在今天的聯準會利率決定之前，加密貨幣市場正在降低風險

每個人都在談論再次降息的可能性，據稱這將刺激經濟和金融市場的冒險。

The crypto market is showing signs of risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today. Everyone is talking about the possibility of another rate cut, which is expected to stimulate risk-taking in the economy and financial markets.

在今天聯準會利率決定之前，加密貨幣市場顯示出避險跡象。大家都在談論再次降息的可能性，預計這將刺激經濟和金融市場的風險承擔。

But here's the catch: the central bank is expected to signal three rate cuts for 2025, not the four it projected in September, and revise growth and inflation forecasts higher. So, it comes as no surprise that bitcoin and ether are both trading nearly 2% lower, leading to bigger losses in small-cap tokens. Pudgy Penguins' PENGU token, for example, has crashed over 50% since Tuesday's airdrop.

但問題是：央行預計在 2025 年降息三次，而不是 9 月預計的四次，並上調成長和通膨預測。因此，比特幣和以太幣的交易價格均下跌近 2%，導緻小盤代幣遭受更大損失也就不足為奇了。例如，Pudgy Penguins 的 PENGU 代幣自周二空投以來已暴跌超過 50%。

The front-end call premiums in both BTC and ETH have already taken a hit, indicating a more cautious market sentiment. Traditional markets are also factoring in a hawkish cut.

BTC和ETH的前端買權溢價已經受到打擊，顯示市場情緒更加謹慎。傳統市場也考慮了鷹派降息的因素。

However, experienced traders will tell you that when expectations are skewed too heavily in one direction, there's always potential for disappointment. To put it another way, if interest rate projections remain unchanged or Fed Chairman Jerome Powell eases concerns about sticky inflation during his press conference while maintaining a data-dependent approach, we could see a nice bump in risk assets — including cryptos.

然而，經驗豐富的交易者會告訴您，當預期過度偏向一個方向時，總是有可能令人失望。換句話說，如果利率預測保持不變，或者聯準會主席鮑威爾在新聞發布會上緩解對黏性通膨的擔憂，同時保持依賴數據的做法，我們可能會看到包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產大幅上漲。

If that happens, VIRTUAL, the native coin of AI and tokenization platform Virtuals Protocol, might stand out, having risen 11% in Asian hours. "AI within crypto is shaping up to be a fascinating trend, especially in social trading, where data-driven insights and automation can empower traders," said Neal Wen, head of global business development at Kronos Research.

如果發生這種情況，AI 和代幣化平台 Virtuals Protocol 的原生代幣 VIRTUAL 可能會脫穎而出，在亞洲時段上漲 11%。 Kronos Research 全球業務開發主管 Neal Wen 表示：“加密貨幣中的人工智慧正在成為一種令人著迷的趨勢，尤其是在社交交易中，數據驅動的見解和自動化可以為交易者提供幫助。”

Another candidate is leading on-chain perpetuals platform HyperLiquid's HYPE token, which is trading 4% higher at press time. According to social media chatter, the token's rally is being fueled by its limited exchange availability and traders' reluctance to sell.

另一個候選人是領先的鏈上永續合約平台 HyperLiquid 的 HYPE 代幣，截至發稿時，該代幣的交易價格上漲了 4%。根據社群媒體的討論，該代幣的上漲是由於其有限的交易可用性和交易者不願出售而推動的。

That said, don't let your guard down. Some observers believe that the pace of future rate cuts will be largely determined by Friday's core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

也就是說，不要放鬆警戒。一些觀察家認為，未來降息的步伐將在很大程度上取決於週五公佈的核心PCE數據，這是聯準會首選的通膨指標。

As Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, put it: "The Federal Reserve is set to announce a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut today — it's last for the year. Future cuts may rely heavily on Friday's Core PCE report, which is expected to hold steady at 3.3% year over year. Any surprises with rising inflation could rattle the markets, especially since bitcoin is already feeling some bearish pressure and is lacking the upward momentum."

