當關稅擔憂登機時，美國消費者的信心下降至兩年低點

密歇根大學的最新消費者情緒調查週五發布，顯示4月初的信心急劇下降。

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed confidence dropped sharply in early April.

密歇根大學的最新消費者情緒調查週五發布，顯示4月初的信心急劇下降。

The index fell to 50.8, the weakest reading since June 2022. That’s a steep fall from March’s 57 and far below economists’ forecast of 53.8.

該指數降至50.8，是自2022年6月以來最薄弱的讀數。這是3月57日的急劇下降，遠低於經濟學家的預測53.8。

Rising concerns over President Trump’s sweeping tariffs appear to be a major driver. Inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 6.7% — the highest since 1981. Just a month ago, that number was 4.9%. Back in January, it was 3.3%.

對特朗普總統的全面關稅的關注似乎是主要駕駛員。通貨膨脹對未來一年的預期躍升至6.7％，這是自1981年以來最高的。僅一個月前，這一數字為4.9％。早在一月份，它是3.3％。

Long-term inflation worries climbed too. Consumers now expect 4.4% inflation over the next five to 10 years, up from 4.1% in March.

長期通貨膨脹也會攀升。現在，消費者預計未來五到十年的通貨膨脹率為4.4％，高於3月的4.1％。

The survey, conducted between March 25 and April 8, captured early reactions to Trump’s April 2 “reciprocal tariff” announcement. It did not, however, reflect responses to his 90-day pause on select levies or this week’s hike in China tariffs.

這項調查是在3月25日至4月8日之間進行的，捕獲了對特朗普4月2日“互惠關稅”公告的早期反應。但是，這並沒有反映出他對某些稅款的90天停頓或本週在中國關稅中的響應。

“Consumers report multiple warning signs,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s survey. “Business conditions, incomes, inflation expectations, and labor market outlooks all worsened this month.”

“消費者報告了多個警告信號，”密歇根大學調查主任喬安妮·胡說。 “本月的業務狀況，收入，通貨膨脹期望和勞動力市場前景都在惡化。”

Since December, sentiment has dropped over 30% — a signal that households now view trade policies as a lasting economic threat.

自12月以來，情緒下降了30％以上，這表明家庭現在將貿易政策視為持久的經濟威脅。

“Households appear to have come to the same conclusion as markets: the tariffs will do lasting damage to the U.S. economy,” said Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics.

資本經濟學助理經濟學家哈里·錢伯斯（Harry Chambers）表示：“家庭似乎與市場得出的結論相同：關稅將對美國經濟造成持久損害。”

Despite growing fear, inflation metrics remain relatively benign. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.4% in April, a slight slowdown from March’s 3.5% gain.

儘管恐懼越來越大，通貨膨脹指標仍然相對良性。勞工統計局表示，核心生產商價格指數（PPI）在4月增長了3.4％，比3月3.5％的增長略有下降。

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) also slowed, increasing 2.8% year-over-year — the smallest rise in four months. Economists had expected a reading of 2.9%, anticipating a slight uptick from March’s 2.7%.

核心消費者價格指數（CPI）也減慢了，同比增長了2.8％，這是四個月內最小的上升。經濟學家預計閱讀2.9％，預計3月份的2.7％會有所增加。

Meanwhile, markets have been battered by Trump’s trade policies. Even after Wednesday’s historic rebound, the S&P 500 is still down more than 7% since the president’s April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs.

同時，市場受到特朗普的貿易政策的打擊。即使在周三的歷史性反彈之後，自4月2日宣布宣布廣泛關稅的總統宣布以來，標準普爾500指數仍然下降了7％以上。