当关税担忧登机时，美国消费者的信心下降至两年低点

密歇根大学的最新消费者情绪调查周五发布，显示4月初的信心急剧下降。

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed confidence dropped sharply in early April.

密歇根大学的最新消费者情绪调查周五发布，显示4月初的信心急剧下降。

The index fell to 50.8, the weakest reading since June 2022. That’s a steep fall from March’s 57 and far below economists’ forecast of 53.8.

该指数降至50.8，是自2022年6月以来最薄弱的读数。这是3月57日的急剧下降，远低于经济学家的预测53.8。

Rising concerns over President Trump’s sweeping tariffs appear to be a major driver. Inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 6.7% — the highest since 1981. Just a month ago, that number was 4.9%. Back in January, it was 3.3%.

对特朗普总统的全面关税的关注似乎是主要驾驶员。通货膨胀对未来一年的预期跃升至6.7％，这是自1981年以来最高的。仅一个月前，这一数字为4.9％。早在一月份，它是3.3％。

Long-term inflation worries climbed too. Consumers now expect 4.4% inflation over the next five to 10 years, up from 4.1% in March.

长期通货膨胀也会攀升。现在，消费者预计未来五到十年的通货膨胀率为4.4％，高于3月的4.1％。

The survey, conducted between March 25 and April 8, captured early reactions to Trump’s April 2 “reciprocal tariff” announcement. It did not, however, reflect responses to his 90-day pause on select levies or this week’s hike in China tariffs.

这项调查是在3月25日至4月8日之间进行的，捕获了对特朗普4月2日“互惠关税”公告的早期反应。但是，这并没有反映出他对某些税款的90天停顿或本周在中国关税中的响应。

“Consumers report multiple warning signs,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s survey. “Business conditions, incomes, inflation expectations, and labor market outlooks all worsened this month.”

“消费者报告了多个警告信号，”密歇根大学调查主任乔安妮·胡说。 “本月的业务状况，收入，通货膨胀期望和劳动力市场前景都在恶化。”

Since December, sentiment has dropped over 30% — a signal that households now view trade policies as a lasting economic threat.

自12月以来，情绪下降了30％以上，这表明家庭现在将贸易政策视为持久的经济威胁。

“Households appear to have come to the same conclusion as markets: the tariffs will do lasting damage to the U.S. economy,” said Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

资本经济学助理经济学家哈里·钱伯斯（Harry Chambers）表示：“家庭似乎与市场得出的结论相同：关税将对美国经济造成持久损害。”

Despite growing fear, inflation metrics remain relatively benign. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.4% in April, a slight slowdown from March’s 3.5% gain.

尽管恐惧越来越大，通货膨胀指标仍然相对良性。劳工统计局表示，核心生产商价格指数（PPI）在4月增长了3.4％，比3月3.5％的增长略有下降。

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) also slowed, increasing 2.8% year-over-year — the smallest rise in four months. Economists had expected a reading of 2.9%, anticipating a slight uptick from March’s 2.7%.

核心消费者价格指数（CPI）也减慢了，同比增长了2.8％，这是四个月内最小的上升。经济学家预计阅读2.9％，预计3月份的2.7％会有所增加。

Meanwhile, markets have been battered by Trump’s trade policies. Even after Wednesday’s historic rebound, the S&P 500 is still down more than 7% since the president’s April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs.

同时，市场受到特朗普的贸易政策的打击。即使在周三的历史性反弹之后，自4月2日宣布宣布广泛关税的总统宣布以来，标准普尔500指数仍然下降了7％以上。