正如 BRN 分析師 Valentin Fournier 所說：「聯準會今天將宣布降息 25 個基點，這是今年最後一次降息。未來的降息可能在很大程度上取決於週五的核心 PCE 報告，該報告預計將同比穩定在3.3%，通膨上升的任何意外都可能擾亂市場，特別是因為比特幣已經感受到了一些看跌壓力，並且缺乏上漲動力。

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal is raising red flags over the decline in Chinese government bond yields, suggesting that the world's second-largest economy may be slipping into a depression, a prolonged period of sharp economic decline and rising unemployment.

同時，《華爾街日報》對中國國債殖利率下降發出了危險信號，暗示世界第二大經濟體可能陷入蕭條、經濟長期大幅下滑和失業率上升。

These concerns could easily destabilize global markets, so it's a good time to stay alert.

這些擔憂很容易破壞全球市場的穩定，因此現在是保持警惕的好時機。

What to Watch

看什麼

Token Events

代幣事件

Conferences:

會議：

Early PENGU buyers are learning the perils of low liquidity the hard way.

早期的 PEGU 買家正在經歷慘痛的教訓，認識到流動性低下的危險。

The token of the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem dropped amid massive hype on Tuesday. Its charm was its association with an already popular NFT collection, leading to a buying frenzy by traders hoping for quick gains. But the token had garnered the necessary liquidity at launch, meaning early, enthusiastic buyers ended up buying the token at a 5 trillion market capitalization.

週二，矮胖企鵝生態系統的代幣在大規模炒作中下跌。它的魅力在於它與已經流行的 NFT 系列的聯繫，導致希望快速獲利的交易者瘋狂購買。但該代幣在推出時就獲得了必要的流動性，這意味著早期熱情的買家最終以 5 兆市值購買了該代幣。

Liquidity is the ability to buy or sell an asset without causing a significant price change. For PENGU, the initial liquidity pools were shallow, meaning there weren't enough buyers and sellers to keep the price stable.

流動性是指在不引起重大價格變動的情況下購買或出售資產的能力。對於PENGU來說，最初的流動性池很淺，這意味著沒有足夠的買家和賣家來保持價格穩定。

One unlucky trader lost big on the airdrop, turning $10,000 into less than $5 in seconds. Just before the official airdrop, they had swapped 45 wrapped Solana for PENGU but got only 78 tokens due to a glitch in Jupiter's decentralized exchange. The trade was sent to a low-liquidity pool on Raydium, inflating the token's price to an unrealistic $14 trillion market cap. This mishap was due to low liquidity, where even small trades can cause huge price swings.

一名不幸的交易員在空投中損失慘重，幾秒鐘內將 10,000 美元變成了不到 5 美元。就在官方空投之前，他們用 45 個包裝好的 Solana 換成了 PENGU，但由於 Jupiter 去中心化交易所的故障，只得到了 78 個代幣。該交易被發送到 Raydium 上的低流動性池，將代幣的價格推高至不切實際的 14 兆美元市值。這次事故的原因是流動性低，即使是小額交易也可能導致價格大幅波動。

The PENGU token was created weeks before its launch, leading to premature trading and significant losses for those who jumped in too early without checking the market cap.

PENGU 代幣是在推出前幾週創建的，導致過早交易，並導致那些在沒有檢查市值的情況下過早買入的人遭受重大損失。

Derivatives Positioning

衍生性商品部位

Market Movements:

市場走勢：

Bitcoin Stats:

比特幣統計：

Basket Performance

籃子表現

Technical Analysis

技術分析

Crypto Equities

加密股票

ETF Flows

ETF 流量

Spot BTC ETFs:

現貨 BTC ETF：

Spot ETH ETFs

現貨 ETH ETF

Source: Farside Investors

資料來源：Farside 投資者

Overnight Flows

隔夜流量

Chart of the Day

每日圖表

While You Were Sleeping

當你熟睡時

In the Ether

在以太中