在今天的美联储利率决定之前，加密货币市场正在降低风险

每个人都在谈论再次降息的可能性，据称这将刺激经济和金融市场的冒险行为。

The crypto market is showing signs of risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today. Everyone is talking about the possibility of another rate cut, which is expected to stimulate risk-taking in the economy and financial markets.

在今天美联储利率决定之前，加密货币市场显示出避险迹象。大家都在谈论再次降息的可能性，预计这将刺激经济和金融市场的风险承担。

But here's the catch: the central bank is expected to signal three rate cuts for 2025, not the four it projected in September, and revise growth and inflation forecasts higher. So, it comes as no surprise that bitcoin and ether are both trading nearly 2% lower, leading to bigger losses in small-cap tokens. Pudgy Penguins' PENGU token, for example, has crashed over 50% since Tuesday's airdrop.

但问题是：央行预计将在 2025 年降息三次，而不是 9 月份预计的四次，并上调增长和通胀预测。因此，比特币和以太币的交易价格均下跌近 2%，导致小盘代币遭受更大损失也就不足为奇了。例如，Pudgy Penguins 的 PENGU 代币自周二空投以来已暴跌超过 50%。

The front-end call premiums in both BTC and ETH have already taken a hit, indicating a more cautious market sentiment. Traditional markets are also factoring in a hawkish cut.

BTC和ETH的前端看涨期权溢价已经受到打击，表明市场情绪更加谨慎。传统市场也考虑到了鹰派降息的因素。

However, experienced traders will tell you that when expectations are skewed too heavily in one direction, there's always potential for disappointment. To put it another way, if interest rate projections remain unchanged or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell eases concerns about sticky inflation during his press conference while maintaining a data-dependent approach, we could see a nice bump in risk assets — including cryptos.

然而，经验丰富的交易者会告诉您，当预期过度偏向一个方向时，总是有可能令人失望。换句话说，如果利率预测保持不变，或者美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在新闻发布会上缓解对粘性通胀的担忧，同时保持依赖数据的做法，我们可能会看到包括加密货币在内的风险资产大幅上涨。

If that happens, VIRTUAL, the native coin of AI and tokenization platform Virtuals Protocol, might stand out, having risen 11% in Asian hours. "AI within crypto is shaping up to be a fascinating trend, especially in social trading, where data-driven insights and automation can empower traders," said Neal Wen, head of global business development at Kronos Research.

如果发生这种情况，人工智能和代币化平台 Virtuals Protocol 的原生代币 VIRTUAL 可能会脱颖而出，在亚洲时段上涨 11%。 Kronos Research 全球业务开发主管 Neal Wen 表示：“加密货币中的人工智能正在成为一种令人着迷的趋势，尤其是在社交交易中，数据驱动的见解和自动化可以为交易者提供帮助。”

Another candidate is leading on-chain perpetuals platform HyperLiquid's HYPE token, which is trading 4% higher at press time. According to social media chatter, the token's rally is being fueled by its limited exchange availability and traders' reluctance to sell.

另一个候选者是领先的链上永续合约平台 HyperLiquid 的 HYPE 代币，截至发稿时，该代币的交易价格上涨了 4%。根据社交媒体的讨论，该代币的上涨是由于其有限的交易可用性和交易者不愿出售而推动的。

That said, don't let your guard down. Some observers believe that the pace of future rate cuts will be largely determined by Friday's core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

也就是说，不要放松警惕。一些观察人士认为，未来降息的步伐将在很大程度上取决于周五公布的核心PCE数据，这是美联储首选的通胀指标。

As Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, put it: "The Federal Reserve is set to announce a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut today — it's last for the year. Future cuts may rely heavily on Friday's Core PCE report, which is expected to hold steady at 3.3% year over year. Any surprises with rising inflation could rattle the markets, especially since bitcoin is already feeling some bearish pressure and is lacking the upward momentum."

正如 BRN 分析师 Valentin Fournier 所说：“美联储今天将宣布降息 25 个基点，这是今年最后一次降息。未来的降息可能在很大程度上取决于周五的核心 PCE 报告，该报告预计同比稳定在 3.3%，通胀上升的任何意外都可能扰乱市场，特别是因为比特币已经感受到了一些看跌压力，并且缺乏上涨动力。”

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal is raising red flags over the decline in Chinese government bond yields, suggesting that the world's second-largest economy may be slipping into a depression, a prolonged period of sharp economic decline and rising unemployment.

与此同时，《华尔街日报》对中国国债收益率下降发出了危险信号，暗示世界第二大经济体可能陷入萧条、经济长期大幅下滑和失业率上升。

These concerns could easily destabilize global markets, so it's a good time to stay alert.

这些担忧很容易破坏全球市场的稳定，因此现在是保持警惕的好时机。

What to Watch

看什么

Token Events

代币事件

Conferences:

会议：

Early PENGU buyers are learning the perils of low liquidity the hard way.

早期的 PEGU 买家正在经历惨痛的教训，认识到流动性低下的危险。

The token of the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem dropped amid massive hype on Tuesday. Its charm was its association with an already popular NFT collection, leading to a buying frenzy by traders hoping for quick gains. But the token had garnered the necessary liquidity at launch, meaning early, enthusiastic buyers ended up buying the token at a 5 trillion market capitalization.

周二，矮胖企鹅生态系统的代币在大规模炒作中下跌。它的魅力在于它与已经流行的 NFT 系列的联系，导致希望快速获利的交易者疯狂购买。但该代币在推出时就获得了必要的流动性，这意味着早期热情的买家最终以 5 万亿市值购买了该代币。

Liquidity is the ability to buy or sell an asset without causing a significant price change. For PENGU, the initial liquidity pools were shallow, meaning there weren't enough buyers and sellers to keep the price stable.

流动性是指在不引起重大价格变化的情况下购买或出售资产的能力。对于PENGU来说，最初的流动性池很浅，这意味着没有足够的买家和卖家来保持价格稳定。

One unlucky trader lost big on the airdrop, turning $10,000 into less than $5 in seconds. Just before the official airdrop, they had swapped 45 wrapped Solana for PENGU but got only 78 tokens due to a glitch in Jupiter's decentralized exchange. The trade was sent to a low-liquidity pool on Raydium, inflating the token's price to an unrealistic $14 trillion market cap. This mishap was due to low liquidity, where even small trades can cause huge price swings.

一名不幸的交易员在空投中损失惨重，几秒钟内将 10,000 美元变成了不到 5 美元。就在官方空投之前，他们用 45 个包装好的 Solana 换成了 PENGU，但由于 Jupiter 去中心化交易所的故障，只得到了 78 个代币。该交易被发送到 Raydium 上的低流动性池，将代币的价格推高至不切实际的 14 万亿美元市值。这次事故是由于流动性低造成的，即使是小额交易也可能导致价格大幅波动。

The PENGU token was created weeks before its launch, leading to premature trading and significant losses for those who jumped in too early without checking the market cap.

PENGU 代币是在推出前几周创建的，导致过早交易，并导致那些在没有检查市值的情况下过早买入的人遭受重大损失。

Derivatives Positioning

衍生品仓位

Market Movements:

市场走势：

Bitcoin Stats:

比特币统计：

Basket Performance

篮子表现

Technical Analysis

技术分析

Crypto Equities

加密股票

ETF Flows

ETF 流量

Spot BTC ETFs:

现货 BTC ETF：

Spot ETH ETFs

现货 ETH ETF

Source: Farside Investors

资料来源：Farside 投资者

Overnight Flows

隔夜流量

Chart of the Day

每日图表

While You Were Sleeping

当你熟睡时

In the Ether

在以太中