是這個蓬勃發展行業的主要樞紐。甚至加拿大也加入了液化天然氣出口商的行列。

But the most significant action is unfolding in the US, where LNG export terminals are being rapidly constructed. This will add several BCF per day of new demand that North American producers must fulfill.

但是，在美國，最重要的作用是在美國迅速構建液化天然氣出口終端。這將增加北美生產商必須滿足的新需求的幾個BCF。

To cap it off, consider that natural gas infrastructure additions typically span multiple decades due to the challenges involved in constructing them.

要關閉它，請考慮天然氣基礎設施的增加通常跨越數十年，因為構建它們所涉及的挑戰。

Now, let's recall that the US was actually an LNG importer in the 1970s, leading to the construction of four LNG import terminals between 1971 and 1980.

現在，讓我們回想一下，美國實際上是1970年代的LNG進口商，導致1971年至1980年之間建造了四個LNG進口碼頭。

By the 1990s, the US was anticipating a shortage of natural gas. Twenty short years later, it had transitioned into a natural gas glut, prompting the first exports in 2016.

到1990年代，美國預計天然氣短缺。二十年後，它已轉變為天然氣過剩，促使2016年首次出口。

And just nine years after this pivotal event, the US has become the world's largest LNG exporter.

在這次關鍵事件發生九年後，美國已成為世界上最大的液化天然氣出口商。

But the party is far from over. The US, particularly under the new administration, is expected to ramp up LNG exports further, with the potential for 10-15 BCF/d of new export capacity coming on stream within the next five years (including Canada, which is part of the North American natural gas system regardless of tariffs).

但是聚會還遠遠沒有結束。預計美國，特別是在新政府的領導下，將進一步加強液化天然氣出口，可能在未來五年內出現10-15 bcf/d的新出口能力（包括加拿大，這是北部的一部分美國天然氣系統不管您的關稅如何）。

Finally, let's not forget the AI/data center boom that's taking off in parallel.

最後，我們不要忘記並行起飛的AI/數據中心繁榮。

Tech companies are accustomed to getting what they want immediately because they have vast financial resources and operate in a fast-paced environment where they can fall behind in a matter of days or weeks.

科技公司習慣於立即獲得想要的東西，因為他們擁有龐大的財務資源，並在快節奏的環境中運作，在幾天或幾週內可以落後。

Here's how tech companies typically function and expect everyone else to keep pace: Elon Musk set up his xAI data center, with 100,000 Nvidia GPUs, in 19 days (according to the Nvidia CEO, this process usually takes 4 years).

這是科技公司通常運作的方式，並期望其他所有人都保持節奏：埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）建立了他的XAI數據中心，其中有100,000個NVIDIA GPU，在19天內（根據NVIDIA首席執行官的說法，此過程通常需要4年）。

Just this week, Apple announced a staggering $500 billion investment in US tech, including a 250,000 square foot server manufacturing facility that is slated to open in 2026 – next year.

就在本週，蘋果宣布對美國科技公司進行了驚人的5000億美元投資，其中包括250,000平方英尺的服務器製造設施，該設施定於明年2026年開放。

In contrast, a new interstate gas pipeline (forget about interprovincial) would require a year to decipher the regulatory code and comply with a thousand regulations and lawsuits. Tech moves at warp speed and seems to expect energy to be right there beside it.

相比之下，一條新的州際天然氣管道（忘記省外）將需要一年來破譯監管法規，並遵守一千份法規和訴訟。技術以扭曲的速度移動，似乎希望能量在其旁邊。

Big tech also prefers clean power and is even considering nuclear as the ultimate option, especially SMRs – small modular reactors – but those won't be here for a decade.

Big Tech也更喜歡清潔能源，甚至考慮核能是最終的選擇，尤其是SMR（小型模塊化反應堆），但是十年來這些反應堆不會在這裡。

So, natural gas will bear the brunt of the AI demand load for the next while, with forecasts ranging from 3-10 BCF/d of new demand being added by 2030.

因此，天然氣將在下一期內首當其衝的AI需求負載，預測範圍為3-10 bcf/d的新需求，到2030年增加。

Glory days for natural gas producers, right? Well, you’d think so. And maybe it will be thus, prices have risen substantially in the past twelve months (a real winter is the cause of that, but still

天然氣生產商的輝煌日子，對嗎？好吧，你會這麼認為。也許因此，在過去的十二個月中，價格已經大幅上漲（真正的冬天是原因，但仍然