|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CoinDesk 高级分析师詹姆斯·范·斯特拉滕 (James Van Straten) 表示,在当前周期中,散户投资者可能并不多,但他们已经变得越来越成熟。
Retail investors were a big factor in the last crypto bull run, helping drive up prices and enthusiasm around digital assets. Many tasted crypto for the first during the COVID lockdowns of 2021 and 2022. And crypto companies were keen to drive interest among regular folk. The result: Super Bowl ads, celebrity endorsements and stadium sponsorship deals.
散户投资者是上次加密货币牛市的一个重要因素,帮助推高了数字资产的价格和热情。许多人在 2021 年和 2022 年新冠疫情封锁期间首次尝试加密货币。加密货币公司也热衷于激发普通民众的兴趣。结果是:超级碗广告、名人代言和体育场赞助协议。
Then came the crash. This cycle, starting mid-way through 2023, has been more institution-led. These days, the big narratives are around ETFs and slow-but-steady TradFi adoption. And, as yet, retail investors have yet to return in the same numbers. (Memecoins are an exception, which I discussed here.)
然后发生了车祸。这一周期从 2023 年中期开始,更多地是由机构主导的。如今,最重要的话题是围绕 ETF 和缓慢但稳定的 TradFi 采用。而且,到目前为止,散户投资者的回报率还没有达到同样的水平。 (模因币是一个例外,我在这里讨论过。)
I took a deep dive in market data from last year, trying to understand the retail/institutional split, and how the behavior of retail investors has changed from three years ago. Here are my top takeaways.
我深入研究了去年的市场数据,试图了解散户/机构的分化,以及散户投资者的行为与三年前相比有何变化。这是我的主要收获。
The evolution of retail
零售业的演变
We can split retail investors into two categories: shrimps, who hold less than one bitcoin (BTC), and crabs, who hold anywhere between one and ten bitcoin.
我们可以将散户投资者分为两类:持有少于 1 个比特币 (BTC) 的虾,以及持有 1 到 10 个比特币的螃蟹。
In the last six months of 2017, bitcoin soared from $2,000 to $20,000. As hundreds of thousands of bitcoins were accumulated by retail, the price started to climb higher, showing they were chasing the market as crypto hit the mainstream media.
2017 年最后六个月,比特币从 2000 美元飙升至 20000 美元。随着零售积累了数十万比特币,价格开始攀升,这表明随着加密货币冲击主流媒体,他们正在追逐市场。
Read more: Bitcoin Retail Activity Remains Low Despite Recent Rally
阅读更多:尽管近期反弹,但比特币零售活动仍然较低
However, coming out of a prolonged bear market in 2018 and 2019, bitcoin moved again in late-2020 into early 2021 as the price climbed from roughly $10,000 to $60,000. But, as we can see, this cohort was selling bitcoin during the entire period, locking in those gains as they were buyers in the previous bear market instead of buying the top they were selling.
然而,在走出 2018 年和 2019 年的长期熊市后,比特币在 2020 年底至 2021 年初再次上涨,价格从大约 10,000 美元攀升至 60,000 美元。但是,正如我们所看到的,这群人在整个时期都在出售比特币,锁定了这些收益,因为他们是之前熊市的买家,而不是在他们出售的顶部买入。
Then came the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022, where retail investors really showed their intelligence, accumulating the most bitcoin on record. In June 2022, they accumulated over 300k bitcoins, while during the FTX collapse, it was over 525k bitcoins. Even as recently as the March 2024 peak, they were selling into the bull.
随后,2022 年 Luna 和 FTX 崩盘,散户投资者真正展现了他们的智慧,积累了有记录以来最多的比特币。 2022 年 6 月,他们积累了超过 30 万个比特币,而在 FTX 崩溃期间,他们积累了超过 52.5 万个比特币。即使在最近 2024 年 3 月的峰值时,他们也在看涨。
Retail investors are perpetual buyers
散户投资者是永久买家
The second takeaway is that as retail has evolved into “smart money.” There is increasing adoption of a dollar-cost averaging approach or been seen as a perpetual buyer. Again, taking less than ten bitcoins as retail, they currently hold around 15% of the circulating supply, translating to around 3 million bitcoin. But, as a cohort, they continue to increase their holdings with very little sell-side pressure. The data suggests they are the dollar-cost average cohort, and it would be fitting to categorize them as smart money as they continue to grow their bitcoin holdings and not be shaken out by price corrections.
