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CoinDesk 高級分析師 James Van Straten 表示,在當前週期中,散戶投資者可能不多,但他們已經變得越來越成熟。
Retail investors were a big factor in the last crypto bull run, helping drive up prices and enthusiasm around digital assets. Many tasted crypto for the first during the COVID lockdowns of 2021 and 2022. And crypto companies were keen to drive interest among regular folk. The result: Super Bowl ads, celebrity endorsements and stadium sponsorship deals.
散戶是上次加密貨幣多頭市場的重要因素,幫助推高了數位資產的價格和熱情。許多人在 2021 年和 2022 年新冠疫情封鎖期間首次嘗試加密貨幣。結果是:超級盃廣告、名人代言和體育場贊助協議。
Then came the crash. This cycle, starting mid-way through 2023, has been more institution-led. These days, the big narratives are around ETFs and slow-but-steady TradFi adoption. And, as yet, retail investors have yet to return in the same numbers. (Memecoins are an exception, which I discussed here.)
然後發生了車禍。這一週期從 2023 年中期開始,更多是由機構主導的。如今,最重要的話題是圍繞 ETF 和緩慢但穩定的 TradFi 採用。而且,到目前為止,散戶投資者的回報率還沒有達到相同的水平。 (模因幣是一個例外,我在這裡討論過。)
I took a deep dive in market data from last year, trying to understand the retail/institutional split, and how the behavior of retail investors has changed from three years ago. Here are my top takeaways.
我深入研究了去年的市場數據,試圖了解散戶/機構的分化,以及散戶投資者的行為與三年前相比有何變化。這是我的主要收穫。
The evolution of retail
零售業的演變
We can split retail investors into two categories: shrimps, who hold less than one bitcoin (BTC), and crabs, who hold anywhere between one and ten bitcoin.
我們可以將散戶投資者分為兩類:持有少於 1 個比特幣 (BTC) 的蝦,以及持有 1 到 10 個比特幣的螃蟹。
In the last six months of 2017, bitcoin soared from $2,000 to $20,000. As hundreds of thousands of bitcoins were accumulated by retail, the price started to climb higher, showing they were chasing the market as crypto hit the mainstream media.
2017 年最後六個月,比特幣從 2000 美元飆升至 20000 美元。隨著零售累積了數十萬比特幣,價格開始攀升,這表明隨著加密貨幣衝擊主流媒體,他們正在追逐市場。
Read more: Bitcoin Retail Activity Remains Low Despite Recent Rally
閱讀更多:儘管近期反彈,但比特幣零售活動仍然較低
However, coming out of a prolonged bear market in 2018 and 2019, bitcoin moved again in late-2020 into early 2021 as the price climbed from roughly $10,000 to $60,000. But, as we can see, this cohort was selling bitcoin during the entire period, locking in those gains as they were buyers in the previous bear market instead of buying the top they were selling.
然而,在走出 2018 年和 2019 年的長期熊市後,比特幣在 2020 年底至 2021 年初再次上漲,價格從約 10,000 美元攀升至 60,000 美元。但是,正如我們所看到的,這群人在整個時期都在出售比特幣,鎖定了這些收益,因為他們是之前熊市的買家,而不是在他們出售的頂部買入。
Then came the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022, where retail investors really showed their intelligence, accumulating the most bitcoin on record. In June 2022, they accumulated over 300k bitcoins, while during the FTX collapse, it was over 525k bitcoins. Even as recently as the March 2024 peak, they were selling into the bull.
