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Bitwise 首席投资官 (CIO) Matt Hougan 在 2025 年 1 月 13 日新发布的备忘录中认为,企业购买比特币作为其国债的现象比大多数投资者意识到的更为普遍和影响力。
As Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan points out in a new memo, MicroStrategy’s BTC acquisitions dwarfed the entire new supply of Bitcoin mined last year. Now, Hougan argues that a much larger trend is being overlooked by most investors.
正如 Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 在一份新备忘录中指出的那样,MicroStrategy 的 BTC 收购量使去年开采的比特币新供应量相形见绌。现在,霍根认为,大多数投资者都忽视了一个更大的趋势。
Hougan's Key Points:
侯根的要点:
- MicroStrategy's BTC purchases were more than all the Bitcoin mined in 2024.
- MicroStrategy 的 BTC 购买量超过了 2024 年开采的所有比特币。
- 70 publicly traded companies own Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
- 70 家上市公司的资产负债表上拥有比特币。
- Private companies also hold at least 368,000 BTC.
- 私人公司也持有至少 368,000 BTC。
- Hougan predicts that hundreds of companies will buy Bitcoin for their treasuries in the next 12-18 months.Hougan's full memo can be found below.
- Hougan 预测,未来 12-18 个月内,数百家公司将购买比特币作为其国债。Hougan 的完整备忘录如下。
Companies Buying Bitcoin: An Overlooked Megatrend
购买比特币的公司:一个被忽视的大趋势
MicroStrategy is often the center of attention when it comes to companies buying Bitcoin. But as we've highlighted before, there's a much bigger story that most investors are overlooking.
当谈到购买比特币的公司时,MicroStrategy 往往是关注的焦点。但正如我们之前强调的那样,大多数投资者都忽视了一个更大的故事。
To put MicroStrategy's purchases in perspective, they're ranked 220th globally by market capitalization (a bit bigger than Chipotle and a bit smaller than Sherwin-Williams). Despite their modest size, their BTC acquisitions are astronomical.
从整体上看,MicroStrategy 的收购规模按市值排名全球第 220 位(比 Chipotle 大一点,比 Sherwin-Williams 小一点)。尽管规模不大,但他们收购的比特币却是天文数字。
Last year, MicroStrategy bought ~257,000 BTC… more than all the Bitcoin mined in 2024 (218,829 BTC). To put this another way, MicroStrategy purchased an amount of Bitcoin that would take, at current production rates, more than seven years to mine at fully diluted prices.
去年,MicroStrategy 购买了约 257,000 BTC……比 2024 年开采的所有比特币(218,829 BTC)还要多。换句话说,MicroStrategy 购买了一定数量的比特币,按照目前的生产率,以完全稀释的价格开采需要七年多的时间。
And they're not done yet. MicroStrategy has announced plans to raise over $42 billion to purchase more Bitcoin (again, at fully diluted prices and current production rates, that's about 2.6 years’ worth of new supply).
他们还没有完成。 MicroStrategy 宣布计划筹集超过 420 亿美元来购买更多比特币(同样,按照完全稀释的价格和当前的生产率,这相当于约 2.6 年的新增供应量)。
To give you an idea of what might happen if really big companies start to take a page from MicroStrategy's book, consider this: Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is 20x the size of MicroStrategy.
为了让您了解如果真正的大公司开始效仿 MicroStrategy 的书中可能会发生什么,请考虑一下:Mark Zuckerberg 的 Meta 的大小是 MicroStrategy 的 20 倍。
But MicroStrategy is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other companies are already including BTC on their balance sheets. In total, 70 publicly traded companies own Bitcoin on their balance sheets. This includes crypto-centric firms like Coinbase and Marathon Digital, as well as mainstream players like Block, Tesla, Semler Scientific, and Mercado Libre.
但 MicroStrategy 只是冰山一角。许多其他公司已经将比特币纳入其资产负债表中。总共有 70 家上市公司的资产负债表上拥有比特币。这包括 Coinbase 和 Marathon Digital 等以加密货币为中心的公司,以及 Block、Tesla、Semler Scientific 和 Mercado Libre 等主流企业。
Together—excluding MicroStrategy—these companies hold 141,302 BTC. Block.one and Marathon each have large (and undisclosed) positions that are likely to be at least 100,000 BTC each (Block.one is valued at $3.8 billion and Marathon at $5.2 billion, and MicroStrategy is valued at $6.3 billion).
