在流動性注入的希望中，加密貨幣市場經歷了滯脹的不安

在對美國滯脹的擔憂中，加密貨幣市場面臨著相互矛盾的訊號。比特幣和以太幣開盤下跌，反映出對高通膨和低成長的擔憂。然而，對財政部普通帳戶流動性注入和香港比特幣 ETF 推出的預期提供了看漲情緒。值得關注的關鍵指標包括聯準會對降息的立場以及市場對即將發布的季度退款公告的反應。

Cryptocurrency Market Navigates Stagflation Concerns and Liquidity Injection Expectations

加密貨幣市場應對滯脹擔憂和流動性注入預期

As the crypto market enters a new week of trading, a delicate balance is being struck between the looming threat of stagflation in the United States and the potential injection of liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA). Additionally, the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong has captured the attention of investors worldwide.

隨著加密貨幣市場進入新的交易週，美國迫在眉睫的滯脹威脅與財政部普通帳戶（TGA）潛在的流動性注入之間正在達成微妙的平衡。此外，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）在香港的推出也吸引了全球投資者的注意。

Bearish Sentiment Prevails Amid Stagflation Fears

在滯脹擔憂中，看跌情緒盛行

The predominant bearish tone in the market stems from apprehensions over stagflation, a dreaded economic scenario characterized by persistent inflation and sluggish growth. This worst-case scenario poses a significant threat to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

市場的主要看跌基調源於對滯脹的擔憂，滯脹是一種以持續通膨和增長緩慢為特徵的可怕經濟情景。這種最壞的情況對包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產構成了重大威脅。

According to a recent note from QCP, the prospect of stagflation is concerning, with the weaker-than-anticipated U.S. GDP growth rate indicating a slowing economy. Simultaneously, the elevated Core PCE inflation measure highlights an ongoing inflationary problem that remains a significant concern for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

根據 QCP 最近的一份報告，滯脹前景令人擔憂，美國 GDP 成長率弱於預期，顯示經濟正在放緩。同時，核心個人消費支出（PCE）通膨指標的上升凸顯了持續存在的通膨問題，這仍然是聯準會（Fed）的一個重大擔憂。

TGA Liquidity Injection Potential

TGA 流動性注入潛力

In contrast to the bearish stagflation narrative, QCP also points to the possibility of a liquidity injection into the financial system via the TGA. This account, which holds close to USD 1 trillion in assets, combined with the Reverse Repurchase Program (RRP) with USD 400 billion, could release up to $1.4 trillion in liquidity. Such a move would likely buoy all risk assets, potentially including cryptocurrencies.

與看跌滯脹的說法相反，QCP 也指出了透過 TGA 向金融體系注入流動性的可能性。該帳戶持有近1兆美元資產，加上4,000億美元的逆回購計畫（RRP），可釋放高達1.4兆美元的流動性。此舉可能會提振所有風險資產，其中可能包括加密貨幣。

Hong Kong ETF Launch Underwhelms

香港 ETF 推出表現不佳

The launch of bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong on April 30 initially garnered excitement among investors. However, the revelation that mainland Chinese investors will be unable to trade these ETFs has dampened some of the initial optimism surrounding the launch.

4 月 30 日，比特幣 ETF 在香港推出，最初引起了投資者的興奮。然而，中國大陸投資者將無法交易這些 ETF 的消息削弱了最初圍繞該 ETF 推出的樂觀情緒。

Bitcoin and Ether Decline

比特幣和以太幣下跌

At the time of writing, bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading near $62,400, down 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also experienced a decline, trading 3% lower at $3,200. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the most liquid digital assets, has witnessed a decrease of 2.6%, hovering around 2,197 points.

截至撰寫本文時，市值領先的加密貨幣比特幣 (BTC) 的交易價格接近 62,400 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌 2.5%。第二大加密貨幣以太幣 (ETH) 也出現下跌，跌幅為 3%，至 3,200 美元。衡量流動性最強的數位資產的CoinDesk 20（CD20）下跌了2.6%，徘徊在2,197點附近。

Polymarket Bets on No Rate Cuts

Polymarket押注不會降息

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, a majority of traders still favor the scenario of no Fed rate cuts, with a 35% probability. However, the likelihood of one rate cut is gradually increasing, standing at 29% compared to 26% the previous week and 14% at the beginning of the month.

在預測市場平台Polymarket上，大多數交易者仍看好聯準會不降息的情景，機率為35%。然而，一次降息的可能性正在逐漸增加，目前為 29%，而前一周為 26%，本月初為 14%。

TGA Refunding Announcement Key

TGA退款公告鍵

The upcoming quarterly refunding announcement by the U.S. Treasury is closely watched by crypto market analysts. The maintenance or reduction of the TGA's current balance of $750 billion is considered a crucial signal regarding the government's fiscal intentions and its potential impact on economic stability and growth.

美國財政部即將發布的季度退款公告受到加密貨幣市場分析師的密切關注。維持或減少 TGA 目前 7500 億美元的餘額被認為是有關政府財政意圖及其對經濟穩定和成長的潛在影響的重要信號。

Conclusion

結論

The crypto market remains in a state of flux, with bullish and bearish forces vying for dominance. The threat of stagflation looms, while the potential for liquidity injection from the TGA offers a glimmer of hope. The Hong Kong ETF launch has provided a temporary distraction, but its impact remains uncertain. As the week progresses, investors will keenly observe market developments and macroeconomic data to gauge the direction of the crypto market in the face of these competing narratives.

加密貨幣市場仍處於不斷變化的狀態，看漲和看跌力量爭奪主導地位。滯脹的威脅迫在眉睫，而 TGA 注入流動性的潛力帶來了一線希望。香港ETF的推出暫時分散了人們的注意力，但影響仍不確定。隨著本週的進展，投資者將敏銳地觀察市場發展和宏觀經濟數據，以便在面對這些相互競爭的敘述時判斷加密貨幣市場的方向。