隨後,2022 年 Luna 和 FTX 崩盤,散戶投資者真正展現了他們的智慧,累積了有史以來最多的比特幣。 2022 年 6 月,他們累積了超過 30 萬個比特幣,而在 FTX 崩潰期間,他們累積了超過 52.5 萬個比特幣。即使在最近 2024 年 3 月的高峰時,他們也在看漲。
Retail investors are perpetual buyers
散戶是永久買家
The second takeaway is that as retail has evolved into “smart money.” There is increasing adoption of a dollar-cost averaging approach or been seen as a perpetual buyer. Again, taking less than ten bitcoins as retail, they currently hold around 15% of the circulating supply, translating to around 3 million bitcoin. But, as a cohort, they continue to increase their holdings with very little sell-side pressure. The data suggests they are the dollar-cost average cohort, and it would be fitting to categorize them as smart money as they continue to grow their bitcoin holdings and not be shaken out by price corrections.
第二個要點是,零售業已經發展成為「智慧貨幣」。人們越來越多地採用平均成本法或被視為永久買家。同樣,以不到 10 個零售比特幣計算,他們目前持有流通供應量的 15% 左右,相當於約 300 萬個比特幣。但是,作為一個群體,他們在賣方壓力很小的情況下繼續增持。數據表明,他們屬於美元成本平均水平,因此將他們歸類為聰明資金是合適的,因為他們繼續增加比特幣持有量,並且不會被價格調整所動搖。
This behaviour and mindset are similar to that of an ETF buyer or a passive investor who buys index funds each month. If we look at the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which has seen $21.5 billion of net inflows since launch, there have been only three trading days of net outflows, which is remarkable given bitcoin's volatility. Notably, during the yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5 and 6., IBIT registered $0 of outflows.
這種行為和心態類似於 ETF 買家或每月購買指數基金的被動投資者。如果我們看一下iShares 比特幣信託ETF (IBIT),該基金自推出以來已實現215 億美元的淨流入,而只有三個交易日出現淨流出,考慮到比特幣的波動性,這一數字非常引人注目。值得注意的是,在 8 月 5 日至 6 日日圓套利交易平倉期間,IBIT 的資金流出為 0 美元。
The ETF cohort has been underwater several times this year due to bitcoin's multiple bull market corrections. However, they remained unfazed and continued buying. The current average price of the ETF investors is around $58k, so they are currently up 8% on their investment.
由於比特幣的多次多頭調整,ETF 族群今年已多次陷入水下。然而,他們仍然不為所動,繼續購買。目前 ETF 投資者的平均價格約為 58,000 美元,因此他們的投資目前上漲了 8%。
Liquidations are now a fraction of 2021
清算現在只是 2021 年的一小部分
Lastly, retail isn't being liquidated as much as 2021, when the government gave out cash stimulus on top of everyone being at home, which coincided with peak retail mania. As we can see in the data, liquidations were plentiful in the futures market in 2021, with billions of dollars worth of monthly liquidations becoming a regular occurrence.
最後,零售業的清算程度不會像 2021 年那樣嚴重,當時政府在每個人都待在家裡的基礎上推出了現金刺激措施,而這恰逢零售狂熱的頂峰。從數據中我們可以看到,2021年期貨市場爆倉現象十分嚴重,每月數十億美元的爆倉已成為家常便飯。
One of the main reasons for this is that a large percentage of futures contracts were margined in bitcoin and not dollars. So, the underlying collateral used for futures trading was bitcoin, which is volatile by nature. This got as high as 70% in 2021. As you can see below, the use of crypto-margin has continued to drop, with the majority of margin-trading in futures now being cash, which is not volatile by nature.
造成這種情況的主要原因之一是,很大一部分期貨合約以比特幣而不是美元作為保證金。因此,用於期貨交易的基礎抵押品是比特幣,它本質上是波動性的。到 2021 年,這一比例高達 70%。
As investors matured and the cycle progressed, liquidations have became a feature, but considerably smaller than in 2021.
隨著投資者的成熟和週期的進展,清算已成為一個特徵,但規模比 2021 年小得多。
Over the last couple of years, retail investors have become much savvier when investing in bitcoin and have similarities with ETF buyers. As the bitcoin market evolves, the next step is
過去幾年,散戶投資者在投資比特幣時變得更加精明,並且與 ETF 買家有相似之處。隨著比特幣市場的發展,下一步是
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