这些公司(不包括 MicroStrategy)总共持有 141,302 比特币。 Block.one 和 Marathon 各自拥有大量(且未公开)头寸,可能各自至少有 100,000 BTC(Block.one 估值为 38 亿美元,Marathon 估值为 52 亿美元,MicroStrategy 估值为 63 亿美元)。
Private companies also hold significant amounts of bitcoin. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.com shows that private firms like SpaceX and Block.one collectively own at least 368,043 BTC.
私营公司也持有大量比特币。 BitcoinTreasuries.com 的数据显示,SpaceX 和 Block.one 等私营公司总共拥有至少 368,043 枚 BTC。
That's significant. It means that, even today, MicroStrategy is less than 50% of the corporate BTC market. And their share will be a small fraction of it eventually.
这很重要。这意味着,即使在今天,MicroStrategy 的企业 BTC 市场份额还不到 50%。他们的份额最终将只是其中的一小部分。
Why Bitcoin Corporate Adoption Is Set To Explode
为什么比特币企业采用率将呈爆炸式增长
Two factors have historically constrained corporate adoption: reputational risk and unfavorable accounting rules. Both have shifted rapidly.
历史上有两个因素限制了企业的采用:声誉风险和不利的会计规则。两者都发生了迅速转变。
Last year, the CEO of one large publicly traded company faced huge hurdles in adding Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Negative media coverage, potential shareholder lawsuits, and regulatory attention loomed over the decision.
去年,一家大型上市公司的首席执行官在将比特币添加为库存资产方面面临巨大障碍。媒体的负面报道、潜在的股东诉讼和监管机构的关注笼罩着这一决定。
But reputational risks have peeled back significantly in the past few months. Post-election, with Washington embracing crypto at the highest levels, it's becoming much more commonplace—and popular—to own Bitcoin.
但过去几个月,声誉风险已大幅下降。选举后,随着华盛顿在最高层拥抱加密货币,拥有比特币变得更加普遍和流行。
A new accounting guideline, ASU 2023-08, was also introduced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Previously, BTC was classified as an “intangible asset” subject to impairment testing. This forced companies to write down the value of their Bitcoin if its price fell (but never allowed them to mark the value back up if it rose). Now, companies can mark BTC to market and book a profit when its price appreciates.
财务会计准则委员会还推出了新的会计准则 ASU 2023-08。此前,BTC被归类为“无形资产”,需要进行减值测试。这迫使公司在比特币价格下跌时减记其价值(但不允许他们在价格上涨时将其价值重新标记)。现在,公司可以将比特币计入市场,并在其价格上涨时获利。
If 70 companies were willing to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets when, from an accounting perspective, it literally could only go down, imagine how many will add it… now.
如果 70 家公司愿意将比特币添加到他们的资产负债表中,而从会计角度来看,它实际上只会下降,想象一下有多少公司会添加它......现在。
Two hundred? Five hundred? A thousand?
二百?五百?一千?
Some skepticism remains as to why companies choose to hold BTC. But corporate motivations largely mirror those of individual investors. Some companies are greedy… Others are worried about the debasement of the dollar… Still others want to signal that they're part of the Bitcoin tribe… Some probably just have a hunch.
对于公司选择持有比特币的原因仍然存在一些怀疑。但企业的动机很大程度上反映了个人投资者的动机。一些公司很贪婪……另一些公司担心美元贬值……还有一些公司想表明他们是比特币部落的一部分……有些公司可能只是有一种预感。
Ultimately, understanding each company's motivations is less important than observing the magnitude of overall demand. You just need to look at the numbers and ask yourself two questions:
最终,了解每家公司的动机并不重要,重要的是观察总体需求的大小。您只需查看数字并问自己两个问题:
1. Where does all of this demand from companies look like it's going?
1. 公司的所有这些需求看起来都流向了哪里?
2. And what
2.还有什么
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