在流动性注入的希望中，加密货币市场经受住了滞胀的不安

在对美国滞胀的担忧中，加密货币市场面临着相互矛盾的信号。比特币和以太币开盘下跌，反映出对高通胀和低增长的担忧。然而，对财政部普通账户流动性注入和香港比特币 ETF 推出的预期提供了看涨情绪。值得关注的关键指标包括美联储对降息的立场以及市场对即将发布的季度退款公告的反应。

Cryptocurrency Market Navigates Stagflation Concerns and Liquidity Injection Expectations

加密货币市场应对滞胀担忧和流动性注入预期

As the crypto market enters a new week of trading, a delicate balance is being struck between the looming threat of stagflation in the United States and the potential injection of liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA). Additionally, the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong has captured the attention of investors worldwide.

随着加密货币市场进入新的交易周，美国迫在眉睫的滞胀威胁与财政部普通账户（TGA）潜在的流动性注入之间正在达成微妙的平衡。此外，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）在香港的推出也吸引了全球投资者的关注。

Bearish Sentiment Prevails Amid Stagflation Fears

在滞胀担忧中，看跌情绪盛行

The predominant bearish tone in the market stems from apprehensions over stagflation, a dreaded economic scenario characterized by persistent inflation and sluggish growth. This worst-case scenario poses a significant threat to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

市场的主要看跌基调源于对滞胀的担忧，滞胀是一种以持续通胀和增长缓慢为特征的可怕经济情景。这种最坏的情况对包括加密货币在内的风险资产构成了重大威胁。

According to a recent note from QCP, the prospect of stagflation is concerning, with the weaker-than-anticipated U.S. GDP growth rate indicating a slowing economy. Simultaneously, the elevated Core PCE inflation measure highlights an ongoing inflationary problem that remains a significant concern for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

根据 QCP 最近的一份报告，滞胀前景令人担忧，美国 GDP 增长率弱于预期，表明经济正在放缓。与此同时，核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀指标的上升凸显了持续存在的通胀问题，这仍然是美联储（Fed）的一个重大担忧。

TGA Liquidity Injection Potential

TGA 流动性注入潜力

In contrast to the bearish stagflation narrative, QCP also points to the possibility of a liquidity injection into the financial system via the TGA. This account, which holds close to USD 1 trillion in assets, combined with the Reverse Repurchase Program (RRP) with USD 400 billion, could release up to $1.4 trillion in liquidity. Such a move would likely buoy all risk assets, potentially including cryptocurrencies.

与看跌滞胀的说法相反，QCP 还指出了通过 TGA 向金融体系注入流动性的可能性。该账户持有近1万亿美元资产，加上4000亿美元的逆回购计划（RRP），可释放高达1.4万亿美元的流动性。此举可能会提振所有风险资产，其中可能包括加密货币。

Hong Kong ETF Launch Underwhelms

香港 ETF 推出表现不佳

The launch of bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong on April 30 initially garnered excitement among investors. However, the revelation that mainland Chinese investors will be unable to trade these ETFs has dampened some of the initial optimism surrounding the launch.

4 月 30 日，比特币 ETF 在香港推出，最初引起了投资者的兴奋。然而，中国大陆投资者将无法交易这些 ETF 的消息削弱了最初围绕该 ETF 推出的乐观情绪。

Bitcoin and Ether Decline

比特币和以太币下跌

At the time of writing, bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading near $62,400, down 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also experienced a decline, trading 3% lower at $3,200. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the most liquid digital assets, has witnessed a decrease of 2.6%, hovering around 2,197 points.

截至撰写本文时，市值领先的加密货币比特币 (BTC) 的交易价格接近 62,400 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌 2.5%。第二大加密货币以太币 (ETH) 也出现下跌，跌幅为 3%，至 3,200 美元。衡量流动性最强的数字资产的CoinDesk 20（CD20）下跌了2.6%，徘徊在2,197点附近。

Polymarket Bets on No Rate Cuts

Polymarket押注不会降息

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, a majority of traders still favor the scenario of no Fed rate cuts, with a 35% probability. However, the likelihood of one rate cut is gradually increasing, standing at 29% compared to 26% the previous week and 14% at the beginning of the month.

在预测市场平台Polymarket上，大多数交易者仍然看好美联储不降息的情景，概率为35%。然而，一次降息的可能性正在逐渐增加，目前为 29%，而前一周为 26%，本月初为 14%。

TGA Refunding Announcement Key

TGA退款公告键

The upcoming quarterly refunding announcement by the U.S. Treasury is closely watched by crypto market analysts. The maintenance or reduction of the TGA's current balance of $750 billion is considered a crucial signal regarding the government's fiscal intentions and its potential impact on economic stability and growth.

美国财政部即将发布的季度退款公告受到加密货币市场分析师的密切关注。维持或减少 TGA 当前 7500 亿美元的余额被认为是有关政府财政意图及其对经济稳定和增长的潜在影响的重要信号。

Conclusion

结论

The crypto market remains in a state of flux, with bullish and bearish forces vying for dominance. The threat of stagflation looms, while the potential for liquidity injection from the TGA offers a glimmer of hope. The Hong Kong ETF launch has provided a temporary distraction, but its impact remains uncertain. As the week progresses, investors will keenly observe market developments and macroeconomic data to gauge the direction of the crypto market in the face of these competing narratives.

加密货币市场仍处于不断变化的状态，看涨和看跌力量争夺主导地位。滞胀的威胁迫在眉睫，而 TGA 注入流动性的潜力带来了一线希望。香港ETF的推出暂时分散了人们的注意力，但其影响仍不确定。随着本周的进展，投资者将敏锐地观察市场发展和宏观经济数据，以在面对这些相互竞争的叙述时判断加密货币市场的方向。