第二个要点是,零售业已经发展成为“智能货币”。人们越来越多地采用平均成本法或被视为永久买家。同样,以不到 10 个零售比特币计算,他们目前持有流通供应量的 15% 左右,相当于约 300 万个比特币。但是,作为一个群体,他们在卖方压力很小的情况下继续增持。数据表明,他们属于美元成本平均水平,因此将他们归类为聪明资金是合适的,因为他们继续增加比特币持有量,并且不会被价格调整所动摇。
This behaviour and mindset are similar to that of an ETF buyer or a passive investor who buys index funds each month. If we look at the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which has seen $21.5 billion of net inflows since launch, there have been only three trading days of net outflows, which is remarkable given bitcoin's volatility. Notably, during the yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5 and 6., IBIT registered $0 of outflows.
这种行为和心态类似于 ETF 买家或每月购买指数基金的被动投资者。如果我们看一下 iShares 比特币信托 ETF (IBIT),该基金自推出以来已实现 215 亿美元的净流入,而只有三个交易日出现净流出,考虑到比特币的波动性,这一数字非常引人注目。值得注意的是,在 8 月 5 日至 6 日日元套利交易平仓期间,IBIT 的资金流出为 0 美元。
The ETF cohort has been underwater several times this year due to bitcoin's multiple bull market corrections. However, they remained unfazed and continued buying. The current average price of the ETF investors is around $58k, so they are currently up 8% on their investment.
由于比特币的多次牛市调整,ETF 群体今年已多次陷入水下。然而,他们仍然不为所动,继续购买。目前 ETF 投资者的平均价格约为 58,000 美元,因此他们的投资目前上涨了 8%。
Liquidations are now a fraction of 2021
清算现在只是 2021 年的一小部分
Lastly, retail isn't being liquidated as much as 2021, when the government gave out cash stimulus on top of everyone being at home, which coincided with peak retail mania. As we can see in the data, liquidations were plentiful in the futures market in 2021, with billions of dollars worth of monthly liquidations becoming a regular occurrence.
最后,零售业的清算程度不会像 2021 年那样严重,当时政府在每个人都待在家里的基础上推出了现金刺激措施,而这恰逢零售狂热的顶峰。从数据中我们可以看到,2021年期货市场爆仓现象十分严重,每月数十亿美元的爆仓已成为家常便饭。
One of the main reasons for this is that a large percentage of futures contracts were margined in bitcoin and not dollars. So, the underlying collateral used for futures trading was bitcoin, which is volatile by nature. This got as high as 70% in 2021. As you can see below, the use of crypto-margin has continued to drop, with the majority of margin-trading in futures now being cash, which is not volatile by nature.
造成这种情况的主要原因之一是,很大一部分期货合约以比特币而不是美元作为保证金。因此,用于期货交易的基础抵押品是比特币,它本质上是波动性的。到 2021 年,这一比例高达 70%。如下所示,加密保证金的使用量持续下降,目前期货保证金交易的大部分是现金,本质上不具有波动性。
As investors matured and the cycle progressed, liquidations have became a feature, but considerably smaller than in 2021.
随着投资者的成熟和周期的进展,清算已成为一个特征,但规模比 2021 年要小得多。
Over the last couple of years, retail investors have become much savvier when investing in bitcoin and have similarities with ETF buyers. As the bitcoin market evolves, the next step is
过去几年,散户投资者在投资比特币时变得更加精明,并且与 ETF 买家有相似之处。随着比特币市场的发展,下一步是
免责声明:info@kdj.com
所提供的信息并非交易建议。根据本文提供的信息进行的任何投资,kdj.com不承担任何责任。加密货币具有高波动性,强烈建议您深入研究后,谨慎投资!
如您认为本网站上使用的内容侵犯了您的版权,请立即联系我们(info@kdj.com),我们将及时删除。
-
- 英国推出数字证券沙盒以促进金融创新
- 2024-10-02 02:25:12
- 英格兰银行(BoE)和金融行为监管局(FCA)最近宣布推出数字证券沙盒(DSS),标志着英国金融体系的发展迈出了重要一步。